WaPo: The House seats most likely to flip

[VAR]

1. TX-23 (OPEN, R)
2. NM-02 (Torres Small, D)
3. OK-05 (Horn, D)
4. UT-04 (McAdams, D)
5. NY-22 (Brindisi, D)
6. GA-07 (OPEN, R)
7. OH-01 (Chabot, R)
8. TX-24 (OPEN, R)
9. NJ-02 (Van Drew, R)
10. MN-07 (Peterson, D)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/25/fix-house-rankings/

[MT Treasurer]

This list is somehow even worse than I would have expected, and I always set the bar very low.

[xavier110]

This list is somehow even worse than I would have expected, and I always set the bar very low.

Yeah, this is........something

[Xing]

Even if we assume that they’re not counting the NC seats, what is this list? McAdams more vulnerable than Brindisi or Peterson? Van Drew and Chabot on this list but NE-02, TX-22, and TX-24 nowhere to be seen? GA-07 at number 6? Garbage.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Petersen is obviously the most likely to flip.

[Storr]

Absolute garbage list! XTS at #2???

[Xing]

Even if we assume that they’re not counting the NC seats, what is this list? McAdams more vulnerable than Brindisi or Peterson? Van Drew and Chabot on this list but NE-02, TX-22, and TX-24 nowhere to be seen? GA-07 at number 6? Garbage.

Don’t forget CA-25.

There’s so much wrong with this list that there are many seats I forgot to mention. The only good thing I can say is that they didn’t put FL-26 or MN-01 on the list.

[WD]

Holy sh**t this is bad, Horn more likely to lose than Peterson? LMAO. None of the other TX seats (24, 22, 21) and not to mention that CA-25 isn’t on here. Who makes this stuff?

Also, Hot take: TX-10 is more likely to flip than NJ-02

[S019]

I think there's something in NM-02 that we aren't seeing. It was a Trump+10 seat, maybe she could actually be in trouble, these insiders have access to a lot of stuff that we don't, and some of these people follow these races for a living. But then again, this list could also be trash, because in no universe are Nehls, Roy, and Garcia less vulnerable than Steve Chabot. Leaning towards the latter, but let's not act like XTS is safe.

[Kuumo]

Was this list created by Chris Cillizza, Dick Morris, and Fivey Fox?

[GALeftist]

How to unread an article

[Sol]

I think there's something in NM-02 that we aren't seeing. It was a Trump+10 seat, maybe she could actually be in trouble, these insiders have access to a lot of stuff that we don't, and some of these people follow these races for a living. But then again, this list could also be trash, because in no universe are Nehls, Roy, and Garcia less vulnerable than Steve Chabot. Leaning towards the latter, but let's not act like XTS is safe.

They might be taking into account Biden's weak numbers with Latinos.

[Gracile]

I do think NM-02 is one of the GOP's few legitimate pickup opportunities this cycle, but that doesn't take away that the seats listed here + the ordering misses the mark.

[SevenEleven]

"Liberal" media strikes again!!

I think there's something in NM-02 that we aren't seeing. It was a Trump+10 seat, maybe she could actually be in trouble, these insiders have access to a lot of stuff that we don't, and some of these people follow these races for a living. But then again, this list could also be trash, because in no universe are Nehls, Roy, and Garcia less vulnerable than Steve Chabot. Leaning towards the latter, but let's not act like XTS is safe.

They might be taking into account Biden's weak numbers with Latinos.

What weak numbers with Latinos?

[Nutmeg]

- I decline to click on the article to give them the revenue to continue producing this junk.

- I can't seem to find a thread of Atlas consensus on a top 10 list, though. Is there one?

these insiders have access to a lot of stuff that we don't, and some of these people follow these races for a living.

I'd argue that Atlas collectively is better than most professional prognosticators.

[VAR]

I think there's something in NM-02 that we aren't seeing. It was a Trump+10 seat, maybe she could actually be in trouble, these insiders have access to a lot of stuff that we don't, and some of these people follow these races for a living. But then again, this list could also be trash, because in no universe are Nehls, Roy, and Garcia less vulnerable than Steve Chabot. Leaning towards the latter, but let's not act like XTS is safe.

Yeah, many of us underestimated how vulnerable she was. This district's demographics are very unfavorable for the Democrats. It's heavily white and rural, and dependent on the oil and gas industry. It seems like she won in 2018 thanks to lower Republican/conservative turnout.

[Calthrina950]

I think there's something in NM-02 that we aren't seeing. It was a Trump+10 seat, maybe she could actually be in trouble, these insiders have access to a lot of stuff that we don't, and some of these people follow these races for a living. But then again, this list could also be trash, because in no universe are Nehls, Roy, and Garcia less vulnerable than Steve Chabot. Leaning towards the latter, but let's not act like XTS is safe.

Yeah, many of us underestimated how vulnerable she was. This district's demographics are very unfavorable for the Democrats. It's heavily white and rural, and dependent on the oil and gas industry. It seems like she won in 2018 thanks to lower Republican/conservative turnout.

Torres-Small is the second one-term incumbent that NM-02 has had since the beginning of the century. When Steve Pearce vacated the seat for the first time in 2008 to mount his unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Harry Teague (who endorsed Herrell this year) won the race to succeed him. Teague served only one term before he was ousted by Pearce, returning to the seat in 2010. And now, after having won the seat following Pearce's unsuccessful gubernatorial bid, Torres-Small has been ousted by Herrell.

All of the rematches this year that I can think of (Bacon-Eastman, Katko-Balter, McCaul-Siegel, Herrell-Torres Small, Valadao-Cox, Kim-Cisneros) have been won by Republicans thus far, interestingly enough.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think there's something in NM-02 that we aren't seeing. It was a Trump+10 seat, maybe she could actually be in trouble, these insiders have access to a lot of stuff that we don't, and some of these people follow these races for a living. But then again, this list could also be trash, because in no universe are Nehls, Roy, and Garcia less vulnerable than Steve Chabot. Leaning towards the latter, but let's not act like XTS is safe.

Yeah, many of us underestimated how vulnerable she was. This district's demographics are very unfavorable for the Democrats. It's heavily white and rural, and dependent on the oil and gas industry. It seems like she won in 2018 thanks to lower Republican/conservative turnout.

Torres-Small is the second one-term incumbent that NM-02 has had since the beginning of the century. When Steve Pearce vacated the seat for the first time in 2008 to mount his unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Harry Teague (who endorsed Herrell this year) won the race to succeed him. Teague served only one term before he was ousted by Pearce, returning to the seat in 2010. And now, after having won the seat following Pearce's unsuccessful gubernatorial bid, Torres-Small has been ousted by Herrell.

All of the rematches this year that I can think of (Bacon-Eastman, Katko-Balter, McCaul-Siegel, Herrell-Torres Small, Valadao-Cox, Kim-Cisneros) have been won by Republicans thus far, interestingly enough.

GA-06 between McBath and Handel was a rematch that the Dem won and NY-22 is still unresolved, but yeah Rs won most of the rematches this cycle.

[Roll Roons]

I think there's something in NM-02 that we aren't seeing. It was a Trump+10 seat, maybe she could actually be in trouble, these insiders have access to a lot of stuff that we don't, and some of these people follow these races for a living. But then again, this list could also be trash, because in no universe are Nehls, Roy, and Garcia less vulnerable than Steve Chabot. Leaning towards the latter, but let's not act like XTS is safe.

Yeah, many of us underestimated how vulnerable she was. This district's demographics are very unfavorable for the Democrats. It's heavily white and rural, and dependent on the oil and gas industry. It seems like she won in 2018 thanks to lower Republican/conservative turnout.

Torres-Small is the second one-term incumbent that NM-02 has had since the beginning of the century. When Steve Pearce vacated the seat for the first time in 2008 to mount his unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Harry Teague (who endorsed Herrell this year) won the race to succeed him. Teague served only one term before he was ousted by Pearce, returning to the seat in 2010. And now, after having won the seat following Pearce's unsuccessful gubernatorial bid, Torres-Small has been ousted by Herrell.

All of the rematches this year that I can think of (Bacon-Eastman, Katko-Balter, McCaul-Siegel, Herrell-Torres Small, Valadao-Cox, Kim-Cisneros) have been won by Republicans thus far, interestingly enough.

GA-06 between McBath and Handel was a rematch that the Dem won and NY-22 is still unresolved, but yeah Rs won most of the rematches this cycle.

Also Cindy Axne won the rematch between her and David Young in a district that just barely went for Trump.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think there's something in NM-02 that we aren't seeing. It was a Trump+10 seat, maybe she could actually be in trouble, these insiders have access to a lot of stuff that we don't, and some of these people follow these races for a living. But then again, this list could also be trash, because in no universe are Nehls, Roy, and Garcia less vulnerable than Steve Chabot. Leaning towards the latter, but let's not act like XTS is safe.

Yeah, many of us underestimated how vulnerable she was. This district's demographics are very unfavorable for the Democrats. It's heavily white and rural, and dependent on the oil and gas industry. It seems like she won in 2018 thanks to lower Republican/conservative turnout.

Torres-Small is the second one-term incumbent that NM-02 has had since the beginning of the century. When Steve Pearce vacated the seat for the first time in 2008 to mount his unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Harry Teague (who endorsed Herrell this year) won the race to succeed him. Teague served only one term before he was ousted by Pearce, returning to the seat in 2010. And now, after having won the seat following Pearce's unsuccessful gubernatorial bid, Torres-Small has been ousted by Herrell.

All of the rematches this year that I can think of (Bacon-Eastman, Katko-Balter, McCaul-Siegel, Herrell-Torres Small, Valadao-Cox, Kim-Cisneros) have been won by Republicans thus far, interestingly enough.

GA-06 between McBath and Handel was a rematch that the Dem won and NY-22 is still unresolved, but yeah Rs won most of the rematches this cycle.

Also Cindy Axne won the rematch between her and David Young in a district that just barely went for Trump.

Yup, also I forgot about VA-02 Scott Taylor vs Elaine Luria rematch