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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Coolface's deceased great-granduncle, Apocrypha)
  Roy Barnes vs. Bush 2004
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Author Topic: Roy Barnes vs. Bush 2004  (Read 1604 times)
Barnes
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« on: February 20, 2012, 01:35:22 am »

What if Barnes narrowly wins reelection against Sonny Perdue (most polls pointed to him doing so), and then (don't ask me how, or why), he wins the Democratic nomination in 2004?

Who would he pick as his running mate, and how would he have done against Bush?  And don't worry, I won't take him losing too personally. Grin

BTW, assume that he's fairly popular as Gov. in '04.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2012, 02:22:17 am »
« Edited: February 21, 2012, 12:09:41 am by Jerseyrules »

Don't know much about him, but from what I got from Wikipedia, I think this is possible:

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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2012, 02:23:52 am »

I think a Southern governor would do better in the south, but he wouldn't be able to hold his defecits in the white-collar north, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2012, 02:24:52 am »

Which is why I personally subscribe to the "Whistling past Dixie" theory.  Great book, btw.
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NHI
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« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2012, 10:14:23 am »

298
240
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2012, 10:41:32 am »

He would probably make a better VP. Dean/Barnes 2004?
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Nathan
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« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2012, 10:46:42 am »

I don't see how Barnes does worse than Kerry in the Rust Belt. Kerry really was about as terrible a candidate for that part of the country as you can get within the Democratic Party mainstream.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2012, 10:29:42 pm »

I don't see how Barnes does worse than Kerry in the Rust Belt. Kerry really was about as terrible a candidate for that part of the country as you can get within the Democratic Party mainstream.

In the midwest I can see why you'd think so, but the Massachusetts senator did as good as the Dems will get in the northeast.
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Nathan
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« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2012, 10:49:26 pm »

I don't see how Barnes does worse than Kerry in the Rust Belt. Kerry really was about as terrible a candidate for that part of the country as you can get within the Democratic Party mainstream.

In the midwest I can see why you'd think so, but the Massachusetts senator did as good as the Dems will get in the northeast.

Oh, definitely. I see how Barnes loses NH and possibly ME against Bush and how NJ and CN become much closer. It's Barnes losing the PA/OH/MI complex and especially IL that I'm not so sure about.
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MasterSanders
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« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2012, 10:58:52 pm »

Roy Barnes might have com off as a second Bill Clinton, which might have helped him. Since Barnes is from a fairly conservative state, he, like Clinton, would have an easier time playing to the middle than Kerry.

However, Barnes could easily be cariactured. Sonny Perdue's campaign helped defeat Barnes by using a puppet f a giant rat named "King Roy," in an attempt to portray him as a power grabbing despot. I could easily see a Bush ad reviving the rat image with Roy as they used the wind-surfing image with Kerry.

Barnes, running for the Democratic nomination, would have to run to the left, more so than when he was governor of Georgia. In 1990, Barnes tried to run to the right of Zell Miller, who was campaigning as a liberal! Such is single-party politics. Bush, though not as effectively as with Kerry, might be able to portray the Georgian as a flip-flopper.

As for Roy's running mate, my money who'd either be on a New Englander (Dean or Kerry) or a midwesterner (Gephardt). Heck, Richardson might have been considered to take some of Bush's support among Hispanics.

Anyway Barnes 2010, glad to talk to a fellow Georgian on the boards.

By the way, Pierre Howard would most likely succeed Barnes unless the Republicans would have captured the Governor's seat in 2006: either Casey Cagle, Herman Cain, or even Ralph Reed (depending on butterflies).

One more thing, since Barnes appointed Zell Miller to the Senate seat vacated by the late Paul Coverdell, Miller would be in an interesting situation. Miller's hawkish leanings might still put him in the Bush camp, depending on where Roy stood on the Iraq War question.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2012, 11:06:15 pm »

Roy Barnes might have com off as a second Bill Clinton, which might have helped him. Since Barnes is from a fairly conservative state, he, like Clinton, would have an easier time playing to the middle than Kerry.

However, Barnes could easily be cariactured. Sonny Perdue's campaign helped defeat Barnes by using a puppet f a giant rat named "King Roy," in an attempt to portray him as a power grabbing despot. I could easily see a Bush ad reviving the rat image with Roy as they used the wind-surfing image with Kerry.

Barnes, running for the Democratic nomination, would have to run to the left, more so than when he was governor of Georgia. In 1990, Barnes tried to run to the right of Zell Miller, who was campaigning as a liberal! Such is single-party politics. Bush, though not as effectively as with Kerry, might be able to portray the Georgian as a flip-flopper.

As for Roy's running mate, my money who'd either be on a New Englander (Dean or Kerry) or a midwesterner (Gephardt). Heck, Richardson might have been considered to take some of Bush's support among Hispanics.

Anyway Barnes 2010, glad to talk to a fellow Georgian on the boards.

By the way, Pierre Howard would most likely succeed Barnes unless the Republicans would have captured the Governor's seat in 2006: either Casey Cagle, Herman Cain, or even Ralph Reed (depending on butterflies).

One more thing, since Barnes appointed Zell Miller to the Senate seat vacated by the late Paul Coverdell, Miller would be in an interesting situation. Miller's hawkish leanings might still put him in the Bush camp, depending on where Roy stood on the Iraq War question.

It's always good to have a fellow Georgian! Grin

I forgot about that rat thing, God how I hate that thing.  But I think you're right it that Bush would have used it like Kerry's flip-flopping, although he would have had a much harder time translating the "King Roy" and "too much, too fast" image nationally - seeing as that style of management actually worked!  Grin

I doubt that Pierre would have run for Governor in 2006; I remember him being pushed from the '98 race because of some kind of scandal.  Not quite sure what...
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MasterSanders
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« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2012, 11:16:08 pm »

 Sorry, was Pierre Lt. Governor during Barnes? I posted that assuming Barnes won.

By the way, if no one knows what we are talking about concerning the "rat thing," here's a link to the video:

http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=%2F&gl=US#/watch?p=38E780727B24BF29&feature=plpp&v=am4MVv58aug


Barnes, how would you like to help me in writing a timeliness based on this premise? It has all sorts of potential.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2012, 11:22:04 pm »

Sorry, was Pierre Lt. Governor during Barnes? I posted that assuming Barnes won.

By the way, if no one knows what we are talking about concerning the "rat thing," here's a link to the video:

http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=%2F&gl=US#/watch?p=38E780727B24BF29&feature=plpp&v=am4MVv58aug


Barnes, how would you like to help me in writing a timeliness based on this premise? It has all sorts of potential.

Your thinking of Mark Taylor, he actually did run against Sonny in '06.

That would be very interesting!  I'll PM you. Grin
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MasterSanders
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« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2012, 11:26:14 pm »

Sorry, was Pierre Lt. Governor during Barnes? I posted that assuming Barnes won.

By the way, if no one knows what we are talking about concerning the "rat thing," here's a link to the video:

http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=%2F&gl=US#/watch?p=38E780727B24BF29&feature=plpp&v=am4MVv58aug


Barnes, how would you like to help me in writing a timeliness based on this premise? It has all sorts of potential.

Your thinking of Mark Taylor, he actually did run against Sonny in '06.

That would be very interesting!  I'll PM you. Grin

Thanks, man. I got my Lieutenant Governors mixed up.

Anyway, this should be fun.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2012, 11:34:34 pm »

Election Day Map:


Final Result:


Bush - 306 EV's, 50% of Popular Vote
Barnes - 232 EV's, 47% of Popular Vote

Barnes would do very well in the South, and would come extremely close to carrying LA, AR, MO, NC, and WV, but only is able to carry Georgia. Barnes does slightly worse than Kerry in the Rust Belt and New England.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2012, 12:05:47 am »
« Edited: February 21, 2012, 12:10:57 am by Jerseyrules »

I don't see how Barnes does worse than Kerry in the Rust Belt. Kerry really was about as terrible a candidate for that part of the country as you can get within the Democratic Party mainstream.

In the midwest I can see why you'd think so, but the Massachusetts senator did as good as the Dems will get in the northeast.

Oh, definitely. I see how Barnes loses NH and possibly ME against Bush and how NJ and CN become much closer. It's Barnes losing the PA/OH/MI complex and especially IL that I'm not so sure about.

I was really showing the best case scenario for bush, and IL would be even closer than it was in 1960 if carried by Bush.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2012, 09:18:37 am »

269-269

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Cory Booker
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« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2012, 02:33:31 pm »

A Gov Barnes/Warner map or it could be the reverse

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MasterSanders
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« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2012, 03:07:30 pm »

A Gov Barnes/Warner map or it could be the reverse



How does Barnes lose Georgia?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2012, 03:30:23 pm »

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MasterSanders
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« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2012, 04:26:03 pm »


Better.

Hey, maybe in the distant future, I might write a timeliness based on this scenario. Could I use your map?
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2012, 11:03:11 pm »


Better.

Hey, maybe in the distant future, I might write a timeliness based on this scenario. Could I use your map?
I was also thinking about writing a timeline on a Bush vs Barnes scenario. Why Pennsylvania and not Ohio?

Ohio is more populist, which is the group that would've been courted by a southern dem governor.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #22 on: February 23, 2012, 02:09:53 am »


Better.

Hey, maybe in the distant future, I might write a timeliness based on this scenario. Could I use your map?
I was also thinking about writing a timeline on a Bush vs Barnes scenario. Why Pennsylvania and not Ohio?

Ohio is more populist, which is the group that would've been courted by a southern dem governor.

Okay. What about Georgia? Is it solidly in Barnes's column?

Depends on if W. runs his campaign the same as otl and how Barnes runs his.
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