2012 Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Portman back in the lead.

Winning party

Dems 59.6
GOP 40.1
other 0.4

GOP VP nominee

Portman 28.0
Pawlenty 25.7
Rubio 8.2
Jindal 6.0
Rice 5.4
Thune 5.4
Ryan 4.5
Ayotte 2.4
McDonnell 1.9
McMorris-Rodgers 1.3
Christie 1.1
Daniels 0.9

[Mr. Morden]

Winning individual

Obama 56.9
Romney 40.6
Paul 1.3
Clinton 0.5
Huckabee 0.5
Santorum 0.3
Johnson 0.2

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 96.4
Paul 1.2
Huckabee 0.7
Santorum 0.7
J. Bush 0.4

GOP VP nominee

Portman 29.5
Pawlenty 24.6
Rubio 9.1
Thune 7.1
Rice 5.5
Jindal 5.2
McDonnell 5.0
Ryan 3.4
Ayotte 2.2
Christie 1.4
Martinez 0.7
McMorris-Rodgers 0.7

Dem. presidential nominee

Obama 98.0
H. Clinton 1.5
Biden 0.3

Dem. VP nominee

Biden 94.1
H. Clinton 3.4
B. Clinton 2.0

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Portman, Rubio, Thune, Ryan
Down: Jindal, Rice

Portman 30.5
Pawlenty 24.2
Rubio 10.9
Thune 8.9
Ryan 4.6
McDonnell 4.5
Jindal 4.1
Rice 3.5
Ayotte 2.0
Hutchison 1.2

Four years ago at about this time, these were the top tens for each party:

Dems

Bayh 33.0
Kaine 22.7
Sebelius 15.3
Biden 9.5
Clinton 5.9
Lee Hamilton 5.0
Nunn 4.0
Reed 4.0
Zinni 4.0
Rendell 3.5

GOP

Romney 35.0
Pawlenty 15.2
Cantor 15.0
Palin 12.0
Crist 10.0
Ridge 5.0
Giuliani 4.6
Huckabee 4.4
Jindal 4.1
Portman 4.0

[Phony Moderate]

So it'll be Thune then?

[Mr. Morden]

Ryan back up to 4th place in the veep rankings.

Up: Ryan, McDonnell
Down: Pawlenty, Rubio, Thune

Portman 31.3
Pawlenty 23.1
Rubio 9.5
Ryan 7.8
Thune 7.1
McDonnell 6.2
Jindal 3.5
Rice 3.0
Christie 2.0
Ayotte 1.8

[pepper11]

Christie getting new buzz at national review.

[RogueBeaver]

Christie getting new buzz at national review.

You mean The Weekly Standard. Kristol's a huge Christie fan.

[California8429]

What were the rankings at this time in 08?

[Mr. Morden]

Petraeus rises from the dead due to a Drudge rumor.  Ryan's share price has tripled in the last two weeks.  Pawlenty sinks below 20 for the first time in quite a while.  Portman holding steady at about 30.

Up: Rubio, Ryan, Petraeus
Down: Pawlenty, Thune, McDonnell, Rice

Portman 30.5
Pawlenty 18.0
Rubio 10.9
Ryan 10.0
Thune 6.0
McDonnell 4.0
Jindal 3.8
Christie 2.6
Petraeus 2.0
Rice 2.0

Four years ago today, this was the top 10 for each party:

Bayh 27.5
Kaine 16.2
Sebelius 15.0
Biden 11.0
Clinton 8.8
Gephardt 8.6
Hagel 6.0
Clark 5.1
Schweitzer 4.0
Rendell 3.5

Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 20.0
Ridge 15.0
Palin 14.0
Cantor 11.0
Crist 6.0
Jindal 5.2
Giuliani 5.0
Huckabee 4.0
Portman 4.0

[RogueBeaver]

Right on target.

[California8429]

Right on target.

lol It would be hilarious if 3/3 it were the 4th person

[Mr. Morden]

Big surge for Paul Ryan, who's now up to second place in the veepstakes.  Also, there are still a few diehards who have doubts about whether Obama and Romney will win their respective parties' presidential nominations.

Winning party

Dems 58.7
GOP 41.0
other 0.3

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 96.8
Paul 1.4
Huckabee 1.0

GOP VP nominee

Portman 29.4
Ryan 23.0
Pawlenty 18.0
Rubio 9.7
McDonnell 3.5
Thune 3.1
Christie 2.9
Jindal 2.8
Rice 1.7
Ayotte 1.1

Dem. presidential nominee

Obama 98.2
H. Clinton 1.1
BIden 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

Ryan now the heavy favorite, with Portman second, and everyone else way behind:

Ryan 75.0
Portman 27.0
Pawlenty 5.0
McDonnell 4.3
Rubio 3.9
Jindal 1.9
Christie 1.1
Rice 0.7

In the final ~24 hours before the Dem. VP pick in 2008, we had:

Update:

Biden 49.8
Bayh 35.0
Clinton 10.0
C. Edwards 10.0
Gore 8.7
Clark 8.0
Kaine 7.6
Reed 7.0
Sebelius 6.0
Bill Nelson 5.0

And just before the GOP VP pick in 2008:

Romney 58.0
Pawlenty 29.5
Hutchison 9.0
Lieberman 9.0
M. Whitman 6.5
Brownback 5.0
C. Todd-Whitman 4.9
Palin 4.5
Cantor 4.0
Huckabee 3.1

[Mr. Morden]

Update:

Ryan 90.0
Rubio 1.3
Pawlenty 1.0
McDonnell 0.9
Portman 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

No meaningful change on "winning party".  The betting markets don't think the choice of Ryan actually changes Romney's odds of winning one way or the other.

Winning party
Dems 59.0
GOP 41.4
other 0.4

GOP presidential nominee
Romney 95.5

GOP VP nominee
Ryan 95.0

Dem. presidential nominee
Obama 97.8

Dem. VP nominee
Biden 94.5

Yes, Ryan's now given a better chance of being on his party's ticket than Biden.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

GOP VP nominee
Ryan 95.0

Dem. VP nominee
Biden 94.5

Yes, Ryan's now given a better chance of being on his party's ticket than Biden.

Ryan's in better health and the GOP convention is sooner, so there's less chance of something going wrong.

[Mr. Morden]

GOP VP nominee
Ryan 95.0

Dem. VP nominee
Biden 94.5

Yes, Ryan's now given a better chance of being on his party's ticket than Biden.

Ryan's in better health and the GOP convention is sooner, so there's less chance of something going wrong.

I just thought it was amusing because while the pick had been leaked to the press, Romney still hadn't made the announcement officially at the time I posted that, and there were still people here on Atlas who didn't believe it.

Anyway, update:

winning party
Dems 56.8
GOP 42.9
other 0.2

GOP presidential nominee
Romney 98.0
Ron Paul 1.0

GOP VP nominee
Ryan 97.2
Rand Paul 2.0

Dem. presidential nominee
Obama 98.0
Clinton 0.8

Dem. VP nominee
Biden 94.0
Clinton 6.5

[LiberalJunkie]

Obama now over 60%.

Winning Individual

Obama 61.3%
Romney 38.7%

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Romney's Libya gaffe seems to have cost him about 6 points on intrade.

[Likely Voter]

Obama is approaching his all-time high (a one day jump the day after bin Laden). Romney has hit his lowest point since March (before he secured nomination).

Obama 67.3
Romney 33.3

[LiberalJunkie]

Winning Individual

Obama 71.8%
Romney 28.2%

[J. J.]

Winning Individual

Obama 71.8%
Romney 28.2%

Buy Romney. 

[tmthforu94]

Winning Individual

Obama 71.8%
Romney 28.2%

Buy Romney. 

I would agree. I'm sure it'll get closer before election day.

[Likely Voter]

Obama  75.2%
Romney 24.5%


Obama up to another lifetime high. Romney is at his lowest point of 2012, down to where he was back in November 2011 when Gingrich was surging (for the first time).

For comparison, Todd Akin is priced at 40%

[LiberalJunkie]

Obama  75.2%
Romney 24.5%


Obama up to another lifetime high. Romney is at his lowest point of 2012, down to where he was back in November 2011 when Gingrich was surging (for the first time).

For comparison, Todd Akin is priced at 40%

Lol when you are below Todd Akin your introuble.