MT Congressional Redistricting

[Adam Griffin]

(The GOP/white district was Trump +36 & Gianforte +9 in 2016, Rosendale +11 in 2018 & Trump +33 in 2020)

[Adam Griffin]

(The GOP/white district was Trump +36 & Gianforte +9 in 2016, Rosendale +11 in 2018 & Trump +33 in 2020)

This would be a gross D gerrymander which even this "independent" commission almost certainly wouldn’t go for. Splitting Yellowstone County and shoving Billings into MT-1 while not even touching NW Montana is a dead giveaway.

It’s a fun exercise, but you can just draw a more "compact" seat that would go D in a D-leaning or neutral year without splitting Yellowstone County.

Anyway, the only interesting question here is whether Gallatin will be split or Helena will be in the eastern district.

Not sure I really get the controversy over splitting a state's largest county (even in MT). Eighty percent of Yellowstone voters are contained within one district (including virtually all of Billings proper), and the remainder of the county is a land mass twice the size of Rhode Island with 40,000 people living in it.

I would have expected you to be much more upset about Helena!

[Adam Griffin]

Since my original map went for a combo of population density & Democratic performance, here's another that just focuses on starting in Glorious NW Montana and including the densest counties possible while minimizing square mileage for CD1 as a whole.

(Adding Gallatin would require splitting it anyway + making CD1 a bit larger in square mileage)

[Adam Griffin]

This seems like the cleanest map, no county splits and almost all the Native American population is in MT-2 (for whatever that's worth).






https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ee8c186-bb8e-4fe5-9aba-21e276830b1b

Exluding the flathead area it's even geographically consistent,  keeping the Long Mountain to Custer NF areas with the mountainous west.

This isn't made to maximize Dem votes in the western district either.

Not bad: Trump +2.51 in 2020 (49.92-47.41).

[Adam Griffin]

This seems like the cleanest map, no county splits and almost all the Native American population is in MT-2 (for whatever that's worth).






https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ee8c186-bb8e-4fe5-9aba-21e276830b1b

Exluding the flathead area it's even geographically consistent,  keeping the Long Mountain to Custer NF areas with the mountainous west.

This isn't made to maximize Dem votes in the western district either.

Not bad: Trump +2.51 in 2020 (49.92-47.41).

Trying to find 2016 numbers.  Was it Trump+7 2016?  If so, this would likely be a Dem leaning district presidentially by 2028.

According to the DRA link via OP, it was Trump +7.2 in 2016 (49.4-42.2).

[Adam Griffin]

Surprised we didn't see at least one true "north versus south" map from GOP opportunists here. It'd basically guarantee each district roughly mimicked the state as a whole electorally (In the last 4 top-ticket contests, the southern CD was a tight 1.1 to 1.8 points more Democratic than the northern CD), with there being virtually 0% chance a House Democrat could ever win either of them.

(splits L&C's population roughly in half; no other splits)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b6022655-ba3f-468c-be5a-01575b1b73b6