Cities vs. rest of county

[mileslunn]

Here is Minneapolis vs. rest of Hennepin County

Minneapolis

Biden: 204,839 (86.4%)
Trump: 26,792 (11.3%)
Total: 236,974

Rest of Hennepin County

Biden:  327,769 (63.2%)
Trump: 179,174 (34.5%)
Total:  518,973

Corcoran, Dayton, Greenfield, Hanover, Independence, Loretto, Maple Plain, Minnetrista, Mound, Rockford, Rockford, Rogers, St. Bonificiaus only Trump wins although all on west end which is more exurban than suburban.  In fact very few suburbs anywhere in Twin Cities metro area went for Trump.  It was more exurbs or rural parts of metro counties.  Interestingly enough Trump did worse in Hennepin County outside Minneapolis than Romney did in the entire county showing just how toxic his form of conservatism was compared to Romney or more traditional Republican style.

[mileslunn]

Here is Milwaukee vs. rest of Milwaukee County.

Milwaukee

Biden: 194,661 (78.8%)
Trump: 48,414 (19.6%)
Total: 246,946

Rest of Milwaukee County

Biden: 122,609 (57.8%)
Trump: 85,943 (40.5%)
Total: 212,015

Only Municipalities in Milwaukee county Trump won were Franklin, Hale's Corner, and Oak Creek and all on periphery as well by fairly narrow margins too.  Biden won big in the northern suburbs which I believe are heavily white college educated types.  Western and southern leaned Biden but more competitive which I believe are more working class.  Could be wrong, but didn't Romney and Bush 04 win rest of Milwaukee County?

[mileslunn]

A few from New England below.

Boston:

Biden:  242,717 (82.6%)
Trump: 45,425 (15.5%)
Total: 293,846

Rest of Suffolk County:

Biden: 27,805 (66.8%)
Trump: 13,188 (31.7%)
Total: 41,616

Providence:

Biden: 45,941 (80.8%)
Trump: 10,186 (17.9%)
Total: 56,858

rest of Providence County:

Biden: 120,347 (55.8%)
Trump: 92,450  (42.9%)
Total: 215,745

Hartford:

Biden: 28,301 (86.6%)
Trump: 4,116 (12.6%)
Total: 32,680

rest of Hartford County

Biden: 256,040 (61.3%)
Trump: 155,254 (37.2%)
Total: 417,843

[mileslunn]

So for rest of Maricopa County, I get following,

Trump:  731,316 (52.2%)
Biden:  649,319 (46.4%)
Total: 1,400,215

So yes Trump won rest of Maricopa County, but much closer in suburbs than it usually is.  GOP better pray Phoenix suburbs don't start voting like Denver suburbs and instead are might like Las Vegas suburbs or they are in big trouble if they start voting like Denver suburbs.  Although skeptical they will even in a decade swing that far left.

[mileslunn]

Do you have the breakdown by municipality, be interested in which suburbs Biden win.  I presume Trump won most, but by narrower margins than normal.  Also seems Northwestern part is most heavily Republican.  Is that the part with a large Mormon community?

[mileslunn]

Anyone able to code Washoe County and get breakdown by city.  Curious what Reno, Sparks results were.

For Clark county, if someone can give me precinct #'s for Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Paradise, and Henderson, I can calculate those.  Especially curious if Trump held Henderson or Biden flipped it. 

I'm gonna post this here Miles, so that we keep the data organized, and not dispersed through several unrelated threads.

Anyways, I went through Clark County's PDF which conveniently labels the precincts located in the cities. Bear in mind, I converted the file to Excel, and then ran them through filters, so these numbers might have errors, I really don't know. If someone else has different numbers, feel free to correct me!

Las Vegas: Biden 54.25 - Trump 43.66
North Las Vegas: Biden 64.22 - Trump 33.54
Henderson: Trump 51.74 - Biden 46.29

Paradise is unincorporated, so its precincts are not labeled in the document. I'm afraid I cannot crunch the numbers for that one.

So looks like rest of Clark county almost same as Las Vegas?  Interesting as Trump getting 44% in Las Vegas is pretty high for a city. 

[mileslunn]

Anyone able to code Washoe County and get breakdown by city.  Curious what Reno, Sparks results were.

For Clark county, if someone can give me precinct #'s for Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Paradise, and Henderson, I can calculate those.  Especially curious if Trump held Henderson or Biden flipped it. 

I'm gonna post this here Miles, so that we keep the data organized, and not dispersed through several unrelated threads.

Anyways, I went through Clark County's PDF which conveniently labels the precincts located in the cities. Bear in mind, I converted the file to Excel, and then ran them through filters, so these numbers might have errors, I really don't know. If someone else has different numbers, feel free to correct me!

Las Vegas: Biden 54.25 - Trump 43.66
North Las Vegas: Biden 64.22 - Trump 33.54
Henderson: Trump 51.74 - Biden 46.29

Paradise is unincorporated, so its precincts are not labeled in the document. I'm afraid I cannot crunch the numbers for that one.

So looks like rest of Clark county almost same as Las Vegas?  Interesting as Trump getting 44% in Las Vegas is pretty high for a city. 

Compared to countywide numbers, it didn't move much vs 2016.

In 2016 the city voted 52.9-41.2 for Clinton.

Wonder how things went by precinct.  Has large Hispanic community so did Trump like elsewhere improve in heavy Hispanic areas even if he lost them?  Likewise wondering if the heavily white areas swung towards Biden as it seems pretty much without exception almost all white areas in metro areas swung towards Biden even where Trump won them.

Also saw in Fox News exit poll Trump got 19% of African-American vote in Nevada which I believe was highest of any state.  Perhaps many working in service industry concerned about future lockdowns which Trump opposes.  By contrast looks like Biden won white females for Nevada while Romney won this group in 2012.

[mileslunn]

While not on list of requests here is for Washoe County

Reno:

Biden: 88,835 (52.3%)
Trump: 76,020 (44.8%)
Total: 169,786

Sparks:

Trump: 36,928 (49.9%)
Biden: 34,972 (47.3%)
Total: 74,002

Unincorporated parts

Biden: 4,245 (52%)
Trump: 3,705 (45.4%)
Total: 8,168

so rest of Washoe County

Trump: 40,633 (49.4%)
Biden: 39,217 (47.7%)
Total: 82,170

Quite shocked Biden won unincorporated parts, I assumed those would go heavily for Trump, but perhaps most are near Reno and the northern parts of county only a few precincts.

[mileslunn]

That makes sense as pretty sure the ranchers overwhelmingly went for Trump, but I expect on the Indian Reservation, Biden probably won pretty big.  I believe Native Americans are the second most reliably Democrat group after African-Americans.

[mileslunn]

So using similar format, I get following below

Birmingham:

Biden: 92,253 (83.1%)
Trump: 17,245 (15.5%)
Total: 111,002

Rest of Jefferson County

Trump: 121,198 (56.7%)
Biden: 88,683 (41.5%)
Total: 213,673

Looks like western part of county most heavily Trump, but I believe it is the more rural part while eastern part more suburban.  Birmingham I believe used to be more competitive for GOP, but hasn't city seen a lot of White flight to suburbs after past decade or two?
Total:

[mileslunn]

For Mountain Brook why error, shift reasonable and its 97% white so being in South obviously going to go heavily for Trump as unlike North where you have educational divide amongst whites, in South Trump won both college and non-college educated whites, just won latter by bigger margins.  Also quite affluent so you would expect it to not vote as heavily Trump as white working class areas would.  Considering exit polls show Trump getting close to 80% of the white vote in Alabama, around 70% seems reasonable as more college educated here.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Polk County, Iowa

Des Moines:

Biden: 64,531 (66.5%)
Trump: 30,328 (31.3%)
Total: 97,065

Rest of Polk County:

Biden: 81,719 (50.5%)
Trump: 76,472 (47.3%)

Not surprisingly Trump won big in rural portions.  Suburban generally favored Biden but were usually close and those bordering the city more favorable to him than those a bit further out.

[mileslunn]

So far which City has the biggest divide between it and the suburbs and which city has the smallest gap.

Las Vegas and El Paso are pretty much identical.  Los Angeles is surprisingly small too but many suburbs are overwhelmingly non-white and few heavily white tend to be your wealthy liberal types like Malibu.  For biggest Shelby County, Tennessee and Jefferson County, Alabama are pretty big.  Generally Deep south where things are more racially polarized is where you see big divides.  If you include smaller cities then you also see large divides as in those cases remained of county is largely rural rather than suburban.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Onondaga County, New York

Syracuse:

Biden: 36,727 (76.5%)
Trump: 9,894 (20.6%)
Total: 48,038

Rest of Onondaga County

Biden: 102,264 (53.9%)
Trump: 81,821 (43.1%)
Total: 189,698

Trump won Cicero, Elbridge, Fabius, and Otisco.  Cicero somewhat suburban but on very edge while other three largely rural so more exurban.  Ironically Biden won a number of largely rural towns such as Pompey, Spafford, and Tully.  Onondaga County suburbs are asides Geddes, Salina, and Dewitt pretty low density and include lots of countryside surrounding subdivisions so areas you would think would be more favorable to Trump, but interestingly enough were not.  And also very white, usually over 95% white.  But perhaps with large university, maybe lots of people connected with that live there thus more liberal.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Allegheny County.

Pittsburgh:

Biden: 125,398 (77.6%)
Trump: 33,831 (20.8%)
Total: 162,298

Rest of Allegheny County:

Biden: 304,821 (54.2%)
Trump: 249,082 (44.3%)
Total: 562,505

Biden won most of the Boroughs while most Townships went for Trump, although in the northern parts which traditionally go GOP, Biden made strong gains.

[mileslunn]

In Allegheny County, the following municipalities flipped:

Trump to Biden: Aleppo Township, Bradford Woods (Romney got 64% here so big swing), Bridgeville, Franklin Park (Romney got 63%), Haysville (only has 70 people though), Marshall Township (Romney got 65%, Trump won by 12 points in 2016 so big swing), McCandless Township, Ohio Township, Ross Township, Upper St. Clair Township (Romney got 62% here)



Unlike rest of Southwest Pennsylvania, seems Allegheny county suburbs on balance swung towards Biden and outperformed Obama in 2012.  Considering Pittsburgh has lots of universities and colleges, I believe Allegheny County nowadays is more white collar unlike neighboring counties are more blue collar thus different direction of swing.

There were no Clinton to Trump flips while all Obama 2012 - Trump 2016 stayed with Trump 2020 although a few tightened but none flipped.  All Romney-Clinton stayed Biden and in fact in most of those Trump fell below 40%.

[mileslunn]

Sacramento county below.  Citrus Heights was only incorporated municipality Trump won, so any idea why he won that?

Sacramento:

Biden 75.09%
Trump: 22.44%

rest of Sacramento County:

Biden: 55.1%
Trump: 42.33%

[mileslunn]

Before was approximate but here is final exact numbers for Cook County

Chicago:

Biden: 944,735 (82.53%)
Trump: 181,234 (15.83%)
Total: 1,144,741

Rest of Cook County

Biden: 781,238 (66.39%)
Trump: 377,035 (32.04%)
Total: 1,176,658

Trump won Lemont Township, Norwood Park Township, Orland Township, and Palos Township,

[mileslunn]

Got exact numbers for Mecklenburg County, see below.

Charlotte:

Biden: 285,279 (70.23%)
Trump: 114,190 (28.11%)
Total: 406,216

Rest of Mecklenburg County

Biden: 92,828 (57.72%)
Trump: 65,021 (40.43%)
Total: 160,834

So looks like Biden won rest of county.  Before wasn't able to separate by early and election day but this is what I got.  Northwestern part and very Eastern part Trump won, still don't have exact by municipality yet but areas he won fairly white and suburban.

[mileslunn]

Here is Utah County.  Biden only won one precinct as very Mormon so quite conservative, but an unusually high number of write-ins which makes sense as too conservative to consider voting Democrat, but also many Mormons dislike Trump.  Evan McMullin in 2016 won several precincts in this county.

Provo

Trump: 22,086 (54.5%)
Biden: 14,787 (36.5%)
Total: 40,539

Rest of Utah County

Trump: 170,276 (68.1%)
Biden: 61,246 (24.4%)
Total: 250,620

[mileslunn]

Here is Spokane county

Spokane:

Biden: 66,917 (56.3%)
Trump: 47,147 (39.7%)
Total: 118,829

rest of Spokane County

Trump: 101,429 (57.4%)
Biden: 68,848 (39%)
Total: 176,601

Trump won Spokane Valley by 18 points and also dominated other suburbs and rural areas.  City itself was surprisingly strong for Biden as thought it would be much closer although knew Biden won it.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Duval County.  Most of the population lives in Jacksonville, but still have the few suburbs outside of city.  Asides from Baldwin, other suburbs very white, but more upper middle class so white population doesn't vote as heavily GOP as rest of county, but still enough they win most of those.  City itself unusually high for GOP, but unlike most US cities includes areas that would be suburbs in most other cities thus more in line with a metro area in South.  Only thing that shows its culturally Southern rather than Northern (Miami more Northeastern culturally, Tampa Midwestern) is it is 30% African-American and in a northern city with an African-American population that large, Democrats would do way better.

Jacksonville

Biden: 238,486 (52%)
Trump: 213,187 (46.4%)
Total: 459,015

Rest of Duval County

Trump: 20,575 (58.5%)
Biden: 14,070 (40%)
Total: 35,146

[mileslunn]

Here is Escambia County, anybody know if this is a first as I would have thought Pensacola would have gone GOP, but turns out Biden won it.  Did Clinton win it in 2016 or did it go for Trump?

Pensacola:

Biden: 18,181 (51.5%)
Trump: 16,356 (46.4%)
Total: 35,288

Rest of Escambia County

Trump: 80,318 (59.2%)
Biden: 52,748 (38.9%)
Total: 135,568

[mileslunn]

Here is Hillsborough County

Tampa:

Biden: 115,381 (61.5%)
Trump: 69,272 (36.9%)
Total: 187,493

Rest of Hillsborough County

Biden: 260,986 (49.6%)
Trump: 258,126 (49%)
Total: 526,575

Surprised Biden narrowly won rest of Hillsborough County, but at same token like much of Florida very low density sprawl so city is more favorable to Trump than many cities elsewhere and more live outside city.  Most of rest of county is unincorporated but northwest was mix with areas just northwest of city going mostly for Biden, but those further northwest for Trump.  Eastern part went heavily for Trump.  Southern part of county more Biden, but quite competitive.

[mileslunn]

Here is Miami vs. rest of Miami-Dade County

Miami

Biden: 95,045 (59.1%)
Trump: 64,614 (40.1%)
Total: 160,949

Rest of Miami-Dade County

Biden: 522,819 (52.4%)
Trump: 468,219 (46.9%)
Total: 997,969

Trump won Bal Harbor (wealthy white area), Doral (large Cuban and Venezuelan community), Golden Beach (wealthy white area), Hialeah Gardens (majority Cuban), Hialeah (3/4 Cuban-American), Indian Creek Village (rich white area), Medley (majority Cuban-American), Miami Lakes (Large Cuban-American community), Sunny Beach Isles (large Jewish and Cuban, wondering if Hasidic as they voted for Trump, while liberal and reform Jews mostly for Biden), Miami Springs (large Cuban-American), Sweetwater (almost half Cuban-American), Virginia Gardens (large Cuban-American), West Miami (majority Cuban).

Looking through this, looks like Trump as expected won big in areas with large Cuban-American.  Biden won big in areas with large African-American including even Haitian and Jamaican immigrants although I don't think West Indian community was quite as lopsided for Biden as African-American community, but still of foreign born population; Black immigrants definitely voted most heavily Democrat.  White areas leaned Trump but a mix with the more affluent and lots of seniors going for Trump.  Younger ones depended but Trump did surprisingly well in heavily Jewish areas and also well in areas with lots of Eastern European immigrants too.  For Hispanics, not all predominately Hispanic areas went for Trump.  Biden won big amongst Central American immigrants while South American was a mix (I believe Trump won Venezuelan and Colombian but Biden won Peruvian and Argentine).

Miami for city itself did go pretty heavily GOP relatively speaking as in most other city centrals, usually GOP is under 30% and in many cases in teens.  But then again, Hispanic community in Miami is much more friendly to GOP than elsewhere due to fact large chunk are Cuban-American.