State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Blue wave dead. The Roy Moore wave is in.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

No special elections today?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Not surprised to see dems lose (if it happens). FL dems are terribly organized and Trump way underperformed around Miami compared to a regular R. That's why I am not expecting dems to win FL-25 even though it was only Trump + 1.6

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/991465447810916353

Lol. I don't want to see any bragging from a Miami dem. While this area is more gop downballot, this should have been a much bigger dem win.

FL dems really need to start organizing.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This certainly doesn't look like good news for Curbelo, but it doesn't destroy his chances of pulling out a win.
Florida Democrats don't exactly have a great track record either...

A special election won’t cause Curbelo to do any worse or better in November, lol. It’s a symptom of the same thing: the environment

Why don't people realize that a ton of republicans are voting D? Just look at AZ-08, lol.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why are they all retiring? Did the special elections scare them that much? I mean, the special elections were fairly good for dems margin-wise and suggest dems take the senate, but they weren't like terrifying wave territory.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

Well what do you think is going to happen? If we win this district, then it's safe to say the Democrats are repairing their standing with the working class.

Until Democrats lose something else or fall a point in the generic ballot average, then suddenly THEY'RE DOOMED AND THE RED WAVE IS INCOMING AGAIN!

Did Conor Lamb's victory not already "prove" they were "repairing their standing with the working class"? I know that was 2 months ago, an eternity by Atlas standards, but people here really need to have perspective and look at the bigger picture rather than obsessing over every little movement in noisy polls and every single state legislative election as if it's a microcosm of the entire country.

I like how people already forgot about AZ-08. Young Conservative said 2018 might be D+10 after that election, and now he's back to generally being a GOP hack. The generic ballot was D+7 when Tipi got a 16 point swing too, which is barely better than it is now.

Posters here really have the memory of goldfish.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Massive democratic turnout in PA primaries. LimoLiberal's tears are super delicious!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Yuge blue tsunami imminent. 40% swing is insane. If that keeps up, dems win the PV by 42%

The worst night of Republicans lives - Mitch McConnell found dead beneath coal grave.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Dems should allow Felder to stay with them imo. He is more likely to vote with them that way and it's not like they'll need him to gain a majority come November either way. They can't beat him in his district so what would you rather have, someone who votes with you 70% of the time or 30% of the time and votes for the other party for the majority either way. Official party label has been shown to have a large impact on voting - the members of your party try to bend over backwards to vote with you or at least tell you what they need to vote with you, especially on big legislation. While the Dems won't need him come November, I don't see why they would alienate him just to sate their own egos.

Yeah, pissing off your own party members is generally a dumb idea. Not sure why they would do this.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

A political party is perfectly fine to expel members who act against the interests of the wider party - the point of a political party is meant to be a machine to elect people who have broadly similar aims and goals.  Since Felder is sitting with the other party in the State Senate then the Democrats have a right to expel him since, as far as I am concerned, that is breaking rule number 1 of being a member of a political party.  He can still run as an Independent or as a Republican or whatever: it means that in the General Elections voters will actually have the opportunity to vote for a real alternative and that's a positive thing.

Felder has every right to be a Democrat, period. We have free agency in this country.

free agency also allows a group to remove people who they feel act contrary to the aims of said group.  I don't know about how but sitting with the opposing political party when your party has a majority strikes me as meeting that definition.

Except there are only two parties in America, and they are supposed to represent a big-tent & broad based interest to accommodate people.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The evidence is mounting, and it ain't pretty:


1. TX-23 polls show Hurd easily winning and Latino turnout weak.
2. SD-19 special elections shows massive swings to Republicans in heavily Latino areas.
3. Polls/primaries in CA-21, CA-39, CA-25, FL-26, and FL-27 all show Democrats disastrously and devastatingly underperforming Hillary numbers - by a lot.
4. New Nevada polls show Democrats collapsing, Arizona Senate race has become very tight after Sinema seemed to have a clear lead for months.
5. Ted Cruz is surging in Texas.

The blue wave will be irrelevant in Hispanic heavy areas. Thus, I am changing my rating of the House from Lean D (where I have had it for about a month) to Lean R. Once sure pickups, like TX-23, CA-25, CA-39, and FL-27 look drastically different and democratic candidates are even struggling in sunbelt districts with a small minority population like TX-07 and AR-02.

The blue wave is over.

Less is more LL. And all of that "extreme hyperbole" fits right in to the clarified definition of trolling. Don't do this on any thread that I moderate, particularly when I am in a cranky mood, like now.

Also, most of his post isn't even on topic. TX-07 is not a statewide election, LL is just mentioning it here as a way to avoid his ban.