NSW, Australia - State Election 26 March 2011

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I agree with Smid that the poll are more dire than the reality might be.

The ALP will lose, and deservedly so. I like Kennealy a lot, and think she would have been better saved for after their loss.

The equal problem is that the NSW Opposition is not running a real argument as to why they are better than the ALP... their whole argument is "ALP bad... we not ALP"

Which won't help...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm having a hard time figuring out the numbers for this.

I did hear in a the pretty safe ALP seat of Kiama, the Lib candidate is running at 60-40 TPP... which would be near a 25% swing... I have a very, VERY hard time believing those numbers will hold up.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm having a hard time figuring out the numbers for this.

I did hear in a the pretty safe ALP seat of Kiama, the Lib candidate is running at 60-40 TPP... which would be near a 25% swing... I have a very, VERY hard time believing those numbers will hold up.

I hope that's the case... I believe an old mate of mine from my uni days is the Liberal candidate in Kiama...

Meanwhile, in The Sydney Morning Herald, the first poll for the election has been released:

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I have difficulty believing that the final result will be that poor for Labor, however. I really think it's unlikely that when some formerly committed Labor voters walk into the polling booth, they'll really think that it's in their best interests for Labor to be not just put into Opposition, but left with a quarter of the seats... Mind you, the Coalition had about three-quarters of the seats following the 1996 Federal election, if my memory serves me correct, so maybe these figures are accurate.

The Daily Telegraph mentions the betting markets predicting Labor reduced to 20 seats. Of course, the betting markets also expected Labor to win the Victorian State election last year, too...

Hmmm - did you go to Uni of Wollongong too?

The Lib cand is a friend of mine as well.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hmmm - did you go to Uni of Wollongong too?

The Lib cand is a friend of mine as well.

No, I was up in Brisbane in those days, but I knew him through NUS and ALSF. I haven't chatted with him in a couple of years, but I try to keep up with his Facebook posts. I slept the night on his couch one time, when a friend and I did a roadtrip from Brisbane to Melbourne for the 2002 Victorian election.

I ran in student elections at Wollongong once... I REALLY hated Uni politics, just a bunch of ego maniacs playing politician.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I would be utterly amazed if the ALP got to that level.

I think they'll get slaughtered, but not a 66-34 obliteration...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Prediction === 14 March

Coaltion: 59.5% TPP - 61 seats
ALP 41.5% TPP - 24 seats
Greens - 2 seats
Independents - 6 seats

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Are you including Port Macquarie and/or Tamworth in your count of 6 independents? Dubbo is quite marginal Ind vs Nat, too, but less likely to be affected by federal independent factors. I think Port Macquarie is probably most likely to be influenced by federal politics because the federal MP campaigned very strongly for the state MP.

Tamworth yes, Port Macquarie yes - I've Dubbo for the Nats

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newcastle

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/guide/newc.htm

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is there a chance that Keneally could lose her seat? I know it is a pretty safe constituency, but Anthony Green only has it at a Likely Labour rating, and with her unpopularity I don't think people should take for granted her reelection. The Greens apparently are smelling blood too.

http://www.skynews.com.au/local/article.aspx?id=581865&vId=

It's not really her unpopularity, for a Government that is completely putrid, her popularity levels aren't that bad.

People generally like her.

A friend of mine who lives in her seat said "Eisenhower could come back from the dead and run as a Liberal and not win Heffron"

She'll have to go to preferences, but the Green vote in that area is so high there's no way the Lib will get enough of that flow to push them over.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm having a REALLY hard time working the numbers out...

I cannot really work out the exact seat numbers predictions because I think the average swing will be about 14%... but there will be a lot of local factors that push seats outside of that range to the Libs, but also have the ALP hold seats within that range.

I'm currently predicting the TPPv to be 60.5-39.5

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/

The SkyNews exit poll is showing a 21% swing, which, if uniform, would leave the ALP with 13 seats in the 93 seat lower house.... I still can't quite fathom a blowout of that extent.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah, I think there will be big swings outside of the overall, as well as much smaller ones than expected.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Excuse my lack of knowlegde about NSW, but what exactly has the NSW Labour done to receive the worst result today since 1904 ?

People have just grown tired, and pretty much the issue is like a parent with a child... the patience has gone completely and utterly.

The should have lost in 2007, and might have had a chance to renew... now they're going to get slaughtered and will required an 'Dr Who-like' regeneration. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Does anyone know of an online stream that works? I went to ABC's website, but their news coverage is only available to Australia.

Hmmmm not sure.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the other story is the under-performance of the Greens yet again... if they couldn't win Balmain or Marrickville at this election, I doubt they ever will.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looking good for Gareth.

I know that area well, and I'm shocked by the size of the swing in Kiama.

Yes, the Green has a slight lead, but a combination of Lib votes exhausting and Lib preferences going to the ALP ahead of the Greens, will probably push Firth ahead.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's absolutely mind-boggling...

Some of those swings, 26% in Parramatta, 31% in Riverstone... the Libs have won Smithfield... it's the equivalent the GOP winning South Chicago...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Across my old stomping ground in the North Shore of Sydney - in some of the safest Liberal seats in Sydney, the ALP has finished 3rd behind the Greens - Ku-Ring-Gai, Hornsby, Manly, Willoughby, North Shore, Davidson, Wakehurst - as well as Vaucluse in the very wealthy Eastern Suburbs.

Where can I find a map of the current result?

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-election-2011/interactive-map

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2011/03/26/3174675.htm

...such wasted talent.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sadly, my last-minute seat prediction of 19-22 seats was actually pretty much on the money... (I chose to not believe the polls... I should have when it came to the vote) wasn't quite expecting the under-performance of the Greens in Marickville and that mixed with the slight over-performance of the Libs in Balmain leading to the three-way contest.

A friend of mine who lives in Balmain called me and said he heard someone say "I just voted Liberal for the first time in my life, I need a shower I feel so dirty... hopefully the ALP gets its act together so I never have to again"

While there is clearly an endorsement of O'Farrell  -  they need to respect and acknowledge that there is NO REASON besides protest voting that caused many of those seats to flip on such exaggerated swings. So O'Farrell needs to make sure he delivers...

My thinking would be, prepare for at least two terms....

1st term, re-build party structure and recruit good people to both sure up their weakened existing seats, as well as target seats they should NEVER have lost. Try to reduce the majority to under 30 (there are enough seats for them to do that).

2 term - hopefully there will be significant gains, this term is about establishing the agenda for re-election. Own Labor's successes, completely and utterly own the mistakes made in the past.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hopefully Australians give a similarly resounding victory to Abbott come 2013.

No, we better bloody not, or I'll happily make use of my German citizenship

Also, I can deal with O'Farrell, he's not a right-wing nut bag - he's an old-school Liberal - not one of the Liberals who are desperately trying to turn it into the GOP, and at once destroy the great Australian support for social justice as well as drag us backward in social policy.

I probably would have voted Liberal in this state election, simply because the ALP had been in power far too long and had lost perspective.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looks like Pauline Hanson got 1.86% in the Upper House. Her vote may fall further (but probably not by much) because the larger parties tend to do better in postals and pre-poll. Very unlikely she'll be elected.

Rightly so, it's bad enough the crackpots in the CDP and the Shooter's Party will have influence.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Does Pauline Hanson is the "One Nation" girl?

Yup... Ms "I'm going to England where they value anglo-values.... wait... it's full of..!!!"

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Does Pauline Hanson is the "One Nation" girl?

Yup... Ms "I'm going to England where they value anglo-values.... wait... it's full of..!!!"

The funny thing is that the UK isn't diverse. Someone better not suggest she comes to the United States.

She'd be elected statewide in Arizona.

She might even be to the left of Brewer.

Spoke too soon...

http://www.news.com.au/national/greens-in-peril-as-pauline-creeps-ahead/story-e6frfkvr-1226029724144