More likely to flip: Indiana or Virginia?

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Honestly can't tell. VA's not going anywhere with Trump at the helm. Then again, Indiana's almost as titanium R as in 2004...

[Bojack Horseman]

This might be an interesting question if you asked "West Virginia or Virginia".

West Virginia's a lost cause for Democrats.  Some board posters think that West Virginia will be the first state to revolt against Trump if he doesn't deliver on his promises, but I doubt it... it's socially conservative voters who despise "elitist east coast types."

I don't think it's dead to WV Democrats just yet. Manchin types can still win, and I think there are better days ahead for the WV Democratic Party. But don't expect it to vote D in a presidential year anytime soon, I agree.

[Suburbia]

Indiana. Someone like Cory Booker or Sherrod Brown could win the state.

[Xing]

I don't think Trump will do as well in Indiana in 2020, since Indiana tends to be tough on incumbents, but I have a very hard time seeing Indiana even come close to flipping. He'd have to lose an insane amount of support. So I'd say Virginia, even though it's hard to imagine him winning it.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

I don't think Trump will do as well in Indiana in 2020, since Indiana tends to be tough on incumbents, but I have a very hard time seeing Indiana even come close to flipping. He'd have to lose an insane amount of support. So I'd say Virginia, even though it's hard to imagine him winning it.

-Indiana was one of the few states in the country that trended toward Bush in 04, so I wouldn't call it anti-incumbent per se.

[TDAS04]

Probably Virginia, but it would be nice if that weren't the case.  Hopefully Trump will be in so much trouble by the election that Indiana will be more likely to flip.

[RFayette]

Indiana. Someone like Cory Booker or Sherrod Brown could win the state.

LOLno.  Obama's '08 victory in Indiana was not because he was black (though it did help in Lake/Marion County turnout), but rather the immense negative impact on the RV industry that high oil prices and the recession caused, along with the recession crushing manufacturing jobs as well as the unpopularity of the Iraq War, plus Obama massively outspending McCain.  It seems unlikely that these events would be replicated with Booker.

[Figueira]

Indiana. Someone like Cory Booker or Sherrod Brown could win the state.

"Someone like Cory Booker or Sherrod Brown"? What does that even mean?

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Indiana. Someone like Cory Booker or Sherrod Brown could win the state.

"Someone like Cory Booker or Sherrod Brown"? What does that even mean?

-"A Senator to the right of Sanders, but to the left of HRC."
http://voteview.com/SENATE_SORT113.HTM

[Figueira]

Indiana. Someone like Cory Booker or Sherrod Brown could win the state.

"Someone like Cory Booker or Sherrod Brown"? What does that even mean?

-"A Senator to the right of Sanders, but to the left of HRC."
http://voteview.com/SENATE_SORT113.HTM

How is Booker to the left of Clinton? And even so, ideology is not everything in politics.

[Bismarck]

Virginia of course. Hillary won it with a small plurality. Trump won Indiana with a huge majority and still has room to grow in the suburbs where he underperformed. Sherrod Brown is way too far left for my state, the idea that rural midwesterners, especially in the lower Midwest, are waiting for the white true leftist hero is an atlas fiction. Booker couldn't beat Trump here either barring a major crisis, Obama 08 was a fluke, the random time when Nate Silver's 5% chance wins.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Virginia of course. Hillary won it with a small plurality. Trump won Indiana with a huge majority and still has room to grow in the suburbs where he underperformed. Sherrod Brown is way too far left for my state, the idea that rural midwesterners, especially in the lower Midwest, are waiting for the white true leftist hero is an atlas fiction. Booker couldn't beat Trump here either barring a major crisis, Obama 08 was a fluke, the random time when Nate Silver's 5% chance wins.

[DPKdebator]

Virginia of course. Hillary won it with a small plurality. Trump won Indiana with a huge majority and still has room to grow in the suburbs where he underperformed. Sherrod Brown is way too far left for my state, the idea that rural midwesterners, especially in the lower Midwest, are waiting for the white true leftist hero is an atlas fiction. Booker couldn't beat Trump here either barring a major crisis, Obama 08 was a fluke, the random time when Nate Silver's 5% chance wins.

[Liberal_1776]

Interesting question, and as others have mentioned, I really don't think either is likely. I could see Virginia voting for a John Kasich or Susan Collins, but I think that Trump's populist message puts off the state where Ed Gillespie is the top Republican. Maybe if it were a real landslide, but I think Nevada, New Hampshire, Maine, Nevada, and Colorado would flip first.

India voted Democratic in 2008, but I'm pretty sure that was a one-time thing. Even when it looks like Democrats are going to win races in the Hoosier State, like with Bayh, or John Gregg, Republicans usually end up winning. Joe Donnelly is the exception, though. It'll be interesting to see what happens with Donnelly in 2018. Without a really successful Democrat who appeals to white, working-class voters, Indiana will remain a Trump state.

[Senator Spark]

Virginia

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Virginia

I'd have to agree because Indiana is gonna kick out Silent Joe Donnelly in 2018. Stutzman is getting the seat he should have gotten last year.

[AGA]

Why are people acting like Virginia is Titanium D now? Hillary Clinton picked a Virginian as her running mate and geared her campaign message toward wealthy suburban voters like the ones in NOVA, but she only won the state by 5 points. 5 points is still a good margin for Virginia but is nowhere near the 19 points by which Trump carried Indiana.

[Bojack Horseman]

Virginia

I'd have to agree because Indiana is gonna kick out Silent Joe Donnelly in 2018. Stutzman is getting the seat he should have gotten last year.

Not in a Dem wave year.

[Heisenberg]

Virginia

I'd have to agree because Indiana is gonna kick out Silent Joe Donnelly in 2018. Stutzman is getting the seat he should have gotten last year.

Stutzman might do even worse in 2018 than he did in 2016. I agree that Donnelly will almost certainly lose, but not to him.

JCL, you need to stop obsessing over Lil' Marlin. He's done with electoral politics. He's now got a consulting/lobbying job, and the Ethics Committee is still going after him I think.