CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Adam Griffin]

Has Arrington's margin shrunk a bit?

Katie Arrington
27,505   51.3%   
Mark Sanford
24,592   45.8%
81% REPORTING

Doesn't look like the raw vote margin has, though, so Sanford's screwed in all likelihood; would need over 70% of likely outstanding ballots to close the gap. Not sure why it's not being called by NYT already.

[kph14]

Has Arrington's margin shrunk a bit?

Katie Arrington
27,505   51.3%   
Mark Sanford
24,592   45.8%
81% REPORTING

Doesn't look like the raw vote margin has, though, so Sanford's screwed in all likelihood; would need over 70% of likely outstanding ballots to close the gap. Not sure why it's not being called by NYT already.

I'd guess it is still possible that Arrington ends up with 49% of the vote

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So does this mean that Sanford can request political asylum in Argentina?

[Adam Griffin]

I can't believe there's still nothing in from Greenville...that has to be a considerable sum of what's left (along with Charleston).

GOP at 58.7% of ballots with 85% reporting, but I could see them getting real close (if not above) 60% once Greenville's counted.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So does this mean that Sanford can request political asylum in Argentina?

[Sestak]

Who are Olson voters likely to 2pref?

[ON Progressive]

So does this mean that Sanford can request political asylum in Argentina?

He could also become a professional Appalachian Trail hiker.

[YE]

Rosen at 80% in NV Sen. Also Dina Titus has won her primary 80-20. Sisolak is up early 50-33 but none of Clark for the statewide offices has reported.

[Adam Griffin]

Who are Olson voters likely to 2pref?

If the margins at present largely hold, it won't necessarily matter. Right now, Golden would need less than 10% of Olsen's voters to win. However, it wouldn't surprise me if there's a coin-toss distribution among his voters, giving potentially plenty of wiggle room to Golden.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Hardy vs Horsford rematch incoming.

[IceSpear]

Has Arrington's margin shrunk a bit?

Katie Arrington
27,505   51.3%   
Mark Sanford
24,592   45.8%
81% REPORTING

Doesn't look like the raw vote margin has, though, so Sanford's screwed in all likelihood; would need over 70% of likely outstanding ballots to close the gap. Not sure why it's not being called by NYT already.

It has. She was near 53% earlier. It's been clear for a while now she was going to finish ahead, but I think they're just being cautious in case she drops to 49.9999%.

[Gass3268]

Holy Nevada! Yes I know 2014 was awful.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1006732817479487488

[Virginiá]

Holy Nevada! Yes I know 2014 was awful.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1006732817479487488

Such high energy! Maybe NV Democrats can finally consolidate their grip on the state govt for the first time in a generation.

[Adam Griffin]

For those curious about primary ballot distribution in the current results available:

NV: 57.9% DEM
SC: 58.1% GOP
ME: 59.1% DEM

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - NV:

Governor
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Adam Laxalt
29,546   68.3%   
Dan Schwartz
4,393   10.1   
Bill Boyd
2,362   5.5   
Jared Fisher
2,295   5.3   
Stephanie Carlisle
2,080   4.8   
None of these candidates
1,732   4.0   
Stan Lusak
360   0.8   
Frederick Conquest
317   0.7   
Edward Dundas
203   0.5   
43,288 votes, 33% reporting (663 of 1,989 precincts)

U.S. House District 1

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Dina Titus*
12,340   81.0%   
Reuben D'Silva
2,896   19.0   
15,236 votes, 35% reporting (108 of 309 precincts)

Lieutenant Governor

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kate Marshall
37,064   64.3%   
Laurie Hansen
14,462   25.1   
None of these candidates
6,094   10.6   
57,620 votes, 33% reporting (663 of 1,989 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Michael Roberson
21,605   51.5%   
Brent Jones
7,298   17.4   
None of these candidates
4,270   10.2   
Eugene Hoover
3,537   8.4   
Gary Meyers
2,879   6.9   
Scott LaFata
2,333   5.6   
41,922 votes, 33% reporting (663 of 1,989 precincts)

Attorney General

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Aaron Ford
39,630   68.6%   
Stuart MacKie
11,209   19.4   
None of these candidates
6,949   12.0   
57,788 votes, 33% reporting (663 of 1,989 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Wes Duncan
25,915   61.7%   
Craig Mueller
13,003   31.0   
None of these candidates
3,077   7.3   
41,995 votes, 33% reporting (663 of 1,989 precincts)

Secretary of State
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Barbara Cegavske*
27,573   66.3%   
Ernest Aldridge
10,444   25.1   
None of these candidates
3,592   8.6   
41,609 votes, 33% reporting (663 of 1,989 precincts)

Treasurer
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Bob Beers
28,251   67.3%   
Derek Uehara
10,920   26.0   
None of these candidates
2,814   6.7   
41,985 votes, 33% reporting (663 of 1,989 precincts)

[136or142]

The percentages have not changed with another 8% of precincts reporting

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
49.3%   Jared Golden   8,985   
41.4%   Lucas St. Clair   7,538   
9.4%   Craig Olson   1,705   
44.3% of precincts reporting (185/418)
18,228 total votes

[Nyvin]

So is Tarkanian actually going to be the NV-3 R candidate or is this just early numbers BS?

[Adam Griffin]

Has Arrington's margin shrunk a bit?

Katie Arrington
27,505   51.3%   
Mark Sanford
24,592   45.8%
81% REPORTING

Doesn't look like the raw vote margin has, though, so Sanford's screwed in all likelihood; would need over 70% of likely outstanding ballots to close the gap. Not sure why it's not being called by NYT already.

It has. She was near 53% earlier. It's been clear for a while now she was going to finish ahead, but I think they're just being cautious in case she drops to 49.9999%.

Oh, duh: I keep forgetting this is a runoff contest.

[YE]

So is Tarkanian actually going to be the NV-3 R candidate or is this just early numbers BS?

I expected him to win. He's really good at winning GOP primaries and losing GEs, has high name ID, and raises a lot of money.

[136or142]

Shrunk a bit more but she may be able to run out the clock


Republican Primary
Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
51.2%   Katie Arrington   28,597   
46%   Mark Sanford*   25,673   
2.9%   Dimitri Cherny   1,599   
85.6% of precincts reporting (302/353)   *Incumbent
55,869 total votes

[Thunder98]

Holy Nevada! Yes I know 2014 was awful.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1006732817479487488

What would that mean for NV’s Senate ace in November? If that holds, I’m moving it to likely Rosen

[Tintrlvr]

So is Tarkanian actually going to be the NV-3 R candidate or is this just early numbers BS?

It's 50% reporting and he's up by 17 points.

[136or142]

Golden over 50%

52.7%   Jared Golden   11,034   
38.5%   Lucas St. Clair   8,071   
8.8%   Craig Olson   1,840   
46.9% of precincts reporting (196/418)
20,945 total votes

[Nyvin]

Sanford concedes: 

https://twitter.com/MaryCaitlinByrd/status/1006728609657245701

[YE]

Holy Nevada! Yes I know 2014 was awful.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1006732817479487488

Such high energy! Maybe NV Democrats can finally consolidate their grip on the state govt for the first time in a generation.

2014 basically had no Democratic governor primary and Dem turnout was historically bad in both the primary and GE. 2010 would be a better comparison here.