Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ignoring the fact this guy is doing a sock puppet character bit, this guy did a pretty breakdown of the numbers on both sides and honestly I didn’t realize how lopsided the numbers can be in Ukraine’s favor by the start of summer because Putin can’t/won’t risk conscription. If Putin keeps course and just bring in some reserves from the Caucuses and the Far East at best Russia is looking at 220-310k in the field with roughly 30k separatists militias and Chechens to assist. While if Ukraine does only a halfway decent mass mobilization they can field an army of 740-800k troops and unlike Russia there is no numbers in the field to tell us how many militants, insurgents, and partisans are in the field to assist Ukraine the way the Chechen and separatist are.  

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1511695660604706822

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine is pushing closer to Kherson, making small moves toward Melitopol and there are now video circling social media of Russian troops abandoning positions in Nova Kakhovka. So good progress in the south for Ukraine

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1511747263235821570
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1511324020716752904
https://mobile.twitter.com/TimInHonolulu/status/1511819067924967434

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1511880639934521344

Does this act do anything different than we are already doing?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine forces repelled a Russian attack on the town of Barvinkove which is due west of Slovyansk, shooting down an attack helicopter and destroying several tanks so the Donbas offensive is off to roaring success for Russia lol
https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1511385818048442376
https://mobile.twitter.com/emmanuel_miege/status/1511589011604873220

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1512053218448183300
A good 🧵 on why the Russia new offensive in the east is heading for disaster

[Hindsight was 2020]

Guys guys, obviously genocide is bad, but it's important that we remain vigilant in case Ukraine hypothetically does something I imagined in my head that would make them worse than Russia. I am a very smart moderate.

Wow, makes you think, we live in a society

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine has launched small counterattacks near Izyum which is further holding up the big new offensive Russia want to do towards Sloviansk

https://mobile.twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1512204165526827010

[Hindsight was 2020]

Woodbury Russians are shooting unarmed Ukraine civilians in the back of the head and shooting missiles at them as they get on trains. None of us are in the f**king mood for your stuff

[Hindsight was 2020]

Woodbury comes into a thread he wasn’t able to post to and the first thing he does is post the 5% of quasi-good news for Russia (even then it’s shaky) and you don’t think he’s trolling?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Okay I’m sorry if I jumped the gun and trolling wasn’t WB goal, his prior history left me a suspect of his intentions and I have very little patiences right now for anyone remotely pro-Russian on this conflict

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Ukraine army updated tonight that the Russian advance out of Izumi clashed with Ukraine resistance and was stopped in its tracks once again showing the Donbas offensive is not likely to yield any victory for Putin let along one by May 9th. Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine hold the town of Belozerka which puts them just outside Kherson
https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1512641948812726279
https://mobile.twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1512404833709535234

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1512562514415869960
The Kherson rumors seem to be confirmed

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1512919571665231874

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1513277658037071872

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1513270462746398724

[Hindsight was 2020]

There are more rumblings on social media backing up the earlier tweet that the Russian column heading for Kharkiv was hit and the Russians suffered 2k+ causalities

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russian TV broadcasts 160 UA marines surrendering from Azovstal in Mariupol:

https://t.me/intelslava/24954

Okay now I’m starting to think I was first intuition was right and you are trying to troll by just posting pro-Russian news. This bs story has been debunked for weeks

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russian TV broadcasts 160 UA marines surrendering from Azovstal in Mariupol:

https://t.me/intelslava/24954

Okay now I’m starting to think I was first intuition was right and you are trying to troll by just posting pro-Russian news. This bs story has been debunked for weeks

These aren't the same marines from the 503rd who surrendered earlier this month, this is just in the last 24 hours. And no, that earlier story wasn't "debunked for weeks". Literally OSINT confirmed about it's surrender the day after, the 503rd's commander being in touch with him. Bro, I know it can be hard, but literally cite sources & try to dig in.

Like that story you just posted about 2k+ Russian deaths near Kharkiv, not only is that insane and impossible to confirm in such a short time nor has any serious intel even remotely talked about this, but that rumor was literally started by a "Canadian volunteer" from Twitter who has multiple times exaggerated bs stories from the start.

He’s a more reliable source than Russian tv as he was telling about the process towards Kherson days before Ukraine military confirmed it. Also the fact remains that since you came back to this thread you have only been posting pro-Russian news which is suspect considering how overwhelming bad the war is going for them.

[Hindsight was 2020]

andjey how well set up do you think Ukraine is for this battle for Donbas? A lot of the talk has mainly focusing on Russia and how desperate they are to win it but no real info on how well entrenched you guys are for the battle and if there are backup plans to prevent any big encirclement’s. Anything from the ground you have heard?

[Hindsight was 2020]

andjey how well set up do you think Ukraine is for this battle for Donbas? A lot of the talk has mainly focusing on Russia and how desperate they are to win it but no real info on how well entrenched you guys are for the battle and if there are backup plans to prevent any big encirclement’s. Anything from the ground you have heard?

With all due respect, but I will not write here about the capabilities of the Ukrainian army and its forces in the Donbas. Let it be a surprise for you. I hope you understand me correctly. I will say only one thing: the chances of Ukrainians are quite high (I would say about 55-60%), but we still need Western weapons, especially planes and tanks. We need a lot of it and we need it now.

Oh I get it was just curious is all

[Hindsight was 2020]

Unfortunately there have been no follow up reports on the 2k convoy strike so it seems to of been Twitter rumors but good news it was confirmed that Ukraine hit the convoy in Izumi and destroyed a bunch of equipment https://en.lb.ua/news/2022/04/10/12887_armed_forces_ukraine_destroyed.html

[Hindsight was 2020]

Holy crap let’s go Ukraine! Hitting the Black Sea flagship opens the southern front for Ukrainian air support 😁

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1514362168237596675

[Hindsight was 2020]

Can’t help but notice that on a day with no positive Russian news that Sir “I’m pro-Ukraine” Woodbury is absent 🧐