Looking at the late vote in the VBM states;
In AZ, the 2022 late reported vote moved R as expected, but only marginally compared to 2020. The senate race never got particularly close and Hobbs kept an early lead that I believe was narrower than Biden's.
In CA, it looks like the late reported vote moved D, but only slightly. I remember Newsom having about 58% at the end of counting on election night and now he has about 59%. This is quite distinct from the dramatic r trend with the late vote in 2020, but also nothing like the dramatic Dem trend in 2018. In the 2021 recall, the late vote also moved R, but less so than in 2020. CA went all VBM in 2020.
In CO, i think the late reported vote moved slightly R. Boebert took back a lead late, for example.
The late reported vote moved dramatically Dem in NV, which was consistent with 2020. Trump was within 1% after the last election night update. NV went all VBM in 2020.
OR and WA look like they might have gotten slightly more Dem over time?
In UT, McMullin improved notably with the late reported vote.
No, Hobbs won that first Maricopa ballot drop by 16%, Kelly by 20%. In 2020 it was Biden+10.
