Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

Where is the Palin bump that we were told we would see?

Here is poll from about two weeks ago, before the choice of Biden and the DNC:

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

Over all that time, Obama has gained 1 point, after what amounted to a major offensive.

[Lunar]

It's dangerous to view poll results as one-dimensional, or even two-dimensional.  Only when there is a single huge event (and no counteracting event) and a massive switch in poll numbers can we conclusively guess at the causation.

I've noticed "Oh, opposing X candidate should be this higher, but in this poll he is less than that so he should be worried!" comments by both sides.  That is called massive spin and should be frowned upon except in exceptional circumstances, none of which have occurred.  If anyone ever finds themselves making this argument, you're probably wrong and cherry-picking data.

I'm not trying to spin things for Obama.  I don't think he's in a great position right now and I don't see a great adeptness at handling the Palin pick.  I'm just saying, it's ridiculouso to take a single pollster's daily numbers and try and turn them into something analytical except when it's unquestionable obvious (Obama's spike during the convention).

Political views of easily influenced voters are complex and hard to discern, and the polling data itself is complex and hard to discern.  I mean, we take stabs here and there, but to try and reach broad conclusions this early on is just silly.  I know it makes me sound pro-Obama here, but I've recently seen arguments that McCain should be significantly further ahead on this forum than he is currently posting in the daily tracking.  Why are we so prone to mimicking campaigns' own low-expectations game here on this forum?  "I may be down 7, but I should be down 12, so this is actually looking pretty good!" 

Take the numbers, digest them, but no need to turn them into something that they aren't and compare them to imaginary numbers as to what they should be.

[J. J.]

.  I know it makes me sound pro-Obama here, but I've recently seen arguments that McCain should be significantly further ahead on this forum than he is currently posting in the daily tracking.  Why are we so prone to mimicking campaigns' own low-expectations game here on this forum? 

If you said two weeks ago that on September 1, Obama would only be ahead by three on Rasmussen, all polls were showing either a decline or stability for Obama, and that after he made his VP pick, his numbers would drop, I would have said you said you were completely insane.

[Tender Branson]

Compared with the Rasmussen Weekly Tracking Poll from exactly 4 years ago, the numbers are completely reversed:

Week ending Sept. 2, 2004:

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 46%

Today:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers

[Lief 🗽]

Had the RNC already happened by this point in 2004?

[Alcon]

Had the RNC already happened by this point in 2004?

September 2nd was the last day of the RNC in 2004.

[J. J.]

Compared with the Rasmussen Weekly Tracking Poll from exactly 4 years ago, the numbers are completely reversed:

Week ending Sept. 2, 2004:

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 46%

Today:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers

Republicans had, well, had mostly completed, their convention by that point.

[Alcon]

Compared with the Rasmussen Weekly Tracking Poll from exactly 4 years ago, the numbers are completely reversed:

Week ending Sept. 2, 2004:

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 46%

Today:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers

Republicans had, well, had mostly completed, their convention by that point.

Not that it really matters much.  2004 was an incredibly galvanized year--results ranged from Bush +2.8 to Kerry +2.8.  Bumps, all movements, were smaller.

[Tender Branson]

Compared with the Rasmussen Weekly Tracking Poll from exactly 4 years ago, the numbers are completely reversed:

Week ending Sept. 2, 2004:

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 46%

Today:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers

Republicans had, well, had mostly completed, their convention by that point.

Not that it really matters much.  2004 was an incredibly galvanized year--results ranged from Bush +2.8 to Kerry +2.8.  Bumps, all movements, were smaller.

No, Bush+16 actually - but let me come back to this in about 2-3 weeks when a post-convention comparison with 2004 makes more sense.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html (scroll down to bottom)

[J. J.]

Compared with the Rasmussen Weekly Tracking Poll from exactly 4 years ago, the numbers are completely reversed:

Week ending Sept. 2, 2004:

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 46%

Today:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers

Republicans had, well, had mostly completed, their convention by that point.

Not that it really matters much.  2004 was an incredibly galvanized year--results ranged from Bush +2.8 to Kerry +2.8.  Bumps, all movements, were smaller.

No, Bush+16 actually - but let me come back to this in about 2-3 weeks when a post-convention comparison with 2004 makes more sense.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html (scroll down to bottom)

First, you are citing what looks like an outlier. 

Second, you are talking different poll comparison.

Third, you are looking at a post convention bump after both convention.

Kerry, the Monday after his speech, or Gore the Monday after his speech, would be a more apt comparison.

[cannonia]

Tuesday - September 02, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 51%, including leaners (+1, +2)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (-1, -1)

[Iosif]

I see the Palin bounce has kicked in.

[Sam Spade]

Damn, I was going to post that!  It's either the Palin *bump* or polling on Labor Day phenomenon.  Your choose.  

[Josh/Devilman88]

Tuesday - September 02, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 51%, including leaners (+1, +2)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (-1, -1)

Man, at first it looked like the Palin pick was a smart move, but now it seems like it has back fired on McCain.

[Wiz in Wis]

Damn, I was going to post that!  It's either the Palin *bump* or polling on Labor Day phenomenon.  Your choose.  

Gustav?

[Sam Spade]

Damn, I was going to post that!  It's either the Palin *bump* or polling on Labor Day phenomenon.  Your choose.  

Gustav?

Well, that could be included as well.  In this case, I'm merely giving two quite reasonable explanations for the result that support both sides' cases.  In support of the latter argument, I might have hazarded a guess that Rasmussen wouldn't have polled yesterday (neither he nor Gallup polled July 4 or Memorial Day either).

In truth, you have to wait until the sample comes out because based on my guesses the previous two day's samples were roughly even at about O+3, with Friday's sample being about O+6.  This sample would have to be O+11 or 12 or so.

[Verily]

Damn, I was going to post that!  It's either the Palin *bump* or polling on Labor Day phenomenon.  Your choose.  

Probably a combination. If it were just Labor Day, it would have shown up in the weekend polling data, too. (People don't go on vacation for Labor Day, they go on vacation for the whole weekend.)

[Lief 🗽]

Is the first time Obama's been above 50% in the Rasmussen tracking?

lolpalin

[J. J.]

Damn, I was going to post that!  It's either the Palin *bump* or polling on Labor Day phenomenon.  Your choose.  

It's too early to deal with Bristol's pregnancy.  That didn't really hit to midday yesterday.

[Lief 🗽]

Rasmussen polls in the evening (as far as I know).

[J. J.]

Rasmussen polls in the evening (as far as I know).

And it takes a while for for the news to trickle down.  My landlord is fascinated by politics.  I spoke to him Sunday afternoon.  He knew the polling from the day before, but I was able to tell him everything that happened that morning.

It takes a while to trickle through to the voter, or poll responder.

[J. J.]

While there isn't a weekend Obama bounce in Rasmussen, there might have been something related to Gustav.  You had 4 Republican states (probably close to 10% of the US population) where there was a lot evacuations due to to Gustav; that alone could account for it.

[Brittain33]

While there isn't a weekend Obama bounce in Rasmussen, there might have been something related to Gustav.  You had 4 Republican states (probably close to 10% of the US population) where there was a lot evacuations due to to Gustav; that alone could account for it.

I doubt more than 1% of the country's population (3 million) evacuated their homes, and certainly no more than 2%.

[ChrisFromNJ]

While there isn't a weekend Obama bounce in Rasmussen, there might have been something related to Gustav.  You had 4 Republican states (probably close to 10% of the US population) where there was a lot evacuations due to to Gustav; that alone could account for it.

You're reaching


--------------------------------------------------------------> This far.

[riceowl]

4?  what Florida evacuations?  and AL, MS, and LA combined do not make up even 4% of the US population...