CO - Colorado Sun: Bennet +13 over Boebert, +9 over Generic Republican

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Michael Bennet (D-inc.): 51%
Lauren Boebert (R): 38%

Michael Bennet (D-inc.): 49%
Generic Republican: 40%

https://lede-admin.coloradosun.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2021/07/CO-Mountaineer-Q2-Survey-Topline-F06.24.21.pdf

[SnowLabrador]

I don't think Boebert's going to run. My guess is Bennet wins by about 7-8 points.

[S019]

Likely D, just not Safe out of an abundance of caution, also I highly doubt Boebert runs.

[Gracile]

Safe D. Maybe it could be closer, but it's hard to imagine Democrats losing this state given the recent strong movement toward their party at the federal level.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Safe D. Nine points may very well be Bennet's floor.

[Calthrina950]

Safe D. Interestingly enough, Bennet has never gotten a majority before. Next year will be the year that he does. The only question for this race is whether his margin of victory is in the high single digits or the low double digits.

[MT Treasurer]

- D+13 in 2020, 9 points more D than the nation as a whole

- near 20-point D trend in 20 years

- furthest to the left of the nation it’s been in more than 100 years (1916)

- only MD and VT trended more sharply away from Republicans in 2020

- incumbent generic Republican who only narrowly beat a flawed D incumbent in a R year loses by 9 points to a lackluster challenger

- every single Congressional district trended D in 2020

- heart of the GOP base (El Paso County) that’s essential to any R statewide path shifts from R+35 (2004) to R+20 (2012) to R+11 (2020) in less than two decades

- all three major suburban Denver counties, two of which were won by Bush in his narrow-ish victory against Kerry, just voted to the left of NJ

- Biden comes within 1% of winning every age cohort, wins 18-29 group by 44 points (70-26)

It’s Safe D, irrespective of this or any other poll. Even in a very favorable R year, the party is extremely unlikely to win the GCB by more than 2-3 points (and I wouldn’t necessarily bet on them winning it at all), nowhere near enough to put this race in play. Uniform swing isn’t real, but when the trendlines paint such an unambiguous picture, it will require exceptional circumstances to bet against the dominant party. CO is quickly on its way to becoming one of the most D states in the nation.

[Chips]

Likely D, just not Safe out of an abundance of caution, also I highly doubt Boebert runs.

[Vosem]

The likeliest Republican candidate to run here (the only remotely prominent name to have shown any interest) is fmr. Rep. Clarisse Navarro, who is Boebert's district director. Navarro might be a marginally stronger candidate than Boebert -- she is Hispanic and represented a swingy district in the state House from 2013-2017, where she received strong margins -- but she would presumably be bringing some of the same sort of energy to this campaign (at the very least Boebert would be a prominent surrogate).

It’s Safe D, irrespective of this or any other poll. Even in a very favorable R year, the party is extremely unlikely to win the GCB by more than 2-3 points (and I wouldn’t necessarily bet on them winning it at all), nowhere near enough to put this race in play. Uniform swing isn’t real, but when the trendlines paint such an unambiguous picture, it will require exceptional circumstances to bet against the dominant party. CO is quickly on its way to becoming one of the most D states in the nation.

Why so? The average out-party margin over the past 4 midterms¹ is out-party+7.3; the average swing towards the out-party across those midterms is 11.1 points, so projecting a change from 2020 (which was D+3.1) gets you to R+8.0.

I don't think Republicans are terribly likely to take this seat², but at a national environment of R+8 I don't even think Boebertism is a sure statewide loser, and FTR I still think Colorado will see a backlash to Democrats later this decade when the current generation of CO Democratic leadership passes the baton.

¹Yes, I did cherry-pick the start date to make my point more dramatic; if you take it backward you get smaller numbers but still the same basic pattern.
²Although I think the reason for the CO Democrats' success is their unusual moderation: Polis was probably the least lockdown-friendly Democratic Governor in the country, Bennet is easily among the most conservative Democratic Senators and has publicly suggested that Reid's 2013 filibuster reform was a mistake, and Hickenlooper was best known for his pro-fracking stance. I think the rise of the next generation of CO Democratic leadership, in a generation or so, will be associated with a backlash.

[Mr.Phips]

The likeliest Republican candidate to run here (the only remotely prominent name to have shown any interest) is fmr. Rep. Clarisse Navarro, who is Boebert's district director. Navarro might be a marginally stronger candidate than Boebert -- she is Hispanic and represented a swingy district in the state House from 2013-2017, where she received strong margins -- but she would presumably be bringing some of the same sort of energy to this campaign (at the very least Boebert would be a prominent surrogate).

It’s Safe D, irrespective of this or any other poll. Even in a very favorable R year, the party is extremely unlikely to win the GCB by more than 2-3 points (and I wouldn’t necessarily bet on them winning it at all), nowhere near enough to put this race in play. Uniform swing isn’t real, but when the trendlines paint such an unambiguous picture, it will require exceptional circumstances to bet against the dominant party. CO is quickly on its way to becoming one of the most D states in the nation.

Why so? The average out-party margin over the past 4 midterms¹ is out-party+7.3; the average swing towards the out-party across those midterms is 11.1 points, so projecting a change from 2020 (which was D+3.1) gets you to R+8.0.

I don't think Republicans are terribly likely to take this seat², but at a national environment of R+8 I don't even think Boebertism is a sure statewide loser, and FTR I still think Colorado will see a backlash to Democrats later this decade when the current generation of CO Democratic leadership passes the baton.

¹Yes, I did cherry-pick the start date to make my point more dramatic; if you take it backward you get smaller numbers but still the same basic pattern.
²Although I think the reason for the CO Democrats' success is their unusual moderation: Polis was probably the least lockdown-friendly Democratic Governor in the country, Bennet is easily among the most conservative Democratic Senators and has publicly suggested that Reid's 2013 filibuster reform was a mistake, and Hickenlooper was best known for his pro-fracking stance. I think the rise of the next generation of CO Democratic leadership, in a generation or so, will be associated with a backlash.

Republicans couldn’t even get to R+8 in 2010 or 2014 (they were R+7 and R+5).  Even when Dems got to D+8 in 2018, they still couldn’t win Ohio (except Brown as an incumbent), which is probably the mirror image of Colorado at this point when it comes to partisanship.

[Calthrina950]

The likeliest Republican candidate to run here (the only remotely prominent name to have shown any interest) is fmr. Rep. Clarisse Navarro, who is Boebert's district director. Navarro might be a marginally stronger candidate than Boebert -- she is Hispanic and represented a swingy district in the state House from 2013-2017, where she received strong margins -- but she would presumably be bringing some of the same sort of energy to this campaign (at the very least Boebert would be a prominent surrogate).

It’s Safe D, irrespective of this or any other poll. Even in a very favorable R year, the party is extremely unlikely to win the GCB by more than 2-3 points (and I wouldn’t necessarily bet on them winning it at all), nowhere near enough to put this race in play. Uniform swing isn’t real, but when the trendlines paint such an unambiguous picture, it will require exceptional circumstances to bet against the dominant party. CO is quickly on its way to becoming one of the most D states in the nation.

Why so? The average out-party margin over the past 4 midterms¹ is out-party+7.3; the average swing towards the out-party across those midterms is 11.1 points, so projecting a change from 2020 (which was D+3.1) gets you to R+8.0.

I don't think Republicans are terribly likely to take this seat², but at a national environment of R+8 I don't even think Boebertism is a sure statewide loser, and FTR I still think Colorado will see a backlash to Democrats later this decade when the current generation of CO Democratic leadership passes the baton.

¹Yes, I did cherry-pick the start date to make my point more dramatic; if you take it backward you get smaller numbers but still the same basic pattern.
²Although I think the reason for the CO Democrats' success is their unusual moderation: Polis was probably the least lockdown-friendly Democratic Governor in the country, Bennet is easily among the most conservative Democratic Senators and has publicly suggested that Reid's 2013 filibuster reform was a mistake, and Hickenlooper was best known for his pro-fracking stance. I think the rise of the next generation of CO Democratic leadership, in a generation or so, will be associated with a backlash.

You're certainly correct about this. Udall, in spite of his excessive focus on abortion during the 2014 campaign which earned him the moniker of "Mark Uterus" and cost him reelection, was also very much an establishment liberal and had a generally moderate tone. And Colorado's Governors, regardless of party, have traditionally been moderates or pragmatists. This has been true since at least the 1960s, beginning with Love and continuing through Vanderhoof, Lamm, Romer, Owens, Ritter, Hickenlooper, and now Polis. Almost all of our statewide officials in that same time period have also fit into this category. Colorado is not a state that likes to elect extreme ideologues.

[Vosem]

Republicans couldn’t even get to R+8 in 2010 or 2014 (they were R+7 and R+5).  Even when Dems got to D+8 in 2018, they still couldn’t win Ohio (except Brown as an incumbent), which is probably the mirror image of Colorado at this point when it comes to partisanship.

I'm not necessarily projecting R+8 as the outcome of 2022; just saying that the historical perspective suggests something like that might be the median outcome. It's way too early to make any projections based on polling.

Also...no? Relative to the US, Ohio has been significantly more Republican than Colorado is Democratic at the 2020 and 2016 elections (2020 was OH:R+13 and CO:D+9 relative to the US, 2016 was OH:R+9 and CO:D+3). Colorado was more Democratic than Ohio was Republican under the Obama alignment, but that's getting to have been a long time ago.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans couldn’t even get to R+8 in 2010 or 2014 (they were R+7 and R+5).  Even when Dems got to D+8 in 2018, they still couldn’t win Ohio (except Brown as an incumbent), which is probably the mirror image of Colorado at this point when it comes to partisanship.

I'm not necessarily projecting R+8 as the outcome of 2022; just saying that the historical perspective suggests something like that might be the median outcome. It's way too early to make any projections based on polling.

Also...no? Relative to the US, Ohio has been significantly more Republican than Colorado is Democratic at the 2020 and 2016 elections (2020 was OH:R+13 and CO:D+9 relative to the US, 2016 was OH:R+9 and CO:D+3). Colorado was more Democratic than Ohio was Republican under the Obama alignment, but that's getting to have been a long time ago.

R+8 is nowhere near the median outcome given that 2010, where Dem turnout fell through the floor and independents were as Republican as they could possible get, was only R+7.

Looking at 2020, Ohio was R+6 and Colorado was D+5 relative to the national popular vote.  They pretty much sit at opposite sides of each other partisanshipwise.

[THG]

I have this race as Likely or Safe D even.

The only thing the GOP has going for them in Colorado is some WWC and Hispanic voters in the southern part of the state, but the Denver metro area is probably going to get even uglier for them soon.

[Schiff for Senate]

- D+13 in 2020, 9 points more D than the nation as a whole

- near 20-point D trend in 20 years

- furthest to the left of the nation it’s been in more than 100 years (1916)

- only MD and VT trended more sharply away from Republicans in 2020

- incumbent generic Republican who only narrowly beat a flawed D incumbent in a R year loses by 9 points to a lackluster challenger

- every single Congressional district trended D in 2020

- heart of the GOP base (El Paso County) that’s essential to any R statewide path shifts from R+35 (2004) to R+20 (2012) to R+11 (2020) in less than two decades

- all three major suburban Denver counties, two of which were won by Bush in his narrow-ish victory against Kerry, just voted to the left of NJ

- Biden comes within 1% of winning every age cohort, wins 18-29 group by 44 points (70-26)

It’s Safe D, irrespective of this or any other poll. Even in a very favorable R year, the party is extremely unlikely to win the GCB by more than 2-3 points (and I wouldn’t necessarily bet on them winning it at all), nowhere near enough to put this race in play. Uniform swing isn’t real, but when the trendlines paint such an unambiguous picture, it will require exceptional circumstances to bet against the dominant party. CO is quickly on its way to becoming one of the most D states in the nation.

I may disagree with your politics but your predictions are great. You nailed this one, though the last sentence is an exaggeration. Bennet wins and by double digits.