NY: Trump on Trial!

[Ferguson97]

Yeah it’s not as simple as that . It’s easy to say this but reality is different than theory .

You know who agrees with me on this , Barack Obama

Obama was wrong.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah it’s not as simple as that . It’s easy to say this but reality is different than theory .

You know who agrees with me on this , Barack Obama

Obama was wrong.

I disagree as arresting Bush and Cheney would have not been good for our nation .

[Xing]

If this country is so weak that holding Donald Trump accountable for breaking the law is too much, then America is truly broken and dysfunctional, and deserves mass disorder.

[Edu]

I disagree as arresting Bush and Cheney would have not been good for our nation.

lmao, the "greatest democracy" and the "leader of the free world" can't handle one of their leaders being tried for crimes and corruption without everything collapsing into civil strife. SAD!

[longtimelurker]

On cue, McCarty calls for an investigation of the investigator:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/house/mccarthy-vows-investigation-ahead-of-trump-indictment

I think I had a post a couple of years ago about how the GOP in the House would want to set up a Permanent Committee for the Investigation of Investigations of Investigations.  Of Investigations.

[BG-NY]

Biden needs to be very careful how he speaks about this.

"This is a New York State matter.  The federal government is not involved in this investigation or indictment."

Whatever he chooses to say, I hope he is careful with his words.

[oldtimer]

If this country is so weak that holding Donald Trump accountable for breaking the law is too much, then America is truly broken and dysfunctional, and deserves mass disorder.

America is too big to be fully functional, on a country this big something always breaks somewhere.

The trick is to accept that it will never be perfect, rather than try wack-a-mole on it's delicate balance of problems, and risk breaking it further.

[Ferguson97]

Yeah it’s not as simple as that . It’s easy to say this but reality is different than theory .

You know who agrees with me on this , Barack Obama

Obama was wrong.

I disagree as arresting Bush and Cheney would have not been good for our nation .

Do you think Ford was right to pardon Nixon?

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/eclipsethis2003/status/1637187901841612803

[emailking]

Yeah I don't know where he got Tuesday from anyway. They will probably give him a couple of days to surrender himself in NY.

[Ferguson97]

Yeah I don't know where he got Tuesday from anyway. They will probably give him a couple of days to surrender himself in NY.

I'd be really surprised if he turned himself in, despite what he says he'd love nothing more than a picture of himself in cuffs, so he can really sell the "martyr" angle.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah it’s not as simple as that . It’s easy to say this but reality is different than theory .

You know who agrees with me on this , Barack Obama

Obama was wrong.

I disagree as arresting Bush and Cheney would have not been good for our nation .

Do you think Ford was right to pardon Nixon?

With Hindsight Yes. It's clear his decision to pardon Nixon helped us move on from Nixon faster

[Inmate Trump]

I don’t think he’s gotten any word at all of an arrest.

This is just his way of making himself a martyr. Or if there is an indictment but no arrest, he’s trying to make the other side look weaker like he simply bullied them into submission. His supporters will like that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DougJBalloon/status/1637282221932560384

Saw this and it kind of crystallized something I've been mulling over.  I don't think an indictment will change very many votes in either direction.  Here's why:

Who will change their mind to vote for Trump solely because he's been indicted?  If someone wasn't already going to vote for him, an indictment is surely no plus.  Perhaps there are a few people who might do it as a root-for-the-underdog thing (although the idea of Trump as an underdog in life is rather laughable), but it's got to be a very small number.

Who will change their mind to NOT vote for Trump because of the indictment?  Most people who have stuck with him this long are solidly behind him regardless of any of his negatives, as in his famous "I could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue" quote.  He won't lose many, if any, diehard supporters over this.

The only place I can see it making a difference is among truly undecided voters, in either the primary or general election, trying to make up their minds at the last minute, and this could be the straw that tips them into voting for someone else or just sitting out.

On balance, I see at most a small negative electoral effect for Trump.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/DougJBalloon/status/1637282221932560384

Saw this and it kind of crystallized something I've been mulling over.  I don't think an indictment will change very many votes in either direction.  Here's why:

Who will change their mind to vote for Trump solely because he's been indicted?  If someone wasn't already going to vote for him, an indictment is surely no plus.  Perhaps there are a few people who might do it as a root-for-the-underdog thing (although the idea of Trump as an underdog in life is rather laughable), but it's got to be a very small number.

Who will change their mind to NOT vote for Trump because of the indictment?  Most people who have stuck with him this long are solidly behind him regardless of any of his negatives, as in his famous "I could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue" quote.  He won't lose many, if any, diehard supporters over this.

The only place I can see it making a difference is among truly undecided voters, in either the primary or general election, trying to make up their minds at the last minute, and this could be the straw that tips them into voting for someone else or just sitting out.

On balance, I see at most a small negative electoral effect for Trump.

The only two ways I can see it really having much electoral impact are A) that there will be a brief “circle the wagons” surge of support for Trump strictly within the Republican Party base much like the one for the 1-2 weeks after the Mar-a-Lago search warrant was executed and B) in the (imo highly unlikely*) event that there is 1/6 levels of violence (tbh, I am far more worried that the media will diminish the impact of 1/6 by hysterically babbling about a “second 1/6” if there are a few scattered instances of 2-3 idiots breaking a few store windows here and there).  However, if there is widespread violence on anything like a 1/6 scale, I think that will hurt Trump really badly with everyone except the Republican base, the Republican infotainment propaganda complex, and the party’s national elected officials.  In other words, if things get that bad, then everyone who isn’t already a diehard Republican hack is gonna be appalled by it (again). 

This is basically just Trump trying to bully the legal system into letting him break the law with impunity by threatening to burn the house down with mob violence.  A democracy that lets someone do that isn’t worth saving b/c the rule of law is already dead in such a country. 

On a semi-related note, I think Alvin Bragg is a pretty vile individual for numerous reasons that have nothing to do with Trump (although his BS shenanigans to try to block the publication of a book criticizing his handling of the Trump investigations certainly didn’t raise my opinion of him).  Bragg is the worst kind of “progressive” prosecutor: one who badly damages the criminal justice reform movement by implementing all sorts of batsh!t insane policies that distort the public’s views of what the movement is fighting for simply b/c he sees it as a way to raise his profile by competing with folks like Gascon to see who can be the softest on crime.  Bragg is a grifter first, a politician second, and a public servant last. 

I could absolutely believe that he’s only resurrected this case b/c he is afraid of the damage to his reputation from that ex-prosecutor’s book about how he shut down a stronger case about 2-3 weeks before Trump was going to be indicted.  Plus, he claimed there was still an ongoing investigation into Trump to counter said criticism, but for that to be true, there needs to…you know…be an ongoing investigation. 

That said, just b/c Bragg is a schmuck who may have some less than pure motives doesn’t mean indicting Trump for this is the wrong decision.  My understanding is that NY prosecutors initially opted against pursuing this aggressively b/c of how much would rely on Michael Cohen’s testimony.  He has been interviewed ~15 times since then.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they decided he would be a more effective witness than they initially thought.  Moreover, there has been reporting of a surprise witness testifying to the grand jury Monday afternoon which begs the question of whether they gained another cooperator who could verify key parts of Cohen’s testimony.  I’d want to see the indictment before assessing the strength of this case, but on paper, if they think Cohen will be a compelling enough witness to survive a viciously aggressive cross-examination and/or have someone else who will back up his testimony, then sight unseen I’d say they’re probably making the right call by reviving this case.




*Not only was 1/6 an organized event with Trump present immediately beforehand to fire up the troops as it were, but it both caught folks by surprise (outside the top FBI leadership, which appears to have been content to adopt a posture of willful ignorance about how bad things could get) and - most importantly - Trump could use the levers of power in the federal executive branch to thwart efforts to respond effectively to the insurrection attempt.  Folks will almost certainly be prepared for the worst this time and Biden presumably won’t be throwing up every possible roadblock to swiftly dealing with 1/6 level violence.  On 1/6, Trump had many institutional power cards to play and did not hesitate to do so.  That will not be the case here.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

NYT Pitchbot posts basically the same exact joke multiple times each day and has been doing so for years. He is unfunny, worn out, smug and sanctimonious garbage.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

The real reason this shouldn’t be prosecuted is the case isn’t that strong at all (unless there’s something Bragg knows that we don’t) and there are better things on which to prosecute Trump. What is taking GA so long?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/DougJBalloon/status/1637282221932560384

Saw this and it kind of crystallized something I've been mulling over.  I don't think an indictment will change very many votes in either direction.  Here's why:

Who will change their mind to vote for Trump solely because he's been indicted?  If someone wasn't already going to vote for him, an indictment is surely no plus.  Perhaps there are a few people who might do it as a root-for-the-underdog thing (although the idea of Trump as an underdog in life is rather laughable), but it's got to be a very small number.

Who will change their mind to NOT vote for Trump because of the indictment?  Most people who have stuck with him this long are solidly behind him regardless of any of his negatives, as in his famous "I could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue" quote.  He won't lose many, if any, diehard supporters over this.

The only place I can see it making a difference is among truly undecided voters, in either the primary or general election, trying to make up their minds at the last minute, and this could be the straw that tips them into voting for someone else or just sitting out.

On balance, I see at most a small negative electoral effect for Trump.

As I watch the beginnings of the Republican response to this, I think there may end up being another dimension to it: hurting the GOP downballot. From Republican leadership, down to the goofiest online nutters, they're all screaming at the top of their lungs about "How dare anyone hold Trump accountable for anything!?!!"

I suspect there's a segment of swing voters who wouldn't like the GOP spending a year and a half with its number one priority as "laws shouldn't apply to rich Republicans". The charges themselves may not hurt Trump's chances (as I've said elsewhere, they might even help a little). But IF the Republican Party goes to the mat for Trump on this and other charges - making it a major talking point, neglecting their duties, even sabotaging the government in protest - I think it has the possibility to hurt them significantly downballot  (especially if it leads to GOP nominees being pro-Trump, anti-law nutters).

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Yeah I don't know where he got Tuesday from anyway. They will probably give him a couple of days to surrender himself in NY.

I'd be really surprised if he turned himself in, despite what he says he'd love nothing more than a picture of himself in cuffs, so he can really sell the "martyr" angle.

While you're right that getting arrested on camera would help him sell his claims of martyrdom, I don't know if he can actually accept being arrested. As a technically legal matter, where he's surrenders, is arrested and immediately released, yeah, I can see him (barely) tolerating that as one more step in the legal dance he's spent his life doing.

But actually getting perp walked gets awfully close to facing consequences for his actions - something he never willingly does. I think there's a non-zero chance that he fights the arrest: demanding DeSantis protect him, holing up in Mar-a-lago (like a cult leader in his compound...), or even going on the run to someplace he thinks won't extradite him. (Although short of Russia, Florida is about as safe as he can be... IF DeSantis will protect him.)

[Ferguson97]

Yeah it’s not as simple as that . It’s easy to say this but reality is different than theory .

You know who agrees with me on this , Barack Obama

Obama was wrong.

I disagree as arresting Bush and Cheney would have not been good for our nation .

Do you think Ford was right to pardon Nixon?

With Hindsight Yes. It's clear his decision to pardon Nixon helped us move on from Nixon faster

This is the exact opposite of reality.

Nixon facing no real consequences for his crimes damaged our nation. People lost trust in institutions.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah I don't know where he got Tuesday from anyway. They will probably give him a couple of days to surrender himself in NY.

I'd be really surprised if he turned himself in, despite what he says he'd love nothing more than a picture of himself in cuffs, so he can really sell the "martyr" angle.

While you're right that getting arrested on camera would help him sell his claims of martyrdom, I don't know if he can actually accept being arrested. As a technically legal matter, where he's surrenders, is arrested and immediately released, yeah, I can see him (barely) tolerating that as one more step in the legal dance he's spent his life doing.

But actually getting perp walked gets awfully close to facing consequences for his actions - something he never willingly does. I think there's a non-zero chance that he fights the arrest: demanding DeSantis protect him, holing up in Mar-a-lago (like a cult leader in his compound...), or even going on the run to someplace he thinks won't extradite him. (Although short of Russia, Florida is about as safe as he can be... IF DeSantis will protect him.)

DeSantis literally can’t protect him given the DOJ has jurisdiction over the entire country and they would extradite Trump to NY .

[ꙮ]

Yeah I don't know where he got Tuesday from anyway. They will probably give him a couple of days to surrender himself in NY.

I'd be really surprised if he turned himself in, despite what he says he'd love nothing more than a picture of himself in cuffs, so he can really sell the "martyr" angle.

While you're right that getting arrested on camera would help him sell his claims of martyrdom, I don't know if he can actually accept being arrested. As a technically legal matter, where he's surrenders, is arrested and immediately released, yeah, I can see him (barely) tolerating that as one more step in the legal dance he's spent his life doing.

But actually getting perp walked gets awfully close to facing consequences for his actions - something he never willingly does. I think there's a non-zero chance that he fights the arrest: demanding DeSantis protect him, holing up in Mar-a-lago (like a cult leader in his compound...), or even going on the run to someplace he thinks won't extradite him. (Although short of Russia, Florida is about as safe as he can be... IF DeSantis will protect him.)

DeSantis literally can’t protect him given the DOJ has jurisdiction over the entire country and they would extradite Trump to NY .

Trump demanding people “help” him in ways that are impossible is nothing new. Remember the Pence fiasco on January 6?

[Sir Mohamed]

I really don't understand why this is such a huge deal for some or why they're triggered. Just don't get it. Regardless of whether you like Trump's policies or not, at this point you need to accept that there's very strong evidence he broke multiple laws and on issues that aren't minor.

If he's really innocent as claims, let an investigation and trial happen. Whether he's a former POTUS or not is irrelevant. The law is the law. If anything, politicians should be held to higher standard that average Joe's, not to a lesser standard.

[Crumpets]

One difference between this and January 6th that may help Trump is that I think mainstream GOP politicians didn't yet appreciate on January 6th just how much pressure they were under from their primary voters to stick with Trump no matter what (see Graham's "count me out" speech from that day). And while the midterms might have tampered the "MAGA or die" part of the GOP, a lot of nominally safe incumbents (those who fear getting primaries over losing a general at least) will probably be more inclined to stay on the Trump train than they were two years ago.

[emailking]

Manhattan D.A. says attempts to intimidate office won’t be tolerated after Trump’s call for protests
Alvin Bragg sought to assure staffers in a memo that they'll be safe.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg sought to reassure his staff in an internal message Saturday that intimidation or threats against them would not be tolerated. The communication comes as his office moves forward in its investigation into former President Donald Trump, who said that he believes he will be arrested on Tuesday and put out a call for his supporters to protest.

"Please know that your safety is our top priority," Bragg said in a memo to office staff obtained by NBC News from a senior official at the Manhattan DA’s office.

He added, "We do not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office or threaten the rule of law in New York."

The letter, which was first reported by Politico, did not mention Trump by name, and referred only to "an ongoing investigation by this office."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/manhattan-d-says-attempts-intimidate-office-wont-tolerated-trumps-call-rcna75617