2012 Prediction Map

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Palin

Palin wins 10% or more
Palin wins 5.0-9.9%
Palin wins under 5%
Obama wins under 5%
Obama wins 5.0%-9.9%
Obama wins 10% to 40%
Obama wins over 40%

Nebraska splits its electoral votes, NE-01 and NE-02 going to Obama

Utah is no mistake; Sarah Palin says something stupid about Mormonism, and Mormons in Utah show her that even Utah can vote for a Democrat who says a few nice things about Mormons and their economic ways when a Republican nominee offends Mormon sensibilities.

[pbrower2a]

Obama, 54% approval rating, interstate polarization greatly reduced:

Sacrificial Lamb wins 10% or more
Sacrificial Lamb wins 5.0-9.9%
Sacrificial Lamb wins under 5%
Obama wins under 5%
Obama wins 5.0%-9.9%
Obama wins 10% to 40%
Obama wins over 40%

Obama wins 56-43 in the popular vote and 459-79 in the Electoral College. The divide between Kentucky and Tennessee (narrowest win and loss, respectively)  shows the line of victory. Obama slips a little in much of the northeastern quadrant of the US, but not enough to endanger anything other than Indiana.  

[pbrower2a]

This is a scenario I devised on the assumption that the President's approval ratings continue to drop.

Barack Obama/Joe Biden vs. Mike Huckabee/Scott Brown

Republicans: 274
Democrats: 264

You cannot predict a trend in approval ratings lasting more than a couple of months.

1. It's the economy, stupid. People vote on pocket-book issues.

People don't have to see a full recovery by 2012 to develop optimism in place of fear.

2. War and peace. We are getting troops out of Iraq as their need becomes less obvious. We are going in deeper in Afghanistan, which makes that not so much a bargain... but should the Surge in Afghanistan work, then President Obama has solved a problem that he has inherited -- with an exclamation point.

3. Scandals. It's good to avoid them, for obvious reasons.

4. The presence or absence of a challenge from the Left. If a Nader-like candidate wins 5% of the vote in 2012, then Obama is cooked.

5. Strength or weakness of the Republican opponent. The mediocre-to-dreadful George W. Bush won election because his opponent fell for some baited traps. Should the GOP run someone from the ideological fringe, then that candidate will lose. The Republicans must run someone who can appeal to "moderate" voters in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan to force President Obama to campaign in his own "must-win" states.

6. Electoral fraud. God help us should that happen.   

7. Competence of the campaign. If Obama goes after Texas when a combination of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan is easier to get but on the brink of losing -- then he will lose. Obama had a superb electoral machine in 2008, and I fully expect him to bring it out of mothballs in 2012.

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Pawlenty

Fixed.

[pbrower2a]

One way to rule out someone posing as me: I do not use profanity. The sharpest word that I use is either d@mn or "bullhist" (note the metathesis).

[pbrower2a]

How Obama does at 50% to 54%:

At 50%, Obama wins everything in maroon, and the two states in ruby would be in doubt. He would need to win one of Colorado and Virginia

At 51%, Obama clearly wins Colorado and Virginia,  with Florida and Ohio (ordinary red) in doubt.

At 52%, Obama has picked up anything in any shade of red that isn't really pink... but definitely not Indiana, North Carolina, or the Second Congressional District of Nebraska (in pink).

At 53%, President Obama likely picks up those in pink that he won in 2008 and Missouri (yellow) at 53% of the vote, should the situation be much as in 2008.  At this point, Arizona (no favorite-son candidate) and Georgia (large military presence) get iffy. If Obama has successfully extricated American troops from Iraq and has started to do so in a dignified manner from Afghanistan, you might see Georgia go for him, perhaps instead of Indiana, Missouri, or North Carolina.  But that itself suggests changes in political reality that could be pushing President Obama into the 55+% range of the popular vote.

At 54% or more of the vote, realities are very different from the norm in elections of 2000, 2005, and 2008. The interstate polarization of votes has likely abated significantly -- in part because Obama has likely maxed out in states that he won by gigantic margins in 2008.  What Obama may be losing in the Blue Firewall (perhaps winning Michigan by 8% instead of 16%) he is picking up in states that decisively voted against him in 2008 -- most likely South Carolina, Texas, the two Dakotas, the First Congressional District of Nebraska, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Tennessee. The tendency of Montana to vote against the incumbent is overpowered at this point. The green colors indicate a landslide in  electoral votes, as a 54% popular vote implies one.

Appreciably beyond 55%? If you are a Republican,  you would probably rather see an automobile graveyard.  

[pbrower2a]

Pbrower, what states does Obama win with a more realistic so unrealistic a share of the popular vote, like around 40%?

DC
Hawaii
Rhode Island
Vermont

49% -- take away all states not in maroon... and Iowa and New Hampshire.

48% -- take away Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as well, and probably Michigan because the economy is so f---ed up.

[pbrower2a]

In all of these maps shades reflect the level of contestability of individual states. The lighter the colors, the hotter the contests will be in them. Dark shades indicate states in which little campaigning will be done; medium shades those in which campaigning will be over in October unless they trap one of the candidates to waste time and advertising there; light shades will be iffy one way or the other; white means "don't stay awake to find out".

Equal popular votes:

President Obama has been a mediocre President at best, and he has disappointed many who expected better results.  Facing a weak opponent he has a chance to get by (think of Dubya in 2004).


Colorado or Virginia will be very slow decisions, but in view of the likely reapportionment of electoral votes, it will all boil down to Virginia. Florida and Ohio will have been decided around 1AM on Wednesday for the Republican nominee, and Colorado won't be enough this time.  In 2008, Obama could have won election with fewer votes than McCain by winning Colorado -- now he could lose despite a plurality.

..........

At a 1% edge for Obama (probably 50-49):

Maybe he has gotten us out of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, only to have an economic setback as part of the usual cost of the end of a war. He wins because of Virginia and Colorado, with Florida and Ohio becoming "iffy".  If this scenario appears in September it offers the Republican nominee some chances for victory. November 1? Forget it.

.....

At 53-46, one might expect results to look much as they did in 2008, with Obama picking up Missouri. Not quite. Interstate polarization of the vote likely peaked in 2008, which still shows in Obama winning Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by lesser margins. Republican politicians have re-organized some with new candidates who can't be linked to Dubya. Obama is picking off the states that he would have picked off in 2008 by razor-thin margins, but what he is losing in the Blue Firewall he is gaining elsewhere, like Arizona and Georgia. Michigan does go into the safe zone (it is like Minnesota or Wisconsin except for having more African-American voters)

At this point, President Obama is winning firmly enough that few people predict a loss by him. With only states shaded in red (but not white), Obama ends up with about the same number of electoral votes in 2012 as in 2008. Arizona and Georgia together would put him in the range of Clinton-scale landslides.

.....

55-44? The Republicans are still doing better in the Blue Firewall in 2012 than in 2008, but they see many of the strengths that they had since 2000 disappearing:

   

Texas is in jeopardy, and it is not part of the question to the $200 clue "The Lone Star State".  This is the verge of a very nasty landslide.
 

[pbrower2a]

Playing it safe:

Texas was about as far from going Democratic as Pennsylvania was from going Republican. (fixed)

[pbrower2a]

Here's my map for a Obama v. Generic GOPher

70% States : 10% + for Obama / Generic GOP
40% States : 5%-9.99% for Obama / Generic GOP
30% States : 0.01%-4.99% for Obama / Generic GOP

Nebraska has a high likelihood (at least 30%) of splitting its electoral votes, and about a third of that is the chance that it will give 2 to Obama; it is in yellow.

Recent polls suggest that states are tending toward the mean, reversing the polarization that began to appear in the 1990s and reached its extreme in 2008.   


Of course, it's still very early to be claiming a winner. But......I think Obama will win in 2012 because the "dream" opponent will not materialize by then .

[pbrower2a]

Since when has a "30% chance" been a high likelihood?
The chances of Nebraska splitting it's electoral votes are about the same as Minnesota voting for the GOP candidate, if not worse.

My criterion is  one electoral vote -- typically the Second Congressional District, a/k/a Greater Omaha, which went to President Obama in 2008. Omaha may be more conservative than most American large cities.

Indiana doesn't vote for the Democratic nominee, either... whoops!

 

[pbrower2a]

Playing it safe:

Texas was about as far from going Democratic as Pennsylvania was from going Democratic Republican.

Uh...PA is far more likely to go Democratic than Texas, unless I'm missing something....

I think it was a typo and he meant Pennsylvania going Republican.

Yes.