COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[BlueSwan]

So Putin now claims that a Russian firm has a Corona vaccine ready.

[BlueSwan]

So Trump’s response to covid has been utterly deranged, but we probably should have expected this from what has clearly been the worst presidential adminstration in American history.

Nevertheless, I think the apathy and incompetence of Trump has probably had only a marginally negative effect on the awful consequences of this pandemic.

Here are the covid death rates (per million) in the top 10 most populous countries in the western world (Europe and North/South America).

1.) USA - 691
2.) Brazil - 735
3.) Mexico - 683
4.) Germany - 120
5.) UK - 655
6.) France - 528
7.) Italy - 613
8.) Columbia - 584
9.) Spain - 743
10.) Argentina - 625

With the sole exception of Germany, there’s very little distinguishing the outcomes in any of these countries, despite what would appear to be very different attitudes and policies toward fighting the virus.

Really, this has not been a failure of the US.  It has been a failure of western individualist neo-liberal ideology, and even more specifically, the ideology of western medicine.  It is simply not rational in the context of a global pandemic to start from a first principle of extreme loss aversion, as western medicine trains doctors to do.

If we had treated this like a war from the start, rather than a series of millions of individual medical choices, we could have solved this pandemic months ago with a fraction of the death we have already seen.  But a war requires volunteers who are willing to risk their own individual well-being for the benefit of the safety and survival of the whole of society.  Those volunteers were readily available.  You can see almost 40,000 of them (myself included) signed up just on the 1DaySooner website.  But almost any suggestion to go down that path was immediately treated as somehow unthinkable and never even subject to serious discussion.

Once the virus as contagious as this had taken a foothold on our soil, we never stood a chance, as long as we were beholden to the individualist ideologies that made ever considering taking the necessary risks impossible.

I think those numbers overlook population density as a key explanation of covid spread. The most urban states in the US have the highest death rates in the entire world, whereas the most rural US states have very low numbers. On that list you post, the US as a whole is easily the least densely populated country.

[BlueSwan]

On that list you post, the US as a whole is easily the least densely populated country.

Argentina has actually the lowest population density in that list

EDIT: even Brazil has a lowest population density than the US

Brazil doesn't really count as large swaths of the country are virtually uninhabited.

[BlueSwan]

More than 180k cases today. sh**t is getting all too real. And it is clearly going to keep getting worse. The rate at which we are approaching the 200k cases per day marker is startling. Illinois alone is with 15k+ confirmed cases today, which is higher than CA or TX got in previous surges. The bad thing is there is no sign of any sort of deceleration, and policymakers (ha) are so far showing no signs of serious reaction. A relative of mine recently had a serious non-covid medical condition that required hospitalization, and was only barely able to get a hospital bed.

Trump actually got lucky that the election was in early november. A few weeks later and it would have been apparent to everyone how awful his handling of this pandemic has been. 300k cases per day within the next couple of weeks does not seem out of the question at this rate.

[BlueSwan]

Day 1 of no restrictions here in Denmark. Feels great. Case numbers are extremely high - more than 40k a day (10 times more than the peak last winter)- but basically nobody gets seriously sick from Omicron here. The total number of people in intensive care is now a paltry 28 persons and is now the lowest since october, which was pre-Omicron. Basically, we have had record high infections throughout january while at the very same time the number of infected in intensive care has fallen by 60%. This is because basically everybody who needed intensive care from COVID had the Delta variant and now that we basically only have Omicron nobody needs intensive care anymore. The remaining 28 are mostly NOT there because of their Omicron infection, but just happen to have it. This is even more pronounced when you look at deaths, where pretty much everyone currently registrered as dying from COVID is actually dying WITH COVID instead, unlike earlier in the pandemic.  

I have supported restrictions and mandates since the beginning, but people need to start to realize that the Omicron variant really isn't very dangerous and that we have ALL the medical tools to combat this disease now in vaccines and therapeutics (most notably Paxlovid from Pfizer). I have no idea why other countries aren't doing like Denmark and the UK at this point. I imagine it has to be right around the corner.

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that all restrictions were dropped by a united parliament. All parties/groups in parliament supported it, from the far left to the far right.

[BlueSwan]

Thanks for pinging me Sol!

May as well take this opportunity to throw in a few graphs:





It is, in fact, appropriate to change your views on Covid mitigation measures (and all other things) as the evidence changes. We just aren't facing the same disease anymore. People who compared Covid to the flu two years ago were dumb and wrong. People who don't think they're similar today (with some age-related discrepancies) are correspondingly incorrect. If you didn't think doing (x) to stop the spread of the flu was a good idea in 2019, it isn't logical to support doing (x) to stop the spread of Covid today.

Yes, indeed.

I am amazed at the sheer stupidity of people who conclude that because the Omicron variant isn't very dangerous now, COVID was never dangerous to begin with. The ignorance is mind-numbing.

[BlueSwan]

Anyway if BA.2 started in Denmark then it's worth noting that Denmark recently lifted all Covid restrictions. So....

Things are good here in Denmark. Not much reason to be concerned about BA.2 as of yet.

So we still have super high infection rates (about 20% of the population have been infected just since christmas) but people just don't get very sick. There's only roughly 30 people in intensive care (and much fewer because of covid) despite 40k+ people getting infected per day. The death rates are highly misleading in that these are almost all people who are dying WITH covid rather than because of covid. Hospitalization rates are also misleading in that less than 50% are getting admitted because of covid, they just happen to also have covid.

Believe me, our government and health authorities have generally been VERY cautious and highly restrictive throughout this pandemic. We wouldn't have lifted all restrictions if we weren't very sure that it's the right approach now.

[BlueSwan]

Denmark was very good. They reopened schools for kids  as soon as April 15 2020, probably first in the [Western] world! And I believe, they kept schools mostly open since then?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-reopening-idUSKBN2341N7
Reopening schools in Denmark did not worsen outbreak, data shows

Following a one-month lockdown, Denmark allowed children between two to 12 years back in day cares and schools on April 15. Based on five weeks’ worth of data, health authorities are now for the first time saying the move did not make the virus proliferate.

Not quite.

Schools closed down again december 2020 and didn’t reopen until spring 2021. Then they also closed down just a few days before christmas 2021 because of the huge omicron surge until we figured out that omicron was really a blessing in disguise and the key to ending the pandemic.