Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 30,299
Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91
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« on: October 12, 2020, 01:47:59 PM » |
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Probably not by more than 3 points or so, given straight-ticket voting, but if the election is closer than expected, that could be enough to cause a Biden/James split. I don't buy that James can win if Biden is winning Michigan by mid-high single digits, though.
It's kind of funny, some Republicans insist that Peters will overperform Biden by a significant margin while Tillis can't possibly underperform Trump, not by more than a fraction of a percent, and Democrats insist (or at least use to insist) the exact opposite. I guess for some, incumbents can only underperform the top of the ticket when they personally want the incumbent to, and ticket-splitting only happens in a way that said poster personally likes.
My current Michigan prediction is Biden +6 and Peters +4, both Lean D, the former closer to Likely D and the latter closer to Tilt D.
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