PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Left Wing]

Cartwright seems like a better bet at this point

It would probably be smarter to elevate Cartwright given the state of his district, and I like him, but I doubt he beats Fetterman in a primary. The Scranton area can't exactly compete with Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman isn't going to be the candidate of choice for Philly or its suburbs; he'll get killed there in the primary.  I'm not saying Cartwright will do any better, but the point stands.  I also don't think it's clear that Fetterman would wipe the floor with Cartwright in the Pittsburgh area.  He might, but it's not a given.  Lamb would certainly beat Fetterman there if he runs.  Fetterman is also pretty untested and while he may well prove to be a really strong candidate, right now there's not much to back up all the hype. 

You're right, but I don't think Fetterman is going to get a substantial challenge. Shapiro, darling of the Philadelphia suburbs is probably going for the governorship. Lamb I don't buy is running, and maybe Houlahan runs, but I don't think she can beat Fetterman. Cartwright's base is the Scranton area, and I don't buy that he could draw serious support in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman running probably means Wolf is behind him privately anyway.

Houlahan would wipe the floor with Fetterman in a one on one primary.  Also, I see no reason to think Wolf is supporting Fetterman, I think read that they don’t even get along very well (but don’t quote me on that).

That seems rather confident about Houlahan. Fetterman has the name recognition and almost certainly a fundraising advantage. And he has the advantage of having been elected statewide over her. I don’t see much reason to believe that she’d be a particularly strong candidate or that she’s even considering running at all. Also Wolf and Fetterman do seem like they get along pretty well, at least compared to Stack.

[Left Wing]

Wasn't Lamb's house seat closer than people expected?

He's also of the age where he could easily jump to another state wide office later on, or just retire and wait for it to come up...

Lamb should try and go for AG when Shapiro (hopefully) is elected Governor.

Too much of a downgrade for Lamb. I assume he'd only take that post as a last resort.

Well if he loses re-election to the house, a statewide appointment wouldn’t be THAT much of a downgrade. It depends heavily on what his district looks like in 2022.

[Left Wing]

Still with Fetterman. I wouldn't mind Cartwright, he seems really good as well, but a couple things swing it for me:

1. It doesn't seem like he actually is like uber-popular in the district, he won by a lot in 2016 but that election was much less polarized against some no-name underfunded opponent and he won by much less in 2020 (and I'm pretty sure his district voted for Biden anyway)
2. Even if he does have some unique appeal, I feel like keeping that seat in the House might also be important
3. I feel like the optics of a D candidate from Western PA are good

Fetterman seems no less strong than Cartwright, has been elected statewide (even if only as part of a gubernatorial ticket), and risks nothing if he loses, so I'm still on board.

Trump actually won his district by a few points IIRC

[Left Wing]

I feel so in the middle on Fetterman. I think some people are being way too overly skeptical of him and acting as if he'd get torn apart statewide because he's a scary socialist or something, which there isn't really any evidence for. On the other hand some people seem to think there will be droves of wwc Trump voters that will line up to vote for him, which there also isn't really any evidence for in his electoral record. I think there's a lot of uncertainty to how he would do and I'm hoping Cartwright is the nominee as he has a more proven record of overperformance but also has the same progressive credentials. I don't really see any of the other members of the PA house delegation as particularly strong, they mostly feel interchangeable.

[Left Wing]

I’m still praying with every fiber of my being for a Cartwright Senate run.  I am highly biased because I’m from NEPA, but c’mon, TWO Senators and a President from #BlueCollar #CoalMining #Populist Scranton?  NUT

(Also, Cartwright is just a really decent human being, from every interaction I’ve had with him and his team)

Nah. I have no problem with a senator Cartwright, but I'd prefer a senator fetterman no to Lemoore. Besides, Cartwright running would make his congressional seat likely to flip.

Either him or Wild is getting drawn out so that won’t really be an issue.

[Left Wing]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361462198237822979
Lol he is so low energy

[Left Wing]

cartwright pls

[Left Wing]

I feel like Kenyatta vs. Fetterman is going to end up as the next Kennedy vs. Markey on here. As in, a primary where supporters of both candidates get into bitter debates about who’s better when both basically have the same position on every issue. I really don’t see this seat flipping with a contentious primary like the one in 2016.

I just wish Matt Cartwright would run.

[Left Wing]

Don't get the hype about Cartwright. Yeah, he did great in his district, but that's more reason for him to STAY there, b/c we'd lose that seat then if he'd lose. And I don't see Cartwright performing any different than someone like Lamb statewide. People may hate Lamb here for some reason, but PA is still very much a tossup, so I think he'd be an Ossoff-type statewide candidate (and I mean that in a good way)

Cartwright massively overperformed and Lamb actually did a little worse than Biden iirc (If not, he barely did better). And as for the district point, assuming that 2022 House elections are conducted under redistricted maps, likely either Cartwright or Susan Wild will be cut, if he’s the one being cut there’s no reason for him to try and run in an unwinnable district while the senate seat is sitting right in front of him.

[Left Wing]

Honestly the discourse from this primary is already giving me a sinking feeling about the general election result. Any nominee is going to come out of the primary with a lot more vitriol and that's not exactly the recipe for victory in a state that's 3.5 points to the right of the nation in an R leaning year. None of the current candidates in the race have shown any kind of unique electoral strength, and any that may exist could be washed away by a bitter primary. I want Cartwright as the nominee, but just think how much better it would have been if Tom Wolf had run (Then it would be the true FL-2018 redux).

[Left Wing]

Fetterman has chosen to duck a forum, his main rivals in this race will attend (Street is completely irrelevant)

https://twitter.com/PASenateWatch/status/1483594027236737029

Fetterman has done more to sabotage his own campaign in the last couple weeks than any other candidate could've dreamed of doing to him.

Yet another piece of evidence that Fetterman sees the primary as his without having to work for it. This shows that he's a bad general election candidate.

https://mobile.twitter.com/giselefetterman/status/1483571071660052481


The senate was in session the night of the debate, ignoring his job to take part in primary debates (which very few people watch anyway) would be the far worse move.