PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can only imagine if Republicans had nominated Reschenthaler and Bartos. They would be in a much better position. Even McCormick and Barletta would have a better chance of winning than Oz and Mastriano at this point.

Wasn't it mentioned earlier that Bartos's wife is fundraising for Shapiro?

Wasn't Bartos a NeverTrumper who ran for the Senate primary?

[Calthrina950]

I can only imagine if Republicans had nominated Reschenthaler and Bartos. They would be in a much better position. Even McCormick and Barletta would have a better chance of winning than Oz and Mastriano at this point.

Wasn't it mentioned earlier that Bartos's wife is fundraising for Shapiro?

I did read that, and it certainly highlights the "unfortunate" situation Pennsylvania Republicans find themselves in.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I can only imagine if Republicans had nominated Reschenthaler and Bartos. They would be in a much better position. Even McCormick and Barletta would have a better chance of winning than Oz and Mastriano at this point.

Wasn't it mentioned earlier that Bartos's wife is fundraising for Shapiro?

Wasn't Bartos a NeverTrumper who ran for the Senate primary?

Bartos's best performances were in suburban east PA, so presumably.

[wbrocks67]

When even Salina Zito is giving props to the D, you know it's bad for Mastriano/Rs...

https://twitter.com/DPearsonPHL/status/1574036680046166019

[sting in the rafters]

Some more Shapiro ads during the halftime of today's Eagles-Commies game. He did a nice job of painting Mast's radical positions on religion/climate change. Even more impressive he's at least apparently decoupled Mast from Trump in his attacks as Big T remains popular with the type of ancestral Appalachian Conservadems Shapiro retained in his Attorney General runs. Solid stuff.

[wbrocks67]

Some more Shapiro ads during the halftime of today's Eagles-Commies game. He did a nice job of painting Mast's radical positions on religion/climate change. Even more impressive he's at least apparently decoupled Mast from Trump in his attacks as Big T remains popular with the type of ancestral Appalachian Conservadems Shapiro retained in his Attorney General runs. Solid stuff.

Did you see any Oz/Fetterman ads during the game?

[Schiff for Senate]

Take a look at Shapiro's new ad. It's brutal. About the only thing it doesn't do is explicitly call Mastriano a Nazi.

Honestly, when it comes to a guy like Mastriano, the attack ads literally write themselves.

[Schiff for Senate]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

[Boobs]

I wonder what the consequences will be for the PA legislature, considering they have been redrawn to be fairer and more competitive this cycle. If turnout is lagging because of Oz/Mastriano then Democrats could actually have a shot at taking control, which would be the first time Democrats control the House since the election of 2008 or the Senate since 1978!

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder what the consequences will be for the PA legislature, considering they have been redrawn to be fairer and more competitive this cycle. If turnout is lagging because of Oz/Mastriano then Democrats could actually have a shot at taking control, which would be the first time Democrats control the House since the election of 2008 or the Senate since 1978!

I def think the PA Legislature has been underdiscussed.

The State Senate is slightly less competitive because several of the main Democratic pickups are not up. However, there def is still a narrow path for Dems as they'd have to win all the Biden seats plus 2 seats that were Trump + 0. Unlike Michigan though, we aren't seeing the same momentum or fundraising for these Dem State Senate candidates despite their districts being comparable in size.

For the State House, all the seats are up and Dems path in theory would be sweeping all the Biden seats, however, practically, the seats are all relativley small and we see several examples of pretty extreme ticket splitting due to local politics. For instance, Republican incumbent Todd Stephen seems favored to hold his Biden + 25 suburban Philly seat after an insane overperformance in 2020. On the flipside Frank Burns seems favored to hold his Trump + 29 seat based around Ebensburg. What's improtant though is that The Philly suburbs alone aren't going to be enough to give Dems the statehouse; they'll have to win competative races in places like Scranton, College Station, and Erie.

[wbrocks67]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

Well Wolf 2014 and 2018 are two different things. I definitely think it's possible for Shapiro to duplicate a margin like Wolf 2014, in fact it's what CBS/YouGov and Muhlenberg are looking like right now.

The rural margins will be interesting. Shapiro has been making it a point to go to red counties this entire cycle.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

Well Wolf 2014 and 2018 are two different things. I definitely think it's possible for Shapiro to duplicate a margin like Wolf 2014, in fact it's what CBS/YouGov and Muhlenberg are looking like right now.

The rural margins will be interesting. Shapiro has been making it a point to go to red counties this entire cycle.

Going to red counties is basically a feature of any Dem running serious campaign in a swing state. Now how genuine and invested that outreach is is really what matters, cause so many do it just for optics.

[wbrocks67]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

Well Wolf 2014 and 2018 are two different things. I definitely think it's possible for Shapiro to duplicate a margin like Wolf 2014, in fact it's what CBS/YouGov and Muhlenberg are looking like right now.

The rural margins will be interesting. Shapiro has been making it a point to go to red counties this entire cycle.

Going to red counties is basically a feature of any Dem running serious campaign in a swing state. Now how genuine and invested that outreach is is really what matters, cause so many do it just for optics.

The Salena Zito piece above basically shows how it's not just for optics.

[Calthrina950]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

Well Wolf 2014 and 2018 are two different things. I definitely think it's possible for Shapiro to duplicate a margin like Wolf 2014, in fact it's what CBS/YouGov and Muhlenberg are looking like right now.

The rural margins will be interesting. Shapiro has been making it a point to go to red counties this entire cycle.

Going to red counties is basically a feature of any Dem running serious campaign in a swing state. Now how genuine and invested that outreach is is really what matters, cause so many do it just for optics.

The Salena Zito piece above basically shows how it's not just for optics.

Overwhelmingly Republican areas aren't going to vote for Democratic candidates. They might have twenty or thirty years ago, but not now, in this highly polarized era. However, there is the hope that denting the Republican margins in those areas might help the Democratic nominee overall. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by utterly crushing Hillary Clinton in those very areas.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

Well Wolf 2014 and 2018 are two different things. I definitely think it's possible for Shapiro to duplicate a margin like Wolf 2014, in fact it's what CBS/YouGov and Muhlenberg are looking like right now.

The rural margins will be interesting. Shapiro has been making it a point to go to red counties this entire cycle.

Going to red counties is basically a feature of any Dem running serious campaign in a swing state. Now how genuine and invested that outreach is is really what matters, cause so many do it just for optics.

The Salena Zito piece above basically shows how it's not just for optics.

Overwhelmingly Republican areas aren't going to vote for Democratic candidates. They might have twenty or thirty years ago, but not now, in this highly polarized era. However, there is the hope that denting the Republican margins in those areas might help the Democratic nominee overall. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by utterly crushing Hillary Clinton in those very areas.

One annoying thing many Democrats say in writing off rural areas because they can't win them. Like yeah, that's out of reach, but shaving a couple percent off can make a difference. Republicans almost pulled that off in cities in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

Well Wolf 2014 and 2018 are two different things. I definitely think it's possible for Shapiro to duplicate a margin like Wolf 2014, in fact it's what CBS/YouGov and Muhlenberg are looking like right now.

The rural margins will be interesting. Shapiro has been making it a point to go to red counties this entire cycle.

Going to red counties is basically a feature of any Dem running serious campaign in a swing state. Now how genuine and invested that outreach is is really what matters, cause so many do it just for optics.

The Salena Zito piece above basically shows how it's not just for optics.

Overwhelmingly Republican areas aren't going to vote for Democratic candidates. They might have twenty or thirty years ago, but not now, in this highly polarized era. However, there is the hope that denting the Republican margins in those areas might help the Democratic nominee overall. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by utterly crushing Hillary Clinton in those very areas.

I'm not sure if there's a disconnect here, but I didn't say they would. My point, like the one above, is that Shapiro spending so much time in rural areas compared to the usual D candidate can help shave the margin. It's the reason why Shapiro has been able to do so well in the past.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

50 people show up to a Mastriano rally, 2,000 had been expected

That's gotta sting just a little. Damn.

[Calthrina950]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

Well Wolf 2014 and 2018 are two different things. I definitely think it's possible for Shapiro to duplicate a margin like Wolf 2014, in fact it's what CBS/YouGov and Muhlenberg are looking like right now.

The rural margins will be interesting. Shapiro has been making it a point to go to red counties this entire cycle.

Going to red counties is basically a feature of any Dem running serious campaign in a swing state. Now how genuine and invested that outreach is is really what matters, cause so many do it just for optics.

The Salena Zito piece above basically shows how it's not just for optics.

Overwhelmingly Republican areas aren't going to vote for Democratic candidates. They might have twenty or thirty years ago, but not now, in this highly polarized era. However, there is the hope that denting the Republican margins in those areas might help the Democratic nominee overall. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by utterly crushing Hillary Clinton in those very areas.

I'm not sure if there's a disconnect here, but I didn't say they would. My point, like the one above, is that Shapiro spending so much time in rural areas compared to the usual D candidate can help shave the margin. It's the reason why Shapiro has been able to do so well in the past.

There isn't a disconnect, as I am agreeing with you that he (and Fetterman) will need to hold down the margins in Republican areas, if only marginally, to win.

[wbrocks67]

For the Philly FOP to endorse Shapiro over Mastriano is.... striking

https://twitter.com/Laurenjmayk/status/1574410555514916864

[wbrocks67]

New NYT story - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/us/politics/doug-mastriano-campaign-pennsylvania.html

Intersting nuggets:

He is being heavily outspent by his Democratic rival, has had no television ads on the air since May, has chosen not to interact with the state’s news media in ways that would push his agenda, and trails by double digits in reputable public polling and most private surveys.

“I can’t even assess things because I don’t see a campaign,” said Matt Brouillette, the president of Commonwealth Partners Chamber of Entrepreneurs, an advocacy group that is a major player in Pennsylvania Republican politics. “I’ve not seen anything that is even a semblance of a campaign.”

Mr. Brouillette, who backed one of Mr. Mastriano’s rivals in the G.O.P. primary, added: “Now, maybe he knows something we don’t on how you can win in the fifth-largest state without doing TV or mail. But I guess we’re going to have to wait until Nov. 8 to see whether you can pull something like that off.”

[Pheurton Skeurto]

For the Philly FOP to endorse Shapiro over Mastriano is.... striking

https://twitter.com/Laurenjmayk/status/1574410555514916864

OOF. Stick a fork in Mastriano if he can't even rely on the Philly FOP...

[Senator Incitatus]

Mastriano has just absolutely no campaign. No network in the state, no friends in the party, no donors. Potentially a worse campaign than Wagner's. If he wins, it will be a minor miracle and he'll be set up very poorly to govern in 2023.

[Calthrina950]

Mastriano has just absolutely no campaign. No network in the state, no friends in the party, no donors. Potentially a worse campaign than Wagner's. If he wins, it will be a minor miracle and he'll be set up very poorly to govern in 2023.

It's certainly obvious now why Shapiro spent extensively to prop Mastriano up in the primary. He knew that Mastriano would be the weakest opponent that he could face this year. It's starting to look likely that we might see a split outcome in Pennsylvania. Oz still has a chance, but Mastriano's prospects are very poor at this point.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

National Republicans pretty much openly admitting that they're surrendering the race to Shapiro.

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1574426706680713217?s=20&t=UoiHzFJSgc...

[wbrocks67]

And, in a real-life Hail Mary, the cash-crunched PA GOP sold its Harrisburg HQ to the Catholic church next door for $750,000

This is a long time coming, the PA GOP has been a mess for a while now.