PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is unbeatable just like Casey is, in 2024

[wbrocks67]

Costello would be a sh**tshow

Costello is such a squirmy and milquetoast person; I just don't see who his constituency is. He's not even believable anymore for the moderate college+ whites

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Costello is the nominee, I'd move the race from tilt R to pure tossup, choosing Fetterman at gunpoint. Costello's schtick might not work directly on voters but his "moderate FF" bonafides (and the return to a previous form of Republicanism) might still be intact in the eyes of cable news programs which could subsequently talk him up in a race against E X T R E M E John Fetterman.

It's a lot easier to be given the benefit of the doubt and pull his sort of nonsense off when his party is in the minority and in a Democratic trifecta's midterm to boot.

[Brittain33]

How is someone who retired from Congress because the party was too Trumpy going to win this primary?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

How is someone who retired from Congress because the party was too Trumpy going to win this primary?

I agree he's unlikely to win the primary, but Costello retired from Congress primarily for electoral reasons.

[wbrocks67]

If Costello is the nominee, I'd move the race from tilt R to pure tossup, choosing Fetterman at gunpoint. Costello's schtick might not work directly on voters but his "moderate FF" bonafides (and the return to a previous form of Republicanism) might still be intact in the eyes of cable news programs which could subsequently talk him up in a race against E X T R E M E John Fetterman.

It's a lot easier to be given the benefit of the doubt and pull his sort of nonsense off when his party is in the minority and in a Democratic trifecta's midterm to boot.

I think they're all at a disadvantage though; it's hard to label Fetterman a "radical". He's been very public the past few years, he's very well known, and I just don't see the "radical socialist" schtick working on him

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Costello is the nominee, I'd move the race from tilt R to pure tossup, choosing Fetterman at gunpoint. Costello's schtick might not work directly on voters but his "moderate FF" bonafides (and the return to a previous form of Republicanism) might still be intact in the eyes of cable news programs which could subsequently talk him up in a race against E X T R E M E John Fetterman.

It's a lot easier to be given the benefit of the doubt and pull his sort of nonsense off when his party is in the minority and in a Democratic trifecta's midterm to boot.

I think they're all at a disadvantage though; it's hard to label Fetterman a "radical". He's been very public the past few years, he's very well known, and I just don't see the "radical socialist" schtick working on him

I have doubts about the efficacy of that rhetoric in general, but what I mean is that if Costello is perceived to be a Paul Ryan Republican and Fetterman continues to seem a transformative type of Democrat, a significant number of commentators who otherwise would stay neutral or even Democratic-leaning could play along with the attack line (and that might give it some oomph).

[wbrocks67]

People in Philly don't even particularly like Kenney so i'm not sure who his constituency is here either

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1354072151293362183

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Kenney is just desperately trying to get attention and will float his interest in any office as long as he stays in the headlines.

[cg41386]

Kenney is just desperately trying to get attention and will float his interest in any office as long as he stays in the headlines.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This isn't bad at all, we will win PA with either one, we have two offices. In case Fetterman doesn't run

[Flyersfan232]

People in Philly don't even particularly like Kenney so i'm not sure who his constituency is here either

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1354072151293362183

Drugs addicts

[Roll Roons]

Why is Kenney unpopular?

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/29/trump-navy-secretary-pennsylvania-senate-463848

Former Trump Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite may be considering a bid. He also worked for Arlen Specter, so he's hardly a full-blown MAGA guy.

[coloradocowboi]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/29/trump-navy-secretary-pennsylvania-senate-463848

Former Trump Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite may be considering a bid. He also worked for Arlen Specter, so he's hardly a full-blown MAGA guy.

This is maybe the only GOP candidate mentioned thus far that I think would have the upperhand against Fetterman. Very dangerous for Dems. Hopefully he isn't crazy enough for the PAGOP

[Boss_Rahm]

Why is Kenney unpopular?

Multiple inexcusable failures in the last 8 months alone:

https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/100000007174941/philadelphia-tear-gas-george-floyd-protests.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/27/philly-fighting-covid-vaccine/

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If anything Kenney might be good for Fetterman. Split a little bit of the Southeast PA vote/establishment vote

[ctherainbow]

I’m still praying with every fiber of my being for a Cartwright Senate run.  I am highly biased because I’m from NEPA, but c’mon, TWO Senators and a President from #BlueCollar #CoalMining #Populist Scranton?  NUT

(Also, Cartwright is just a really decent human being, from every interaction I’ve had with him and his team)

[Badger]

It's real simple Pennsylvania Democrats. Shapiro for governor, fetterman for Senate, lamb for attorney general. Clear the freaking primary field if you want any chance in November because it's a Biden midterm.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's real simple Pennsylvania Democrats. Shapiro for governor, fetterman for Senate, lamb for attorney general. Clear the freaking primary field if you want any chance in November because it's a Biden midterm.

Shapiro for Governor is correct, but Fetterman should run for re-election as LG (or Doyle’s seat if he retires). He’s the guy you run when you expect a Democratic wave year like 2018.  

Cartwright should be our nominee for Senate and if not him, then even Lamb is probably a safer choice than Fetterman this cycle for several reasons (I don’t think we should run Lamb either b/c I suspect he might try some Manchin/Sinema BS re: opposing nuking the filibuster):

1) PA is not a Berniecrat-friendly state as far as statewide races go; 2) Fetterman has never won a GE for anything in his own right higher than Mayor of Braddock, PA so he’s pretty untested compared to our other options; 3) There is no evidence that Fetterman has any special appeal in a key region (in fact, he has no real track record of electoral success beyond winning a clown car LG primary largely b/c the geographical base breakdown of an incredibly fractured field was exclusively to his advantage); 4) There is reason to think Lamb and especially Cartwright would over-perform generic D in key regions based on their past election results

Cartwright is an over-performer in a tough region who has proven crossover appeal despite not being a ConservaDem.  He’s got some progressive views, but also hasn’t branded himself as a Berniecrat (or an establishmentarian).  I just don’t see how, logically speaking, we’d be better off running an untested candidate who has never won a competitive GE for Congress or statewide office in a state that in a Democratic President’s midterm just b/c Fetterman has gotten a lot of hype from the #RoseTwitter crowd.  

As for the others, AG would probably be a step down for Lamb unless he’s given an unwinnable district.  Houlihan is basically generic D imo, speaking of potential candidates.  

TL;DR: At a bare minimum, Fetterman should face a serious primary opponent if only to get a better sense of whether the hype is actually warranted before it’s too late to go with someone else.  We have a strong bench; why roll the dice on an untested candidate when we could run a proven over-performer who still has at least some very progressive positions on issues like healthcare (I.e. Matt Cartwright).

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1355573918640304131

[KaiserDave]

I'm for Cartwright I think here, it makes a lot of logistical and practical sense.

I'm starting to think Fetterman is a paper tiger, not because of "spooky scary socialism" or anything like that, just because he's untested.

Cartwright is a battle tested winner with a proven record of winning Trump voters with a strong progressive platform. Let's go with Matt!

[GALeftist]

Still with Fetterman. I wouldn't mind Cartwright, he seems really good as well, but a couple things swing it for me:

1. It doesn't seem like he actually is like uber-popular in the district, he won by a lot in 2016 but that election was much less polarized against some no-name underfunded opponent and he won by much less in 2020 (and I'm pretty sure his district voted for Biden anyway) EDIT: it appears I am not very smart and his district voted Trump after all
2. Even if he does have some unique appeal, I feel like keeping that seat in the House might also be important
3. I feel like the optics of a D candidate from Western PA are good

Fetterman seems no less strong than Cartwright, has been elected statewide (even if only as part of a gubernatorial ticket), and risks nothing if he loses, so I'm still on board.

[KaiserDave]

Still with Fetterman. I wouldn't mind Cartwright, he seems really good as well, but a couple things swing it for me:

1. It doesn't seem like he actually is like uber-popular in the district, he won by a lot in 2016 but that election was much less polarized against some no-name underfunded opponent and he won by much less in 2020 (and I'm pretty sure his district voted for Biden anyway)
2. Even if he does have some unique appeal, I feel like keeping that seat in the House might also be important
3. I feel like the optics of a D candidate from Western PA are good

Fetterman seems no less strong than Cartwright, has been elected statewide (even if only as part of a gubernatorial ticket), and risks nothing if he loses, so I'm still on board.

Some refutations

1. Biden didn’t win Cartwright’s district (I’m 95% sure of this)
2. His district will probably become unwinnable due to reapportionment
3. Scranton is #populist country too!

Cartwright is a battle tested progressive champion of working people. Fetterman is that but without the testing. That’s how I make the decision

[Left Wing]

Still with Fetterman. I wouldn't mind Cartwright, he seems really good as well, but a couple things swing it for me:

1. It doesn't seem like he actually is like uber-popular in the district, he won by a lot in 2016 but that election was much less polarized against some no-name underfunded opponent and he won by much less in 2020 (and I'm pretty sure his district voted for Biden anyway)
2. Even if he does have some unique appeal, I feel like keeping that seat in the House might also be important
3. I feel like the optics of a D candidate from Western PA are good

Fetterman seems no less strong than Cartwright, has been elected statewide (even if only as part of a gubernatorial ticket), and risks nothing if he loses, so I'm still on board.

Trump actually won his district by a few points IIRC