Ohio redistricting thread

[Greedo punched first]

In 2022, does Chabot retire or lose?

[Greedo punched first]

A four-year map only happens if the first three rounds to fail. Isn’t it more likely the GOP draws a slightly less favorable map than the current one for 10 years?

[Greedo punched first]

A four-year map only happens if the first three rounds to fail. Isn’t it more likely the GOP draws a slightly less favorable map than the current one for 10 years?

Why would a 4 year map be bad for the GOP?
I guess there is the slight risk of losing two statewide races(governor + auditor) and then the D's can gerrymander to a degree back but its unlikely and 4 year maps are also good in the sense that they now a legal excuse to do a Delaymander to fix any possible "trends" such as swing backs in the Mahoning Valley or further trends in Columbus.

Is there any chance that both parties will agree in round 1, 2, or 3?

[Greedo punched first]

I think Democrats get 5 or 6 out of the 15 seats. Chabot’s Cincinnati district becomes Democratic. O’Connor might get a seat in Columbus.

[Greedo punched first]

I think Democrats get 5 or 6 out of the 15 seats. Chabot’s Cincinnati district becomes Democratic. O’Connor might get a seat in Columbus.

6 seats is going really far and what a fair map would result in and only happens if the Ohio GOP doesn't control the supreme court, if they do the best I would expect is one Cinci, One columbus, Cleveland VRA, Lean D toledo and Akron/Youngstown and everything else Likely/Safe R, and reminder its still legal to draw a 13-2 map
https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1252801397831188483

(Krazen's account btw so mods can give a fair "warning" if im a sock

Then it’s 10-5 (with a Democratic Cincinnati district).

[Greedo punched first]

Cincinnati gets a Democratic district. Chabot has one of the most ridiculous districts.

[Greedo punched first]

Doesn't Cincinnati get a Democratic district because of the rules on county splitting?

[Greedo punched first]

Doesn't Cincinnati get a Democratic district because of the rules on county splitting?

Not necessarily. The main constraint involved is that you can't split the city of Cincinnati. It is possible to put Cincinnati in a Republican district by being very judicious about what suburbs go with it and attaching Clermont County.

Would it still be less Republican than the current OH-01?

[Greedo punched first]

Doesn't Cincinnati get a Democratic district because of the rules on county splitting?

Not necessarily. The main constraint involved is that you can't split the city of Cincinnati. It is possible to put Cincinnati in a Republican district by being very judicious about what suburbs go with it and attaching Clermont County.

Would it still be less Republican than the current OH-01?

Yes it's been well established that ohio 1st can be moved to trump 7 so it's even more Republican.

Would that require cracking Cincinnati?

[Greedo punched first]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  

You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.

[Greedo punched first]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  

You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.

Wrong

You kept Cincinnati whole?

[Greedo punched first]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  

You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.

Wrong

You kept Cincinnati whole?

Yeah, look at my DRA link.

Cincinnati is whole, but I still thought the law requires it to be in a district located entirely in Hamilton County.

[Greedo punched first]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  

You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.

Wrong

You kept Cincinnati whole?

Yeah, look at my DRA link.

Cincinnati is whole, but I still thought the law requires it to be in a district located entirely in Hamilton County.

doesn't require that.  Just that a whole county is present in the district.

Did you follow these rules? 65 of Ohio’s 88 counties cannot be split at all. 18 of Ohio’s counties can be split only once. Only five counties can be split twice. So under this particular proposal, a county cannot be split three different times.

[Greedo punched first]

Delaware and Franklin both contain Columbus. Is that not an important COI?

[Greedo punched first]

Other than Chabot, who is the most vulnerable? Balderson?

[Greedo punched first]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats. 

Again, there's practically no legal argument favoring this kind of map.  There's no reason Meigs or Lawrence counties should be in the same district with the Columbus suburbs (or with Columbus itself),  or why Toledo should be paired with Darke county.

If put before a court this map would get struck down easily.  The other provisions in the reform aren't just there to look pretty.

It would only be struck down by a dem court.  It follows the criteria.

No it doesn’t. Too many county splits. Cincinnati should be in Hamilton-only OH-01.

[Greedo punched first]

again, your opinion doesn't matter.  Only the court's, which is currently repub.

The rules described are objective. Most courts understand this is easy.

[Greedo punched first]

again, your opinion doesn't matter.  Only the court's, which is currently repub.

The rules described are objective. Most courts understand this is easy.

nope.  Objective is a numerical standard.  Whether a map is fair is a matter of opinion.

I heard that if one district can be located in only one county, then it must. That is a numerical standard.

[Greedo punched first]

Columbus can be split once.

[Greedo punched first]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

That RRH 13R-2D map is illegal. Cincinnati is barely split. It also has many contiguity errors.

[Greedo punched first]

OH-06 needs to have at least one whole county to be legal.

[Greedo punched first]

Ok, here is my attempt at making a "high risk, high reward" R gerrymander that still complies with all the rules (I think; I am actually not sure if this is compliant). I did try to minimize county splits and what not; though there are still 11 cuts in counties smaller than 1 district which is quite a bit, but no county other than the one in Cleveland is split more than once; and I also kept Cleveland and Cincinnati whole. I am not sure if you need a 2nd majority black district though, so it may fail because of that instead (though that should not affect partisanship too much, if anything it would make the district even more of a pack)

This map can either be a masterful work if trends hold and what not (being a 12R-2D-1S map), or something that backfires spectacularly (being an 8D-7R map in a wave, or possibly even beyond that)



OH-01: R+9 (58R-42D composite).
OH-02: R+4 (52.5R-48.5D composite).
OH-03: D+18 (69D-31R composite; 33% Black).
OH-04: R+13 (61.5R-38.5D).
OH-05: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-06: EVEN (52D-48R composite)
OH-07: R+7 (55.5R-44.5D composite)
OH-08: R+13 (62R-38D composite)
OH-09: R+8 (56.5R-43.5D composite)
OH-10: R+6 (54R-46D composite)
OH-11: D+31 (82D-18R composite); 48% black
OH-12: R+11 (60R-40D composite)
OH-13: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-14: R+4 (52.5R-47.5D composite)
OH-15: R+7 (55R-45D composite)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/09085952-e483-4980-955c-8c8b0606a4ba

OH-6 doesn't have a whole county, and the double split OH-3 does to Trumbull wouldn't be allowed.

But beyond that, there's just no realistic way this map would withstand court scrutiny with the wording of the reform.

There was also no realistic way for the NC supreme court to strike down the map but they made up something. Partisan court means partisan decisions.

Even worse, NC didn't have a 9 page state constitutional amendment in place specific to redistricting either. 

They didn't have anything in specific to redistricting at all yet the court managed to cook up a 400 page long decision . The OHIO GOP can just say Sherrod brown won a majority of districts or something like that showing its not anti majoritarian and then the GOP court will sign off on it.

OH-06 needs at least one whole county.

[Greedo punched first]

I think Warren County is more centered around Dayton.

[Greedo punched first]

Will Cincinnati be placed in OH-01 or OH-02?

[Greedo punched first]

Will Cincinnati be placed in OH-01 or OH-02?

who knows, and what does it matter?

One of them will be lean R at best for the GOP.