Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[UncleSam]

Those "Dislike other candidate" numbers are...strange.

It indicates that Jones is getting great turnout from the base, but very little crossover support from Republicans. Meanwhile, Moore is getting some Republicans who just can't stomach a pro-choice candidate.

Question will be how many Republicans stayed home. Based on these numbers, likely quite a few.

[UncleSam]

NYTimes had it at 90% Jones at +8.3 for a second

Now back to +4.6

Moore in the lead by about 4% with 50% in

I think it's fair to say that if Jones fails to come back Nate Cohn will have lost most of his credibility tonight

On the other hand, if he does then that's a bit boon to the NYTimes modeling (well, if he wins by about 4 points, as they've been saying most of the night).

[UncleSam]

A word of caution: the NYTimes indicates that well over 60% of precincts are in, yet believe that about 45-46% of the vote is still out. Obviously they think turnout at these precincts will be higher than those that reported, but that's a big assumption when the guy in the lead by 8 points with 60+% in you're projecting to lose by 4.