I don't see how Barnes does worse than Kerry in the Rust Belt. Kerry really was about as terrible a candidate for that part of the country as you can get within the Democratic Party mainstream.
In the midwest I can see why you'd think so, but the Massachusetts senator did as good as the Dems will get in the northeast.
Oh, definitely. I see how Barnes loses NH and possibly ME against Bush and how NJ and CN become much closer. It's Barnes losing the PA/OH/MI complex and especially IL that I'm not so sure about.