Control of Congressional Redistricting as of 2018 elections

[Mr.Phips]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

I suggest you add a "lean" category for those states with weak commissions or laws regarding redistricting.
-KY as said has a law preventing cutting counties over 1 CD, which practically means that the partisan balance of the state cannot change - but KY06 probably becomes more Pub.
-OH as stated has a commission but it is a partisan one. Most people I have talked with agree the commission will give dems a competitive seat or two and reinforce their existing seats in exchange for allowing pubs to gerry the rest of the state.
-NY has a law requiring a independent mapper. But the legislature, if unified, can reject the commissioners maps and draw their own.
-MO similarly now requires a special nonpartisan appointee to draw said maps. probably means the 6-2 divide continues.
-FL similarly has the fair districts amendment, which requires centralized districts with ideally competitive PVIs, and requires more Majority-Minority districts then the VRA necessitates. Though considering what happened in 2011, its questionable if the republicans would respect said guidelines.
 

Iowa is literally a computer that draws the lines at random.

[Mr.Phips]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

I suggest you add a "lean" category for those states with weak commissions or laws regarding redistricting.
-KY as said has a law preventing cutting counties over 1 CD, which practically means that the partisan balance of the state cannot change - but KY06 probably becomes more Pub.
-OH as stated has a commission but it is a partisan one. Most people I have talked with agree the commission will give dems a competitive seat or two and reinforce their existing seats in exchange for allowing pubs to gerry the rest of the state.
-NY has a law requiring a independent mapper. But the legislature, if unified, can reject the commissioners maps and draw their own.
-MO similarly now requires a special nonpartisan appointee to draw said maps. probably means the 6-2 divide continues.
-FL similarly has the fair districts amendment, which requires centralized districts with ideally competitive PVIs, and requires more Majority-Minority districts then the VRA necessitates. Though considering what happened in 2011, its questionable if the republicans would respect said guidelines.
 

Iowa is literally a computer that draws the lines at random.

The computer generates maps that have very low levels of distribution. If I recall from 2010, the legislature then picked certain maps they liked from said generation.

I remember reading about the 1981 redistricting when Republicans last had the trifecta in Iowa.  Apparently someone said that the computer must be a Democrat since every map it produced looked like a Dem gerrymander.

[Mr.Phips]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

Pretty much this, except that I believe KS Republicans can also override the Democratic governor.

They can, but Republicans are only like two seats over the two thirds mark in the House and there are some moderate Republicans that would not agree to pass a map that goes too crazy.

[Mr.Phips]

could bel edwards get two vra districts?

No because reps will have a near super majority by 2022 and Cedric Richmond needs to win with 80 percent so he will tell no democrats to vote against 2 60 percent dem districts.

Richmond would have no problem in a 60% Dem district.

[Mr.Phips]

could bel edwards get two vra districts?

No because reps will have a near super majority by 2022 and Cedric Richmond needs to win with 80 percent so he will tell no democrats to vote against 2 60 percent dem districts.

Richmond would have no problem in a 60% Dem district.

Black dems want 80 percent districts. They will backstab fellow democrats like Russ carnahan

The Dem leadership needs to get tougher with them.  What use is being elected if your party has no power because they are packed into as few districts as possible?

[Mr.Phips]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

[Mr.Phips]

Maybe the Republican SCOTUS majority will just vote down Democratic gerrymanders and not bother with setting precedents.

Roberts and Kavanaugh will rule that it is OK for Republicans to gerrymander, but not OK for Democrats to gerrymander.

That's basically what they would be saying if they struck down the Maryland map, but not the ones in NC and OH or AL and LA where Dems were cheated out of a second AA majority (or near AA majority) seat.

[Mr.Phips]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

Actually he is very relavent
All he has to do is push a black friendly map and black legilsators will stab white democrats so there are more black majority districts.

It's already pretty black friendly.  Under the current map, a black would win MD-05 if open in addition to the two seats they already have.

[Mr.Phips]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

Actually he is very relavent
All he has to do is push a black friendly map and black legilsators will stab white democrats so there are more black majority districts.

It's already pretty black friendly.  Under the current map, a black would win MD-05 if open in addition to the two seats they already have.

Hogan could push for 4 black friendly seats and 1 white dem seat 1 Lean R and 2 Safe R and the black legislators would stab the whites in the back to get that extra seat.

I don't think you could possibly do four black friendly seats.

[Mr.Phips]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

Actually he is very relavent
All he has to do is push a black friendly map and black legilsators will stab white democrats so there are more black majority districts.

It's already pretty black friendly.  Under the current map, a black would win MD-05 if open in addition to the two seats they already have.

Hogan could push for 4 black friendly seats and 1 white dem seat 1 Lean R and 2 Safe R and the black legislators would stab the whites in the back to get that extra seat.

That would be impossible and also breaks the VRA. The best MD Black Dems can hope for is the 2 VRA required black majority seats (1 each in Baltimore and DC suburbs) and 1 majority minority seat in the DC suburbs.

That's basically what already exists.  MD-05 will be won by a black when Hoyer retires.

[Mr.Phips]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

The legislature couldn't agree on the last U.S. House map, so it was drawn by the courts. Of course, that was with a divided legislature, which New York likely won't have after 2020 - I'd never say never in New York because Senate Democrats were unable to effectively govern the last time they had nominal control of the legislature, and you can't rule out a new IDC forming, because it's New York.

While it's possible to make NY-22 bluer, there's only so far you could go without taking more urban parts of the Albany or Syracuse areas into the district. The commission probably wouldn't do that, as the North Country is its own community of interest. But we'll see.

All they would need to do to make NY-22 bluer is to create a Utica to Syracuse district.  NY-24 would be the district that gets eliminated.

[Mr.Phips]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

The legislature couldn't agree on the last U.S. House map, so it was drawn by the courts. Of course, that was with a divided legislature, which New York likely won't have after 2020 - I'd never say never in New York because Senate Democrats were unable to effectively govern the last time they had nominal control of the legislature, and you can't rule out a new IDC forming, because it's New York.

While it's possible to make NY-22 bluer, there's only so far you could go without taking more urban parts of the Albany or Syracuse areas into the district. The commission probably wouldn't do that, as the North Country is its own community of interest. But we'll see.

All they would need to do to make NY-22 bluer is to create a Utica to Syracuse district.  NY-24 would be the district that gets eliminated.

Who wins Katko or brindisi. The two moderate heroes. Atlas would nut

Brindisi wins (if he survives 2020) unless 2022 is a Republican wave (even then Brindisi might win) Brindisi would carry Utica and would probably get a decent margin in Onondoga county (Katko actually lost Onondoga to a weak opponent this year) as Brindisi is stronger than any opponent that Katko has ever faced.  Even Hillary would have won 49%-45% in this district.  This would pretty much be a tailor made district for Brindisi.

[Mr.Phips]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

The legislature couldn't agree on the last U.S. House map, so it was drawn by the courts. Of course, that was with a divided legislature, which New York likely won't have after 2020 - I'd never say never in New York because Senate Democrats were unable to effectively govern the last time they had nominal control of the legislature, and you can't rule out a new IDC forming, because it's New York.

While it's possible to make NY-22 bluer, there's only so far you could go without taking more urban parts of the Albany or Syracuse areas into the district. The commission probably wouldn't do that, as the North Country is its own community of interest. But we'll see.

All they would need to do to make NY-22 bluer is to create a Utica to Syracuse district.  NY-24 would be the district that gets eliminated.

Who wins Katko or brindisi. The two moderate heroes. Atlas would nut

Brindisi wins (if he survives 2020) unless 2022 is a Republican wave (even then Brindisi might win) Brindisi would carry Utica and would probably get a decent margin in Onondoga county (Katko actually lost Onondoga to a weak opponent this year) as Brindisi is stronger than any opponent that Katko has ever faced.  Even Hillary would have won 49%-45% in this district.  This would pretty much be a tailor made district for Brindisi.

I mean Brindisi barely beat Tenney in 2018 while Katko btfo Maffei.

The current NY-22 has a lot of very Republican territory.  Changing it to just Oneida and Onondoga leaves Brindisi with his strongest territory and Katko with his weakest territory.

[Mr.Phips]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

NY-22 being eliminated probably helps Stefanik - her seat could stand to gain parts of Oneida, which is reliably R turf.

Much of Oneida would go to Brindisi, while Stefanik would pick up Oswego and maybe Cayuga and the rest of Herkimer, which she'd be fine with.

[Mr.Phips]

Tompkins is sitting there too waiting to help a Democrat (NY-22 or NY-24).

That could go to NY-19 maybe to pretty much recreate the old Maurice Hinchey district. Delgado would love it.