CO - Colorado Sun: Bennet +13 over Boebert, +9 over Generic Republican

[Mr.Phips]

The likeliest Republican candidate to run here (the only remotely prominent name to have shown any interest) is fmr. Rep. Clarisse Navarro, who is Boebert's district director. Navarro might be a marginally stronger candidate than Boebert -- she is Hispanic and represented a swingy district in the state House from 2013-2017, where she received strong margins -- but she would presumably be bringing some of the same sort of energy to this campaign (at the very least Boebert would be a prominent surrogate).

It’s Safe D, irrespective of this or any other poll. Even in a very favorable R year, the party is extremely unlikely to win the GCB by more than 2-3 points (and I wouldn’t necessarily bet on them winning it at all), nowhere near enough to put this race in play. Uniform swing isn’t real, but when the trendlines paint such an unambiguous picture, it will require exceptional circumstances to bet against the dominant party. CO is quickly on its way to becoming one of the most D states in the nation.

Why so? The average out-party margin over the past 4 midterms¹ is out-party+7.3; the average swing towards the out-party across those midterms is 11.1 points, so projecting a change from 2020 (which was D+3.1) gets you to R+8.0.

I don't think Republicans are terribly likely to take this seat², but at a national environment of R+8 I don't even think Boebertism is a sure statewide loser, and FTR I still think Colorado will see a backlash to Democrats later this decade when the current generation of CO Democratic leadership passes the baton.

¹Yes, I did cherry-pick the start date to make my point more dramatic; if you take it backward you get smaller numbers but still the same basic pattern.
²Although I think the reason for the CO Democrats' success is their unusual moderation: Polis was probably the least lockdown-friendly Democratic Governor in the country, Bennet is easily among the most conservative Democratic Senators and has publicly suggested that Reid's 2013 filibuster reform was a mistake, and Hickenlooper was best known for his pro-fracking stance. I think the rise of the next generation of CO Democratic leadership, in a generation or so, will be associated with a backlash.

Republicans couldn’t even get to R+8 in 2010 or 2014 (they were R+7 and R+5).  Even when Dems got to D+8 in 2018, they still couldn’t win Ohio (except Brown as an incumbent), which is probably the mirror image of Colorado at this point when it comes to partisanship.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans couldn’t even get to R+8 in 2010 or 2014 (they were R+7 and R+5).  Even when Dems got to D+8 in 2018, they still couldn’t win Ohio (except Brown as an incumbent), which is probably the mirror image of Colorado at this point when it comes to partisanship.

I'm not necessarily projecting R+8 as the outcome of 2022; just saying that the historical perspective suggests something like that might be the median outcome. It's way too early to make any projections based on polling.

Also...no? Relative to the US, Ohio has been significantly more Republican than Colorado is Democratic at the 2020 and 2016 elections (2020 was OH:R+13 and CO:D+9 relative to the US, 2016 was OH:R+9 and CO:D+3). Colorado was more Democratic than Ohio was Republican under the Obama alignment, but that's getting to have been a long time ago.

R+8 is nowhere near the median outcome given that 2010, where Dem turnout fell through the floor and independents were as Republican as they could possible get, was only R+7.

Looking at 2020, Ohio was R+6 and Colorado was D+5 relative to the national popular vote.  They pretty much sit at opposite sides of each other partisanshipwise.