GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[MT Treasurer]

The way I see it Biden wins the state by 1-2% or so and both GA-R and GA-S go to a runoff (with Ossoff getting very close to 50%+1 in November but no cigar). If Republicans pull off an upset in one of NC/ME/MI and hold the other competitive races (big if), Senate control will then come down to the January runoff elections in Georgia, and it won’t be pretty.

I just can't see Dems winning a runoff in Georgia if Biden has already won.  There's a scenario in there where Trump squeaks by and Republicans lose the senate due to a double runoff.

I really wouldn’t be too sure. Between Biden winning the state, the Democratic coalition consisting of more high-propensity voters than in 2008, the very limited number of persuadable voters, and a potentially disastrous transition period, all bets are off this time. The one thing that might save Loeffler (and Perdue) is if the runoff decides Senate control, but even then her (and any other Republican's) path would be very, very narrow. The state is just so close to gone for Republicans that any Republican victories in 2021/2022 would probably amount to little other than a (narrow) last hurrah. I’d be shocked if any Republican won the runoff by more than 3 points.

[WD]

The way I see it Biden wins the state by 1-2% or so and both GA-R and GA-S go to a runoff (with Ossoff getting very close to 50%+1 in November but no cigar). If Republicans pull off an upset in one of NC/ME/MI and hold the other competitive races (big if), Senate control will then come down to the January runoff elections in Georgia, and it won’t be pretty.

I just can't see Dems winning a runoff in Georgia if Biden has already won.  There's a scenario in there where Trump squeaks by and Republicans lose the senate due to a double runoff.

I really wouldn’t be too sure. Between Biden winning the state, the Democratic coalition consisting of more high-propensity voters than in 2008, the very limited number of persuadable voters, and a potentially disastrous transition period, all bets are off this time. The one thing that might save Loeffler (and Perdue) is if the runoff decides Senate control, but even then her (and any other Republican's) path would be very, very narrow. The state is just so close to gone for Republicans that any Republican victories in 2021/2022 would probably amount to little other than a (narrow) last hurrah. I’d be shocked if any Republican won the runoff by more than 3 points.

I don’t think it would be that shocking, however, if Ossoff won outright on 11/3 if Biden carries the state by a decent margin (about 2 or so), it’s not the mostly likely of outcomes, but certainly plausible. A result like that would definitely signal the state is a lost cause for the GOP.

[7,052,770]

The way I see it Biden wins the state by 1-2% or so and both GA-R and GA-S go to a runoff (with Ossoff getting very close to 50%+1 in November but no cigar). If Republicans pull off an upset in one of NC/ME/MI and hold the other competitive races (big if), Senate control will then come down to the January runoff elections in Georgia, and it won’t be pretty.

Trump's actions in November and December will make the Republican brand so toxic, that Democrats will win either runoff. Republicans better pray Perdue gets over 50 in November if they want to hold that seat.

[Ljube]

Who has a better chance against Warnock in a runoff?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Who has a better chance against Warnock in a runoff?

I'd argue Collins at this point. Loeffler's campaign is a joke

[Ljube]

Who has a better chance against Warnock in a runoff?

I'd argue Collins at this point. Loeffler's campaign is a joke

Why is he behind Loeffler in the polls then?

[wbrocks67]

Who has a better chance against Warnock in a runoff?

I'd argue Collins at this point. Loeffler's campaign is a joke

Why is he behind Loeffler in the polls then?

I mean, just barely. But her pandering to the far right is so over the top (and even more so than Collins at this point) that makes her uniquely toxic for a GE now

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It was missed here, but one Republican candidate withdrew from the race. Wayne Johnson's name will remain on the ballot but he has dropped out and endorsed Doug Collins. That leaves 19 active candidates on the ballot plus one eligible write-in.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who has a better chance against Warnock in a runoff?

I'd argue Collins at this point. Loeffler's campaign is a joke

Why is he behind Loeffler in the polls then?

Probably her barrage of ads, which are cringeworthy but memorable.  It's still close, though; I can see either of them making the runoff, and I agree Collins would be the stronger candidate against Warnock.

[Ferguson97]

God I hope Warnock can get up to 50% because I really don't think we can win any runoff scenario

[GALeftist]

I actually feel like Warnock has a pretty good shot in a hypothetical runoff, especially if it's Loeffler. In 2018, Barrow only lost the runoff for SOS by 4 points, even though turnout had been deflated. Especially if there are shenanigans in Trump's lame duck period, as we all know there will be, I'm hopeful that that will motivate increased turnout for the runoff.

[Rookie Yinzer]

God I hope Warnock can get up to 50% because I really don't think we can win any runoff scenario

It has been explained over and over again how and why a runoff would be a tossup.

[7,052,770]

God I hope Warnock can get up to 50% because I really don't think we can win any runoff scenario

The runoff will largely depend on how stupid Trump acts in November, December, and January.

[Heebie Jeebie]

God I hope Warnock can get up to 50% because I really don't think we can win any runoff scenario

The runoff will largely depend on how stupid Trump acts in November, December, and January.

So what you're saying is Warnock is a lock....

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I still am confused why people think Loeffler is stronger than Collins, after the insider trading scandal.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I still am confused why people think Loeffler is stronger than Collins, after the insider trading scandal.

The war chest and public polling tending to show her with an edge over him (I think she'd be marginally weaker in a runoff and that the spending is just helping her consolidate Republican support that would otherwise go to Collins).

[Roll Roons]

I still am confused why people think Loeffler is stronger than Collins, after the insider trading scandal.

Who does? There's not only the insider trading thing, but she is one of the most fake candidates I've ever seen. Trying to pivot from being an elitist multimillionaire to a MAGA warrior in less than a year? People can spot phonies from a mile away.

[Lognog]

I still am confused why people think Loeffler is stronger than Collins, after the insider trading scandal.

At the end of the day neither one of the is going to come out of this in a great position. They're spending so much money and go so far right that by the end of it, they're weakening themselves for the general. Warnock is cleanly consolidating the democratic base and can save up for the general

[KaiserDave]

I am VERY excited for the Warnock Loeffler race. The contrast will be delicious.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I still am confused why people think Loeffler is stronger than Collins, after the insider trading scandal.

At the end of the day neither one of the is going to come out of this in a great position. They're spending so much money and go so far right that by the end of it, they're weakening themselves for the general. Warnock is cleanly consolidating the democratic base and can save up for the general

If there is one thing that has never changed, it is Republicans propensity through sheer stupidity to just piss away Senate seats.

[Ljube]

I'm more and more convinced that there is hidden Collins support not showing in the polls and that he will prevail on Election Day.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I still am confused why people think Loeffler is stronger than Collins, after the insider trading scandal.

At the end of the day neither one of the is going to come out of this in a great position. They're spending so much money and go so far right that by the end of it, they're weakening themselves for the general. Warnock is cleanly consolidating the democratic base and can save up for the general

If there is one thing that has never changed, it is Republicans propensity through sheer stupidity to just piss away Senate seats.

Given their built-in advantage in the Senate, they can afford to piss away a Senate seat or two every few years.

[Pericles]

I still am confused why people think Loeffler is stronger than Collins, after the insider trading scandal.

At the end of the day neither one of the is going to come out of this in a great position. They're spending so much money and go so far right that by the end of it, they're weakening themselves for the general. Warnock is cleanly consolidating the democratic base and can save up for the general

If there is one thing that has never changed, it is Republicans propensity through sheer stupidity to just piss away Senate seats.

Given their built-in advantage in the Senate, they can afford to piss away a Senate seat or two every few years.

They're already pissing away support on a big-picture level by governing in a way that makes them unpopular. They could moderate and so get a neutral national environment and like R+5% in the tipping point Senate seat, but instead they insist on pushing the national environment towards the Democrats so the tipping-point seat is very competitive.

[Blair]

Surely Loeffler is miles easier to beat? It's generally always easier to depress turnout from your opposition if there's a vicious primary & ethical concerns with the winner.

I mean I can easily imagine the type of voter who will vote for Collins but not Loeffler in the run-off. I doubt that there's as many of the fabled 'moderate white women' who Loeffler was suppose to attract who would not vote for Collins.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I still am confused why people think Loeffler is stronger than Collins, after the insider trading scandal.

At the end of the day neither one of the is going to come out of this in a great position. They're spending so much money and go so far right that by the end of it, they're weakening themselves for the general. Warnock is cleanly consolidating the democratic base and can save up for the general

If there is one thing that has never changed, it is Republicans propensity through sheer stupidity to just piss away Senate seats.

Given their built-in advantage in the Senate, they can afford to piss away a Senate seat or two every few years.

They're already pissing away support on a big-picture level by governing in a way that makes them unpopular. They could moderate and so get a neutral national environment and like R+5% in the tipping point Senate seat, but instead they insist on pushing the national environment towards the Democrats so the tipping-point seat is very competitive.

Sure, but you could argue they're making a rational trade-off between electoral success and policy success.  Yes, by moderating they could perhaps increase their margins a bit in the Senate....but you only need 50 votes to slash taxes for the super-rich and allow corporations to poison our water and air.  Republicans don't seem to really care about anything except "tax reform" and "deregulation," so why not self-select for those candidates most fanatically committed to these unpopular positions?