California by city

[Kamala's side hoe]

Milpitas
2016: 73.48 - 21.31 Clinton
2020: 67.93 - 30.45 Biden (R +14.69) (!!!)

Sunnyvale and Santa Clara look normal and their small swings are actually surprising given their demographics, but Milpitas is the first town where there is a clear and heavy Trump swing. Almost all of this can be attributed to the demographic makeup. The Asian population in Milpitas has a heavy Filipino and Vietnamese contingent that is not really present in any of the cities in the first two groups, which are far more Chinese and Indian. Milpitas is also far less educated than any other city mentioned, also pointing to a Trump swing. Nevertheless, such a drastic swing is pretty stunning to see, but as you'll see later on there are larger ones yet to come.

The Milpitas swing can’t be just from Vietnamese or Filipinos- neither group makes up more than 15-18% of the population there.

San Jose
2016: 73.82 - 20.51 Clinton
2020: 71.10 - 26.85 Biden (R +9.06)

Districts 6, 9, and 10, also the only districts that were majority non-Hispanic White, swung to Biden, but all less than 3 points. District 1, the next most non-Hispanic White district swung to Trump by around 2 points, similar to the swing in nearby Cupertino. These districts are all affluent and educated, considered the nice areas of San Jose. District 2 swung to Trump by around 7 points, which was big but tempered since due to the relatively large non-Hispanic White presence. All other districts, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8, swung by at least 10 points to Trump, with District 7 having a shocking 30+ point swing. These districts were all either majority Asian or majority Hispanic and are for the most part less affluent than 1, 6, 9, and 10. Districts 2 and 8 do have some nicer areas by their hillsides, and District 4 has multiple tech business parks, but 3, 5, and 7 contain a large majority of the city's poverty. Every District has a large Asian population, but the specific nationality makes a difference. District 4 has a large Indian and Filipino population, while District 1 is more Indian and Chinese, while District 7, as seen by its swing, has a large portion of San Jose's famous Vietnamese population.

Overall, the swings here can be clearly seen if mapped out geographically, with 1, 6, 9, and 10 forming a continuous mass from the West to the South, while the other districts are all in the North and East.

Santa Clara County
2016: 73.39 - 20.77 Clinton
2020: 72.64 - 25.23 Biden (R +5.20)

The county shifted over 5 points to the right, countering most of the smaller swings in the Bay Area. Milpitas and Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 actually were responsible for the entire swing in the area, with the county swinging 0.01 points leftward without them, speaking to how big the urban Latino and Vietnamese swings ended up being. The swing here interestingly makes Santa Clara County the only one out of the 20 wealthiest counties nationwide to move rightward, and indicates a need for Democrats to keep in touch with their urban constituents as much as they try to focus on new ground.

Yeah let’s hope the Vietnamese and urban Latino swings were a one-time thing. I wonder which group was responsible for more of the swing? And I wonder what the ethnic breakdown of the Asian population in Districts 2, 3, 5, and 8 is...

[Kamala's side hoe]

The Milpitas swing can’t be just from Vietnamese or Filipinos- neither group makes up more than 15-18% of the population there.

I think those groups are the largest two in Milpitas, no? You're right though, and come to think of it there are a lot of Chinese and Indians there as well. It does function as a moving spot for many techies who can't afford Cupertino/Sunnyvale and want a larger home given prices there are more like $500/sq ft versus $1,000/sq ft in most of the West Valley area. I think a similar dynamic will be at play in Fremont and we may see swings like this there. The swing still somewhat confuses me though because other places like this (Dublin, San Ramon, Pleasanton) seem to have swung to Biden.

Those other East Bay cities are much whiter, and have fewer to no Vietnamese or Filipinos. It bothers me that so much of the Asian swing could’ve just been from Vietnamese and maybe Filipinos- but tbh it bothers me that the Asian R swing even happened at all. I suspect it was more of a turnout issue (45 turning out more newly naturalized immigrants and low-propensity voters), but there may have been actual Vietnamese American vote switchers if the overall Viet swing was large enough.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Considering that many of these workers are effectively highly skilled within their occupational categories, and are effectively SMEs in working their respective trades within highly demanding Tech Sector SOWs and MSAs, there really isn't anywhere for them to go without taking significant pay cuts, especially with increased competition for jobs, with similar occupational categories in public schools also shut down.

Thoughts?

I'm guessing SME = Small and Medium Sized Enterprises, SOW = Source of Wealth/Work, and MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area?

[Kamala's side hoe]

Sorry if it's already been mentioned, but how did Cupertino vote in 2020 compared to 2016?

Off the top of my head, almost one quarter of its population is south-Asian (Indian/Bangladeshi). 

Swung 2.0% R

Cupertino (63.15% Asian) Santa Clara County
2016: Clinton 74.08% — Trump 19.98% = D+ 54.10   
2020: Biden 75.00% — Trump 22.90% = D+ 52.10
SWING: R+ 02.00

[Kamala's side hoe]

Los Angeles County, CA results (by city)

...
Los Angeles   76.56%   21.43%   -6.96%
...

I apologize if I made any errors with the colors anywhere. This is a big one.

There are no real surprises here when you look at overall trends everywhere else. Los Angeles County has a great deal of restaurant and retail jobs in the suburban areas that swung towards Trump, so Trump campaigning on re-opening everything probably helped him a great deal. Most of Biden's gains were in areas with higher white populations.

Oof, Los Angeles proper swung 7% R... I really don’t know how you can argue that COVID-19 didn’t help Trump electorally.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Los Angeles County, CA results (by city)

-snip-

There are no real surprises here when you look at overall trends everywhere else. Los Angeles County has a great deal of restaurant and retail jobs in the suburban areas that swung towards Trump, so Trump campaigning on re-opening everything probably helped him a great deal. Most of Biden's gains were in areas with higher white populations.

Thank you for your work on this. Seeing these results are really shocking and I haven't had time to really analyze them... but seeing some of these places like Redondo Beach and other wealthy white areas vote left of some Hispanic cities is rather shocking. Overall it looks like 2016 was a bit of a fluke for Democrats in some areas... but Trump really had some appeal. So curious what everyone else thinks.

Sounds just like what you said in a different thread. COVID caused massive R swings among working-class, nonwhite service sector employees who were inadequately supported through the lockdowns.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I just wanted to say, as someone who lived in Santa Clara County for a Year (Cupertino) back in the early 2010s with a Tech Sector contract temporary job project assignment, this was a fascinating and well written "Executive Level Summary" of Santa Clara County.

Also, for a relatively new poster this is clearly an effort level and high quality post--- Belated welcome to the Forum!

One item which may have impacted some of the larger swings among working-class Latino and Asian-American voters within Silicon Valley, is the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 employment picture.

There was an article I read several Months back (Politico?) that described the dual structure of employment.

Large Tech Facilities basically shuttered their doors, moved all of their direct employees to working remotely, while simultaneously paying working-class contract employees more heavily involved in Facility Services (Custodial, Food Service, etc...) for a period of time.

Now that arrangement has effectively ended in most tech facilities in the South Bay and direct tech sector employees are basically "permanently" working remotely and "support workers" are out of work and filing for unemployment.

Considering that many of these workers are effectively highly skilled within their occupational categories, and are effectively SMEs in working their respective trades within highly demanding Tech Sector SOWs and MSAs, there really isn't anywhere for them to go without taking significant pay cuts, especially with increased competition for jobs, with similar occupational categories in public schools also shut down.

Thoughts?

Thanks NOVA Green! I lurked this forum for a couple years occasionally before posting and a lot of your posts got me interested in the forum. I do think you're right in terms of the shutdowns adversely affecting a lot of cafe workers and related laid off people, many of whom live in San Jose and not in West Valley, contributing to swings we see. School closures are a tricky issue since most parents I'm familiar with are adamant on remaining at home for safety reasons, although this is far more feasible for older students who are less impacted than younger ones. I think Prop 16 definitely played a part in driving up vote shares for Republicans in certain areas, particularly in areas where parents are less wealthy. For these parents, affirmative action harms them far more than it does a parent who can pay their child's way in the old school way or through the million expensive extracurricular activities their children partake in.

This explanation makes a lot of sense, thanks for sharing. I think it would also apply to more overtly socioeconomic-based affirmative action schemes for college admissions. People in places like East San Jose and Milpitas aren’t professional class or 1%ers, but they aren’t necessarily below the poverty line or even working class (income wise) either. In any case, I wish people were more aware of how many less well-off and blue-collar Asian Americans there are out there.

Los Angeles County, CA results (by city)
                        Biden        Trump
Long Beach   72.49%   25.01%   -0.67%

Back on topic- I find it interesting how Long Beach barely swung R, given how racially diverse urban areas/counties mostly swung hard R this cycle. 40% Latino, 30% Non-Hispanic White, and 13% Black and Asian each. Long Beach Asians are mostly Filipino and Cambodian- both more working-class groups.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Is Oakland proper out ?? What is the results out of there ?

I just finished crunching the numbers for Oakland this morning (write-ins included in both 2016 and 2020):

OAKLAND
2016: Clinton 88.03% — Trump 4.69% = D+ 83.34
2020: Biden 90.98% — Trump 6.91% = D+ 84.07
SWING: D+ 00.73

I also finished Fremont and Hayward, so now we have all of Alameda County except Emeryville.

Fremont
2016: Clinton 72.00% — Trump 21.08% = D+ 50.92
2020: Biden 72.94% — Trump 25.15% = D+ 47.79
SWING: R+ 03.13

Hayward
2016: Clinton 78.40% — Trump 15.05% = D+ 63.35
2020: Biden 77.14% — Trump 20.83% = D+ 56.31
SWING: R+ 07.04

Oakland not swinging R isn't that surprising when you consider its high educational attainment, gentrification, and cultural differences from SF.

Hayward and Fremont also aren't that surprising when you consider income and racial ancestry. Downscale, plurality Latino Hayward swung R by a lot more, but was still more D than affluent and majority Asian Fremont.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I understand that.  San Marino has become very Asian, but used to be wealthy WASP Republican, while Beverly Hills was dominated by wealthy liberal Jews prior to the influx of Persian Jews.

Affluent Chinese immigrants and their children do not take kindly to being called a virus by a sitting president and members of said president's party.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I understand that.  San Marino has become very Asian, but used to be wealthy WASP Republican, while Beverly Hills was dominated by wealthy liberal Jews prior to the influx of Persian Jews.

Affluent Chinese immigrants and their children do not take kindly to being called a virus by a sitting president and members of said president's party.

I've been trying to make sense of the Asian swings - frankly they don't really make sense to me. My impression is that most Asian immigrants are affluent and highly educated but overall as a group they seem to have swung pretty heavily to Trump? Or did Asians also have a wealth / education divide similar to white voters? I know the Vietnamese are anti-communist so that's part of it, but aren't they a small fraction of the overall Asian vote?

The San Marino swing is actually very curious to me too - are the Asians that live there very different than the ones that live in Santa Clara County?

I'm not sure what happened with the overall Asian vote either- there's a lot of disagreement among different exit polls. The precinct data suggests that the overall Asian R swing was smaller than the overall Latino swing, and that the Vietnamese R swing was smaller/less decisive than the Cuban and Tejano R swings. San Marino Asians are overwhelmingly (>80%) ethnic Chinese, while Santa Clara County Asians are mostly Chinese, South Asian, and Vietnamese.

IMO the biggest divide among the Asian American electorate is by age and nativity. Older voters who grew up abroad have consistently been more right-leaning than post-80s birth cohorts and native-borns. The differences in swings/trends you'll see on a precinct map reflect differences in national origin/ethnicity, educational attainment, and occupation.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I understand that.  San Marino has become very Asian, but used to be wealthy WASP Republican, while Beverly Hills was dominated by wealthy liberal Jews prior to the influx of Persian Jews.

Affluent Chinese immigrants and their children do not take kindly to being called a virus by a sitting president and members of said president's party.

I've been trying to make sense of the Asian swings - frankly they don't really make sense to me. My impression is that most Asian immigrants are affluent and highly educated but overall as a group they seem to have swung pretty heavily to Trump? Or did Asians also have a wealth / education divide similar to white voters? I know the Vietnamese are anti-communist so that's part of it, but aren't they a small fraction of the overall Asian vote?

The San Marino swing is actually very curious to me too - are the Asians that live there very different than the ones that live in Santa Clara County?

I'm not sure what happened with the overall Asian vote either- there's a lot of disagreement among different exit polls. The precinct data suggests that the overall Asian R swing was smaller than the overall Latino swing, and that the Vietnamese R swing was smaller/less decisive than the Cuban and Tejano R swings. San Marino Asians are overwhelmingly (>80%) ethnic Chinese, while Santa Clara County Asians are mostly Chinese, South Asian, and Vietnamese.

IMO the biggest divide among the Asian American electorate is by age and nativity. Older voters who grew up abroad have consistently been more right-leaning than post-80s birth cohorts and native-borns. The differences in swings/trends you'll see on a precinct map reflect differences in national origin/ethnicity, educational attainment, and occupation.

Yeah, that would make sense. Most of the Asian Americans I know were almost all born in the states, college or grad schools educated, speak English as a first language, and are Millennials - much more the profile of voters that swung towards Biden than Trump. I just assumed they were representative of the larger Asian American population, so seeing these Trump swings in heavily Asian communities did surprise me. Although it does look like they still went pretty heavily D (65-75% range), so this also wasn't a RGV type of situation.

I wouldn't have guessed there would be such a big R swing among Vietnamese voters, based on the  college-educated Vietnamese American Millennials and iGens I personally know (many of whom are pursuing postgraduate education). But those people aren't representative of the overall VietAm electorate, which like most Asian groups aside from Japanese skews older and foreign-born.

[Kamala's side hoe]

The differences in the Asian vote in the San Gabriel Valley are astounding as well and there aren't even ethnic differences within the Asian vote to take into account. San Marino (78% college educated) swung to Biden by 5 points and Arcadia (55% college educated) swung to Biden by two points while just down the road, the city of Rosemead (20% College educated and only 66% high school graduates!!) swung to Trump by 20 points!

Context- San Marino and Arcadia were both around 58-39 Biden, while Rosemead was like 66-32 Biden. According to Statistical Atlas...

San Marino is 55% Asian (45% ethnic Chinese), 33% Non-Hispanic White, 75% college+, and has a median household income of ~$140k.

Arcadia is 59% Asian (44% ethnic Chinese), 23% Non-Hispanic White, 61% college+, and has a median household income of ~$84k.

Rosemead is 60% Asian (36% ethnic Chinese, 14% Vietnamese), 34% Latino (4% Non-Hispanic White), 22% college+ (34% no HS diploma), and has a median household income of ~$46k.

I'm guessing the Chinese American communities in these cities originate from different immigrant waves. San Marino in particular has a high proportion of self-identified Taiwanese Americans.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Why didn't places like Long Beach and Whittier swing so hard against Biden like other Hispanic areas? I know they both have smaller hispanic majorities and significant white minorities, so does that have anything to do with it?

Welcome to the forum! I was also wondering about Long Beach- it's one of the more racially diverse cities in Los Angeles County, with relatively even shares of White, Latino, Black, and Asian residents. I think the places that had larger R swings tended to be more racially homogeneous, as well as higher nonwhite populations and lower education levels.

-snip-

There seems to be a similar trend in Hispanic areas based on education. Whittier one of the few higher-education, higher-income Latino areas in the country didn't swing to Trump nearly as strongly as other communities.

[Kamala's side hoe]

In LA do you know what the reason for that random Trump +10 precinct in East Hollywood (it was Clinton+21 in 2016 so it's clearly not always an anomalous solidly GOP area)? I did notice that there's a Church of Scientology in the precinct, could that be the reason?

It's either Scientologists or Armenians, probably both.

Why did Armenians swing to Trump anyway?

[Kamala's side hoe]

In LA do you know what the reason for that random Trump +10 precinct in East Hollywood (it was Clinton+21 in 2016 so it's clearly not always an anomalous solidly GOP area)? I did notice that there's a Church of Scientology in the precinct, could that be the reason?

It's either Scientologists or Armenians, probably both.

Why did Armenians swing to Trump anyway?

Yes, I want to know the answer to this also as they voted quite strongly for Clinton, so what made Armenians swing this time?

I do know that when Trump visited in the fall Armenian flags were everywhere along his motorcade route.

In my experience, Armenian culture tends to be extremely Islamophobic, even if they skew liberal on other issues.

Wouldn’t this have been more important in 2016 though? I would’ve expected Turkish Americans to swing towards Trump for similar reasons as non-Chinese Asians and Orthodox Jews (foreign policy), but I don’t see how this would influence Armenians, who are (to my knowledge) mostly several generations removed from the motherland.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Santa Ana: Biden 64,645 (68.42%) — Trump 27,887 (29.52%) — Others 1,951 (2.06%) = D+ 38.90
Irvine: Biden 82,067 (64.33%) — Trump 42,832 (33.57%) — Others 2,682 (2.10%) = D+ 30.76


Garden Grove: Biden 34,753 (49.67%) — Trump 33,989 (48.57%) — Others 1,233 (1.76%) = D+ 01.10
Fountain Valley: Trump 16,349 (50.98%) — Biden 15,109 (47.11%) — Others 613 (1.91%) = R+ 03.87
Westminster: Trump 22,577 (53.81%) — Biden 18,738 (44.66%) — Others 644 (1.53%) = R+ 09.15

According to Wikipedia...

Santa Ana: Biden gained 11k votes from HRC, Trump gained almost 13k votes. (swung R by ~2k votes and a 13.5% margin)

Irvine: Biden gained 16k votes from HRC, Trump gained 13k votes. (swung D by ~3k votes and a 1.5% margin)

Garden Grove: Biden gained 4k votes from HRC, Trump gained over 15k votes. (swung R by ~11k votes and a 21.5% margin)
Fountain Valley: Biden gained 3k votes from HRC, Trump gained 5k votes. (swung R by ~2k votes and a 4% margin)
Westminster: Biden gained 2k votes from HRC, Trump gained over 10k votes. (swung R by ~8k votes and a 24.5% margin)