Cities vs. rest of county

[NOVA Green]

I will post the Portland vs Multnomah County numbers once everything is complete--- Or possibly earlier...  (Vast majority of votes appear to be calculated, but since it's such a large pop county, my current assumption is that stuff might trickle in from other counties where ballots were dropped off at ballot drop boxes and have been shipped over to Multnomah).

I could run the current numbers, but I would have to manually tabulate data from all of the precincts, and plus repeat the exercise later on elsewhere. (So might take 30 Minutes rather than just grabbing the datasets in a CVS compatible file format, where it's simply a case of exporting to Excel, doing some Text to Columns, and then adding my precinct codes by Municipality).

I might run the numbers this weekend if I get a chance, and don't get sidetracked with other projects.

Fun Project!

Like where you're going with this---

You will be able to harvest all of your CA numbers by Municipality once CA posts it's Supplemental Statement of Votes Cast.

Some of the Midwest States also collect data by Municipality once votes are official (Wisconsin and Ohio, I believe are two such States)--- not totally sure about MI and IN, but once precinct results are official, I believe it's pretty straightforward to consolidate by Municipality.

Some of these other places get a bit tricky without doing detailed forensic analysis, where you start getting into stuff like split-precincts etc... (Oklahoma City I believe is one such example).

TX might be a bit tricky for similar reasons.

Haven't played around that much with FL, GA or NC outside of certain cities, so will need to look at 2020 precinct coding vs 2016 precinct coding to see various changes.

I will definitely be looking at the Omaha, Nebraska Final Results at some point.

[NOVA Green]

Multnomah County, Oregon 2020:


Portland:

Trump:   51,633     (13.4%)        (+70.4% Biden)     +5.4% Biden Swing
Biden:  322,031     (83.8%)
Misc:     10,741      ( 2.8%)
TOTAL:  384,405



Non-Portland:

Trump: 31,090     (39.8%)        (+17.0% Biden)       +5.6% Biden Swing
Biden:  44,415     (56.8%)
Misc:     2,622      ( 3.4%)
TOTAL:  78,127

Multnomah County, Oregon 2016:

Portland:

Trump:   42,649    (12.8%)        (+65.0% HRC)
HRC:  259,753      (77.8%)
Misc:     31,131       (9.3%)
TOTAL:  333,533

Non-Portland:

Trump: 25,305     (38.6%)        (+11.4.% HRC)
HRC:  32,808     (50.0%)
Misc:      7,457     (11.4%)
TOTAL:  65,570 

[NOVA Green]

Multnomah County, Oregon 2020:


Portland:

Trump:   51,633     (13.4%)        (+70.4% Biden)     +5.4% Biden Swing
Biden:  322,031     (83.8%)
Misc:     10,741      ( 2.8%)
TOTAL:  384,405



Non-Portland:

Trump: 31,090     (39.8%)        (+17.0% Biden)       +5.6% Biden Swing
Biden:  44,415     (56.8%)
Misc:     2,622      ( 3.4%)
TOTAL:  78,127

Multnomah County, Oregon 2016:

Portland:

Trump:   42,649    (12.8%)        (+65.0% HRC)
HRC:  259,753      (77.8%)
Misc:     31,131       (9.3%)
TOTAL:  333,533

Non-Portland:

Trump: 25,305     (38.6%)        (+11.4.% HRC)
HRC:  32,808     (50.0%)
Misc:      7,457     (11.4%)
TOTAL:  65,570  

Interesting Multonomah county suburbs went more Republican than Washington County, any reason why?  Even with Clackamas County, pretty sure Trump got under 40% if you take only the suburban parts as he likely won big in the rural parts thus why overall numbers at 43%.

Mileslunn--- if you are interested in detailed breakdowns of election results in Portland and the "Suburbs", this might be some good introductory reading material, from a 2016 OR GE thread where I explored in extensive detail results from Oregon.

It is not the "end all be all definitive work", but it does cover and crunch down numbers for practically every part of Oregon in fairly extensive levels of detail. (I am currently working a 2020 version, but am awaiting final results for many places before pursuing it further).

Just click on the directory and get hyperlinked to some (6) posts involving Clackamas County, (6) posts involving Multnomah County, and (7) posts involving Washington County.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5386692#msg5386692

I am still waiting to update my current 2020 thread, since currently no election results are yet certified in Oregon, so I want to ensure that I can contribute more definitive results for the entire State of Oregon, within a broader historical context and narrative.

NOVA GREEN OR GE 2020 ELECTION MEGATHREAD:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7750271#msg7750271

I am just getting started, and actually my first County Project which I have been working on is one of the most heavily Republican County in Oregon West of the Cascades: Douglas County.

[NOVA Green]

Interesting Multonomah county suburbs went more Republican than Washington County, any reason why?  Even with Clackamas County, pretty sure Trump got under 40% if you take only the suburban parts as he likely won big in the rural parts thus why overall numbers at 43%.

This is probably the norm. Multnomah County suburbs are basically just Gresham--which is pretty WWC and far from Downtown. By contrast, Beaverton/Tigard/Bethany are super educated and actually much closer to the urban core.

Easternmost Portland smoothly transitions into Gresham around 9 miles east of downtown. By contrast, the Washington County suburbs are separated from the downtown core by a low mountain range.

45 didn’t actually lose any support from 2016, although it doesn’t seem like he made super obvious gains with PDX area nonwhites either. The jump from 80s-10s Biden to 70s-20s Biden east of 82nd Ave is similar to what we saw in the Dem primaries.  I think the 53-45 Biden precinct is a relatively White precinct in easternmost Portland?

Thanks khuzifenq!!!

I have effectively ceded the terrain of the Cities (Portland & Metro) to highly qualified posters from Oregon such as yourself, since things have changed over the years and cycles, and perhaps much better equipped to provide "real time" data, since it has been (4) Years since I lived in Portland (Although we still got family up there).



Compare and contrast to political elections:

Multnomah County:

Portland:

2020:   384.4 k TV

DEM:    322.0k      (+270.4k D)     +53.2k DEM GAIN '16-'20)
PUB:      51.6k

2016:  

DEM:    259.8k      (+217.2k D)
PUB:      42.6k

Similar Patterns elsewhere in Metro PDX....  Trump might have gained % margins, but with OR VbM and AVR, just the numbers from PDX alone, were massive considering how these types of raw net vote margin gains dwarfed those of the most heavily Republican Counties in Western Oregon (Douglas and Linn Counties).

[NOVA Green]

Got Franklin County, Ohio

Columbus

Biden 70.3% (260,008 votes)
Trump 27.2% (100,553 votes)

Rest of Franklin County

Biden 54.9% (131,576 votes)
Trump 42.8% (102,601 votes)

So looks like in Ohio, Cuyahoga County suburbs went pretty strongly for Biden although Trump did win a number in the southern part which is very white working class, lots with Italian and Eastern European descent, but got clobbered in the heavily African-American ones, but also lost all the lakeside ones which are more upper middle class, college educated whites.  For Franklin County, also went for Biden but Trump got over 40% in the Franklin County suburbs.  Only Hamilton county suburbs did Trump win and even there it was a lot closer than normal.

So it seems in Ohio, Biden is gaining in suburbs, but rural areas and smaller urban centers are killing the Democrats thus why losing state.

I would strongly caution against creating Municipal Level results from OH at this point as definitive numbers, considering there are still tons of votes out in Ohio (Including Franklin County).

We can treat these as prelim numbers, but when I try to post municipal numbers, I like to at least know that the overwhelming majority of the votes have actually been counted... (Felt comfortable enough will MultCo OR to at least recognize that numbers will likely barely shift once all the final numbers roll in).

[NOVA Green]

San Diego County I was able to get.  For some vote by mail although very small number, didn't assign but small enough won't change overall numbers.  San Diego actually while a Biden landslide, has pretty decent numbers for Trump for a city its size.  Mind you not a large African-American population like most cities its size and doesn't seem to have as many white liberals as you see in other coastal cities (large military presence there, although Trump not too popular amongst them)

San Diego

Biden: 68.5%
Trump 29.1%

Rest of San Diego County

Biden: 54.2%
Trump 43.5%

Again, I would advise against going too far into the weeds in California yet, although it appears that there might be only maybe 10.3k Ballots remaining in San Diego County.

As an "Old Skool" Veteran watcher of California elections, we shouldn't necessarily assume that estimated votes outstanding actually match votes outstanding.

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2020-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf?_ga=2.70659472.1606094788.1605688095-1912808327.1596831506

That being said:

The City of San Diego was 65.9% HRC and 28.0% Trump in 2016   (+37.9% D).

So assuming your numbers are accurate to date (Don't believe you cited a source), this would be something like a +1.5% D swing (Assuming no outstanding ballots are in the City proper).

Regarding San Diego as a City, me and many others are familiar with it from personal and family experience as a sprawling Metro Area (Within City Limits), but also actually traditionally one of the most Republican parts of Southern California going back decades (1980s and 1990s).

It will be interesting to look at San Diego County proper once we get all of the municipal and precinct results tabulated, since it may well either support or provide contrary evidence to some and many of the various generalizations we see floating around on Atlas, as well as among Media Pundits, who are naturally tracking our Atlas updates as Data Mining exercises, because they are a bit too lazy sometimes to do the hard lifting themselves.   

[NOVA Green]

A summary of ones still outstanding I am looking for:

Sacramento vs. rest of Sacramento county
Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County
Phoenix vs. rest of Maricopa County
Tucson vs. rest of Pima County
Omaha vs. rest of Douglas County
Tulsa vs. rest of Tulsa County
OKC vs. rest of Oklahoma County
Indianapolis vs. rest of Marion County
Memphis vs. rest of Shelby County
Rochester vs. rest of Monroe County
Buffalo vs. rest of Erie County (once counting finished)
Raleigh vs. rest of Wake County
Jacksonville vs. rest of Duval County
Tampa vs. rest of Hillsborough County
Orlando vs. rest of Orange County
Miami vs. rest of Miami-Dade County.

Tucson is on my list of places to run a compare / contrast against 2016 Election results.

I have precincts coded from a previous project, so now that the County Canvass is complete, so long as precincts didn't change, it shouldn't be too big an exercise to tabulate the 2020 numbers.

I'll see if I can get to that in the next few days, since I have a four day weekend coming up, with no Holiday plans.

[NOVA Green]

Pima County- Arizona 2020 Compare / Contrast

Tucson, Arizona 2020:

Split precincts trip it up, and honestly I haven't tried to dissect precinct shifts from '16 to '20, so am using existing 2016 precinct coding which I had, so it is entirely plausible that some splits might have been absorbed into City Limits, or even possibly the handful of "Unincorporated Precincts"....



Tucson, Arizona 2016:



1.) Tucson City Precincts:

Increase in Total Votes '16-'20:  35,926    (+22.9% Increase from 2016 TVs)

Percentage Swing from 2016 > 2020:  +4.9% D

2.) Tucson Split Precincts:

Increase in Total Votes '16-'20: +13,196  (+25.5% Increase from 2016 TVs)

Percentage Swing from 2016 > 2020:  +4.2% D

Not quite sure how you want to code the City vs Split precincts (Personally I would likely just throw them all into the batch, unless you really want to get into precinct parsing, which is quite frankly not only a pain in the arse, but also unless you really have a good handle of which precincts have a higher or lower % of voters inside and outside of Municipal Boundaries, etc you might end working on a Masters Degree project to do compare / contrasts of various large Cities over a couple decades....

A few interesting items of note:

1.) There are many parts of rural Pima County heavily dominated by Native Land, where Biden was snaking something like 90% of the Vote (Around the Tohono O'odham Nation).

2.) You also have significant rural heavily Latino Populations in the far West Precincts, as well as East and SE Precincts.

I have not examined these numbers yet.

3.) I have not yet looked at precinct level results in the most Latino precincts of Tucson to compare & contrast versus 2016 results.

4.) For anybody interested in the Military Vote in 2020:

Precinct 114 (Tucson) is a Military Base Precinct: (Davis–Monthan Air Force Base)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis%E2%80%93Monthan_Air_Force_Base

2020:

Biden:   368    (48.2%)      +0.7% D       (+11.5% D Swing)
Trump:  363    (47.5%)
Total:    764                                          (+86.7% Increase in TV)

2016:

HRC:   151    (36.9%)      +10.8% R
Trump:  195    (47.7%)
Total:    409

5.) I will be pulling the 2016 vs 2020 precinct numbers for University of Arizona Precincts on another thread...

I'll just leave it at this for now....

[NOVA Green]

Ohio just dumped their official results, which is always cool since you can download the entire precinct data set in one Excel Workbook.

Here are the numbers for the (5) largest Cities in Ohio for 2020 GE PRES, contrasted against the 2016 GE numbers (I will run #6-10 in a little bit):

Welp---  Look at the PUB swings in Cleveland (!) not to mention Toledo and Akron.

1.) Columbus- 2020:

Delaware County:    
              Biden:      3,317    (61.0%)        +23.9% Biden        (+14.4% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:     2,021    (37.1%)
              Misc:           103    ( 1.9%)   
              Total:       5,441                         +26.7% from 2016 Total Votes
Fairfield County:
              Biden:     3,181    (68.2%)         +42.6% Biden        (+4.3% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:    1,195    (25.6%)
              Misc:          286    ( 6.1%)
              Total:      4,662                          +19.0% from 2016 Total Votes
Franklin County:
             Biden:     271,782  (71.0%)         +43.6% Biden        (+4.0% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:   104,835  (27.4%)
              Misc:          6,240 (  1.6%)     
              Total:     382,857                       +7.0% from 2016 Total Votes
Columbus Total:
              Biden:     278,280  (70.8%)        +43.3% Biden       (+4.1% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:    108,051  (27.5%)
              Misc:         6,629    ( 1.7%
              Total:      392,960                      +7.4% from 2016 Total Votes

Columbus- 2016:

 Delaware County:    
              HRC:        2,232    (52.0%)        +9.5% HRC
              Trump:     1,823    (42.5%)
              Misc:           239   ( 5.6%)   
              Total:       4,294
Fairfield County:
              HRC:        2,617     (66.8%)       +38.3% HRC
              Trump:     1,118     (28.5%)
              Misc:           183     ( 4.7%)
              Total:       3,918
Franklin County:
              HRC:      241,243    (67.4%)       +39.6% HRC
              Trump:     99,575    (27.8%)
              Misc:        16,908    ( 4.7%)
              Total:     357,726
Columbus Total:
              HRC:     246,092     (67,2%)      +39.2% HRC
              Trump:  102,516     (28.0%)
              Misc:       17,330     ( 4.7%)
              Total:    365,938
 
2.) Cleveland- 2020

              Biden:     111,639    (79.9%)        +61.0% Biden        (+8.0% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      26,431    (18.9%)
              Misc:           1,676   ( 1.2%)   
              Total:       139,746                         -6.0% from 2016 Total Votes

         Cleveland- 2016

               HRC:      123,767    (83.2%)       +69.0% HRC
              Trump:     21,137    (14.2%)
              Misc:         3,824     ( 2.6%)
              Total:      148,728

3.) Cincinnati- 2020

              Biden:     106,619    (77.3%)        +56.1% Biden        (+2.8% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      29,220    (21.2%)
              Misc:          2,126   ( 1.5%)   
              Total:       137,965                         +2.0% from 2016 Total Votes

          Cincinnati- 2016

              HRC:      100,866    (74.6%)       +53.3% HRC
              Trump:     28,797    (21.3%)
              Misc:        5,589    ( 4.1%)
              Total:      135,252

4.) Toledo- 2020

              Biden:       71,662   (66.2%)        +34.2% Biden        (+2.0% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      34,651   (32.0%)
              Misc:          1,943   ( 1.8%)   
              Total:       108,256                       -3.7% from 2016 Total Votes

          Toledo- 2016

              HRC:        73,610    (65.4%)       +36.2% HRC
              Trump:     32,857    (29.2%)
              Misc:        5,589    ( 4.1%)
              Total:      112,487

5.) Akron- 2020

              Biden:       53,835   (68.2%)        +37.9% Biden       (+1.8% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      23,884   (30.3%)
              Misc:          1,211   ( 1.5%)   
              Total:       78,930                      +1.8% from 2016 Total Votes

          Akron- 2016

              HRC:        52,746    (68.0%)       +39.7% HRC
              Trump:     21,928    (28.3%)
              Misc:        2,894      ( 3.7%)
              Total:      77,568

[NOVA Green]

Ohio just dumped their official results, which is always cool since you can download the entire precinct data set in one Excel Workbook.

Here are the numbers for the (6-10) largest Cities in Ohio for 2020 GE PRES, contrasted against the 2016 GE numbers:

6.) Dayton- 2020

              Biden:       36,712    (69.8%)        +41.3% Biden        (+0.7% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      14,984    (28.5%)
              Misc:             933    ( 1.8%)   
              Total:        52,629                        -3.4% from 2016 Total Votes

          Dayton- 2016

              HRC:        37,492    (68.8%)       +42.0% HRC
              Trump:     14,626    (26.8%)
              Misc:        5,589     (10.3%)
              Total:       54,500

7.) Parma- 2020

              Biden:       18,183   (46.7%)        +5.3% Trump      (+1.4% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      20,253   (52.0%)
              Misc:             540   ( 1.4%)   
              Total:        38,976                      +9.5% from 2016 Total Votes

          Parma- 2016

              HRC:        16,268    (45.7%)       +3.9% Trump     
              Trump:     17,649    (49.6%)
              Misc:         1,672    (4.7%)
              Total:       35,589

8.) Canton- 2020

              Biden:       14,761   (59.1%)       +20.0% Biden    (+3.9% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:        9,759  (39.1%)
              Misc:             471  ( 1.4%)   
              Total:        24,991                     +0.6% from 2016 Total Votes

          Canton- 2016

              HRC:        14,740   (59.4%)       +23.9% HRC   
              Trump:       8,826   (35.5%)
              Misc:         1,267   (5.1%)
              Total:       24,833

9.) Youngstown- 2020

              Biden:       16,580  (73.4%)       +48.0% Biden    (+6.5% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:        5,733  (25.4%)
              Misc:             280  ( 1.2%)   
              Total:        22,593                     -7.2% from 2016 Total Votes

          Youngstown- 2016

              HRC:        18,499   (75.9%)       +54.5% HRC   
              Trump:       5,207   (21.4%)
              Misc:             656   (2.7%)
              Total:       24,362

10.) Lorain- 2020

              Biden:       14,922  (60.0%)       +21.5% Biden (+10.5% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:        9,567  (38.5%)
              Misc:             375 ( 1.2%)   
              Total:        24,864                    +4.6% from 2016 Total Votes

          Lorain- 2016

              HRC:        15,192  (63.9%)       +32.0% HRC   
              Trump:       7,584   (31.9%)
              Misc:             656   (2.8%)
              Total:       23,772

[NOVA Green]

^ Underdiscused but that Lorain swing was probably brought about by the Puerto Rican population of the city and (probably) flipped the county to Trump.

Interesting!!!

Welcome to the Forum cringenat btw!!!!

[NOVA Green]

Never knew Mercer Island was a bastion of "Starbucks 1%er" liberalism. I figured it used to vote Republican along with Bellevue and Sammamish. Do you think Eastside Desi voters swung R like they supposedly did nationally, even if only by 1%?

Isn't Mercer Island Seattle's "Jewish suburb"?  Though in the Seattle context that probably means like 10% - it's not exactly say Short Hills NJ or Beachwood OH. 

There certainly is a large Jewish presence on Mercer Island, although not sure about the %.

I've been out there with my Sister and her family because of a large selection of Kosher items at a few of the larger grocery stores out there.

[NOVA Green]

Can someone do Phoenix vs the rest of Maricopa County

I would like that too and also Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County.  For New York and California, they are pretty good of posting results by municipality so just waiting for them to be finalized.

I'll try to take a look at Phoenix when I get off work this evening.

Assuming nothing major changed, I should already have the precincts coded for Maricopa County.

[NOVA Green]

Can someone do Phoenix vs the rest of Maricopa County

I would like that too and also Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County.  For New York and California, they are pretty good of posting results by municipality so just waiting for them to be finalized.

I'll try to take a look at Phoenix when I get off work this evening.

Assuming nothing major changed, I should already have the precincts coded for Maricopa County.

So Maricopa is taking a bit longer than I was hoping....

The text file download is extremely messy, and although I have been working through manual data entry entries from the PDF, without even trying to code the (16) additional precincts added since '16.... flip side is:

Bad news, not gonna dump it tonight, and possibly not even Tomorrow because it is more labor intensive than I was hoping, and I have a few other items on my research project list for Atlas so tired from spending well over an hour literally entering missing data fields from the pivot table manually from the Maricopa County PDF.

Good news, I should be able to come up Maricopa County Precinct breakdowns for the GE-PRES likely at the latest Sunday.   

(I have my own selfish reasons for working on this project, so it is not mere "Atlas Altruism" crunching 2020 GE PRES numbers here to give some "goodies to the hoodies"   

[NOVA Green]

Maricopa County- 2020-

I will follow up shortly with some additional information, but here is something to start with:

Biden- 58.5%          +19.0% Biden     (+4.5% DEM SWING)
Trump- 39.5%

[NOVA Green]

So to follow-up on my Maricopa County 2020 Post:

1.) Methodology---- Municipal results (generally) include both precincts located 100% within City Limits as well as split-precincts.

The reason for inclusion of split-precincts is both practical as well as logical.

      A.) Practical--- Maricopa County has a TON of precincts which include both slivers of real estate outside of City incorporated limits, as well as sometimes larger chunks of what are primarily undeveloped desert tracts.

    B.) Logical---  Housing developers in Maricopa County will generally work to incorporate new housing developments into municipal boundaries, so that residents of these newer developments have access to City level hookups including water, sewage hookups, etc...

It is possible you might have some "Desert Rats" included within these split-precincts, or possibly some older smaller developments that do not want their property taxes to go up by being taxed for City Services, but I strongly suspect the bulk of the population in these precincts reside within the "City Limits" proper.

2.) Precinct Changes

     A.) Maricopa County added ~ (25) new precincts between the 2016 and 2020 PRES General Elections.

     B.) A large majority of these new precincts were located within Mesa as well as a couple in Gilbert and Queen Creek.

    C.) There are a (4) precincts which were removed between 2016 and 2020 GE:

         Barbados (Gilbert)
         Marbella  (Gilbert)
         Modoc     (Phoenix)
         Tempe     (Tempe)

Although I don't have a 2016 GE Precinct Map at my finger tips, it appears that the ones in Gilbert were reorganizing precinct lines for the new precincts, and the one from Tempe is likely the new "Sun Devil" precinct located on the Arizona State University (Will need to double-check).

       D.) Vast majority of 2016 to 2020 precinct changes appear to have been reorganization of existing precincts, as well as absorbing existing precincts in UNINC areas into Municipalities.

MORE TO COME:

[NOVA Green]

Maricopa County 2016 to 2020 GE Results by City (Compare & Contrast).



Looking pretty sweet for Biden overall...

1.) Phoenix--- converting a +52.1k HRC Raw Vote margin to a + 127.1k margin ( +75k '20 net gain in the City... goes directly to the bank).

2.) Mesa--- Republican stronghold doesn't flip, but still keeping Trump at barely above 10%, with a +6.4% D Swing, alone shaved 5k off of PUB vote margins in AZ compared to '16.

3.) Swings in Sun City and Sun City West, were astonishing, in what has been traditionally been considered the "Southern California Retiree Communities"...

4.) Swings in Tempe, were somewhat predictable with high % of 3rd Party Voting in '16.

5.) Numbers out of Gilbert, Peoria, Surprise, and Buckeye, start to become problematic for Republicans in Arizona going forward...

Stay tuned for more from NOVA GREEN underground Pirate Radio....

[NOVA Green]

Maricopa County:

(77) Precincts with +10% DEM Swings   ( I deleted a few with only a handful of voters)









Not to do a cliche, but "for each and every force there is an opposite reaction"

Precincts that swung towards Trump between '16 and '20:









I have not had a chance to data mine all of these numbers, but just skimming over the 2016 PRES data, it is clear that Trump improved his support in some of the most heavily Democratic Precincts of Maricopa County, at least on the margins.

[NOVA Green]

Jefferson County- 2020 PRES By City:



Jefferson County- 2017- US SEN- GE- Special Election:



Jefferson County- 2016 GE PRES By City:




@Mileslunn--- I'll see if I have easy precinct coding for Mobile County AL to quickly run the numbers off of, as you also requested elsewhere.

[NOVA Green]

Here's another take at Jefferson County Alabama--- compare / contrast swings and Total Votes between 2016 and 2020 US PRES GE results:

Mountain Brook numbers look odd....

[NOVA Green]

Here's another take at Jefferson County Alabama--- compare / contrast swings and Total Votes between 2016 and 2020 US PRES GE results:

Mountain Brook numbers look odd....

Yeah thats definitely an error for Mountain Brook

That was my initial thought because of the potentially counter-intuitive numbers.... but I went back and reviewed the '16 and '20 precinct numbers....

So here are the 2020 GE PRES Precinct results for Mountain Brook:



So here are the 2016 GE PRES precinct results for Mountain Brook:



I'm actually wondering if maybe the COVID-19 impact had folks in one of the wealthiest and most educated places in Alabama leave to 2nd homes away from Metro areas where they could work remotely....

Sure, not all wealthy Burb 2016 > 2020 swings are created equal, but the decrease in Total RAW GE PRES Votes stands out considerably in a higher than average TO election, even in Alabama...

Unless there is a County transcription error between these two elections, there aren't any suspiciously strange shifts in TV numbers between '16 and '20, plus it's not like Jefferson County has a bank of "Unassigned Absentee Voters"....

Maybe the 2020 "Provisional Voters" on the official report are all from Mountain Brook?

Doubtful, but....

[NOVA Green]

Here's another take at Jefferson County Alabama--- compare / contrast swings and Total Votes between 2016 and 2020 US PRES GE results:

Mountain Brook numbers look odd....

Are those numbers for Hoover just the Jefferson County side, or do they include Shelby County Hoover as well?  Vestavia Hills is also very similar to Mountain Brook, and it also swung Republican.  Hoover, on the other hand, is more of an upper-middle class (but less ultra-wealthy) community.  It seems to be showing swings more inline with other well-off Southern suburban areas.  I haven't looked at Belle Meade, TN yet, but I wonder if it also didn't swing left (it might be hard to get this because Davidson County doesn't allocate mail-in votes by precinct).  Maybe it's a case of the super wealthy in the South not budging, whereas the upper-middle class, growing suburbs did bleed a little support?

Precinct results by Municipality are Jefferson County Precincts only...

Despite my interest in Alabama Election results, was simply sharing results by a particular county as requested...

Believe I could grab Shelby County precinct results if requested, since I believed I ran some precinct numbers back in the Doug Jones AL-SEN SE days.

*** Mind throb *** might need to check out '12 / '16 precinct numbers if necessary.

Give me a day or more and will likely locate, plus bonus points from 2017 AL-SEN-SE, and even possibly 2020 GE-AL-SEN.
)
No guarantees, no promises, and anybody else want to beat me to the punch... props, work a job, gotta wife only so many times in my hands in this brief existence we call Life, but HELL YES (Insert obligatory Rebel Yell Song), precinct results from Shelby County should be extremely interesting...

[NOVA Green]

Wichita Kansas confirmed for Trump:



Here are the 2008 to 2020 numbers for the City GE PRES:



Here's the cross-post on largest Trump City thread:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411611.msg7828145#msg7828145

[NOVA Green]

There were only (13) / (156) precincts in Wichita which swung towards Trump:

Note: There are an additional (7) / (156) precincts which did not exist in the 2016 GE Election.



Of these (13) precincts, most are pretty small by Wichita precinct standards.

Precincts 113 and 114 stand out because of the size of the swings, and precinct 119 because of the number of total voters.

Note these are all overwhelmingly Democratic precincts...

These (3) precincts appear to overlap with Census Tract areas with a higher % of African-Americans than most parts of Wichita, but it is important to note that you have neighboring precincts which also appear to have a high population of Black Americans, which did not swing towards Trump, but instead had narrow Biden swings (Which makes sense for example if you are banking 91-92% of the vote (precincts 116 & 117 for example).

I haven't really taken a deep look at more heavily Latino precincts in Wichita, but in short they did not jump out on the list of "Trump Precinct Swings".

Overall it does not appear that there was any movement towards Trump in Black and Latino precincts in Wichita in 2020, and just like other precincts there was a significant increase in Total PRES votes between '16 and '20

[NOVA Green]

Here's another take at Jefferson County Alabama--- compare / contrast swings and Total Votes between 2016 and 2020 US PRES GE results:

Mountain Brook numbers look odd....

Are those numbers for Hoover just the Jefferson County side, or do they include Shelby County Hoover as well?  Vestavia Hills is also very similar to Mountain Brook, and it also swung Republican.  Hoover, on the other hand, is more of an upper-middle class (but less ultra-wealthy) community.  It seems to be showing swings more inline with other well-off Southern suburban areas.  I haven't looked at Belle Meade, TN yet, but I wonder if it also didn't swing left (it might be hard to get this because Davidson County doesn't allocate mail-in votes by precinct).  Maybe it's a case of the super wealthy in the South not budging, whereas the upper-middle class, growing suburbs did bleed a little support?

Hi Extreme Republican and apologies for my delayed response.

These numbers are Jefferson County precincts only.

I do have Shelby County precincts (Although I have not coded them by Municipality in the '16 GE, '17 AL-SEN-SE, nor the '20 GE).

Shelby County unfortunately bundles absentees into one bucket (Unlike Jefferson County), making precinct level returns sketch in the extreme....

If you want I can try to code the '16 and '20 GE PRES results for Shelby County by Municipality, but it is almost like a question I asked elsewhere RE:2020 GE results about trying to code Maine GE results "By Precinct /Ward" for the handful of larger Cities in that State....

Let me know, and will take a look if you are interested.

Unfortunately, Shelby County does one of my pet peeves when it comes to Election Reporting for many Counties throughout the US, and not redistributing votes back to the precinct level.