I think there's something in NM-02 that we aren't seeing. It was a Trump+10 seat, maybe she could actually be in trouble, these insiders have access to a lot of stuff that we don't, and some of these people follow these races for a living. But then again, this list could also be trash, because in no universe are Nehls, Roy, and Garcia less vulnerable than Steve Chabot. Leaning towards the latter, but let's not act like XTS is safe.
Yeah, many of us underestimated how vulnerable she was. This district's demographics are very unfavorable for the Democrats. It's heavily white and rural, and dependent on the oil and gas industry. It seems like she won in 2018 thanks to lower Republican/conservative turnout.
Torres-Small is the second one-term incumbent that NM-02 has had since the beginning of the century. When Steve Pearce vacated the seat for the first time in 2008 to mount his unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Harry Teague (who endorsed Herrell this year) won the race to succeed him. Teague served only one term before he was ousted by Pearce, returning to the seat in 2010. And now, after having won the seat following Pearce's unsuccessful gubernatorial bid, Torres-Small has been ousted by Herrell.
All of the rematches this year that I can think of (Bacon-Eastman, Katko-Balter, McCaul-Siegel, Herrell-Torres Small, Valadao-Cox, Kim-Cisneros) have been won by Republicans thus far, interestingly enough.
