Redistricting victims next cycle.

[politicallefty]

So, with all the changes in governors and legislatures, anyone want to amend their picks for redistricting victims? 

It should be interesting to see what IL Dems do now that they have a 13-5 advantage and literally control their hand-crafted R vote sink in the Chicago suburbs. With IL expected to lose a seat, I’m curious to see how Democrats force Republicans to take the hit while combining the Democratic areas of IL-12 and IL-13 into one seat. I think 14-3 is a definite dummymander unless they get very creative with Chicago.

Personally, I think it’s probably safer to go 13-4. We can easily shore up IL-06 and IL-14. It’s a lot harder to shore up IL-17. I know Cheri Bustos is a strong incumbent, but I don’t trust a district like that. But short of moving into Chicagoland, it’s going to be a tortured monstrosity that might even shame Maryland Dems.

[politicallefty]

So, with all the changes in governors and legislatures, anyone want to amend their picks for redistricting victims?  

It should be interesting to see what IL Dems do now that they have a 13-5 advantage and literally control their hand-crafted R vote sink in the Chicago suburbs. With IL expected to lose a seat, I’m curious to see how Democrats force Republicans to take the hit while combining the Democratic areas of IL-12 and IL-13 into one seat. I think 14-3 is a definite dummymander unless they get very creative with Chicago.

Personally, I think it’s probably safer to go 13-4. We can easily shore up IL-06 and IL-14. It’s a lot harder to shore up IL-17. I know Cheri Bustos is a strong incumbent, but I don’t trust a district like that. But short of moving into Chicagoland, it’s going to be a tortured monstrosity that might even shame Maryland Dems.

I think they will shore up IL-06 and IL-14 by stretching them into chunks of Chicago proper (both IL-01 and IL-07 can spare plenty).  

If you merge IL-12 and IL-13 there are more downstate votes left you can give to IL-17 to keep it with a Dem PVI. But there is really nothing you can do to keep the seat from going competitive sooner or later. I still though think that 13-4 is the likely outcome, but its IL-14 taking the hit, unless Chicago gets weird.

Ironically, this map was designed for a 13-5 D majority., but not this way. We were supposed to keep and maintain IL-12 and IL-13 and Rs were supposed to be sunk into IL-06 and IL-14. Dems can get creative with Chicago and we’ve made huge gains in historically Republican suburbs like DuPage County. The thinking was that we could’ve won a downstate district and shored it up by letting another go. Personally, I think we need to give up on that. Any Dem plan for the next decade needs to shore up the incumbents we have now (assuming they all win in 2020).

With IL likely(?) losing a seat, we will need downstate cities to ensure a safe district for Bustos (not sure where she lives though). If IL were to hold at 18 seats, Dems would reconfigure IL-12 and IL-13 into one Likely D seat and one Safe R seat. Downstate IL is where the Dem gerrymander has failed.

[politicallefty]

So, with all the changes in governors and legislatures, anyone want to amend their picks for redistricting victims?  

It should be interesting to see what IL Dems do now that they have a 13-5 advantage and literally control their hand-crafted R vote sink in the Chicago suburbs. With IL expected to lose a seat, I’m curious to see how Democrats force Republicans to take the hit while combining the Democratic areas of IL-12 and IL-13 into one seat. I think 14-3 is a definite dummymander unless they get very creative with Chicago.

Personally, I think it’s probably safer to go 13-4. We can easily shore up IL-06 and IL-14. It’s a lot harder to shore up IL-17. I know Cheri Bustos is a strong incumbent, but I don’t trust a district like that. But short of moving into Chicagoland, it’s going to be a tortured monstrosity that might even shame Maryland Dems.

I think they will shore up IL-06 and IL-14 by stretching them into chunks of Chicago proper (both IL-01 and IL-07 can spare plenty).  

If you merge IL-12 and IL-13 there are more downstate votes left you can give to IL-17 to keep it with a Dem PVI. But there is really nothing you can do to keep the seat from going competitive sooner or later. I still though think that 13-4 is the likely outcome, but its IL-14 taking the hit, unless Chicago gets weird.

Ironically, this map was designed for a 13-5 D majority., but not this way. We were supposed to keep and maintain IL-12 and IL-13 and Rs were supposed to be sunk into IL-06 and IL-14. Dems can get creative with Chicago and we’ve made huge gains in historically Republican suburbs like DuPage County. The thinking was that we could’ve won a downstate district and shored it up by letting another go. Personally, I think we need to give up on that. Any Dem plan for the next decade needs to shore up the incumbents we have now (assuming they all win in 2020).

With IL likely(?) losing a seat, we will need downstate cities to ensure a safe district for Bustos (not sure where she lives though). If IL were to hold at 18 seats, Dems would reconfigure IL-12 and IL-13 into one Likely D seat and one Safe R seat. Downstate IL is where the Dem gerrymander has failed.

Even if Illinois loses a seat they still combine Il 12th and 13th. They are too far away from Bustos's district to actually gerrymander up there. If I had to guess for bustos they might keep a tentacle that goes from the northwest corner to Lake county to stave of the republican trend of the district.

I thought the same, but not in light of taking IL-14. I just don’t think a 14-3 map is realistic in IL. If someone can post a map proving otherwise, I’d be happy to see it. I think the best they do is try to string some Democratic areas together and maybe get a tilt-R district. I’m looking at this in terms of our current political paradigm where Trumpism is here to stay.

[politicallefty]

I haven’t played around with IL in awhile, but I am convinced 14-3 can work. I think anything further risks dummymander. It’s also necessary to ensure our incumbents are highly protected, especially Bustos. I’m not sure where she lives, but I’m sure she can win any D-leaning district drawn for her. She’s running for leadership, so her protection is a priority. Also, did you account for the fact that downstate districts are bleeding population? Those districts will have to expand to account for uneven population shifts.