Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[BudgieForce]

Credit were credit is due Icespear called this dead to rights

The election hasnt actually happend yet.

[BudgieForce]

Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Yeah, that might actually hurt Jones in most parts of Alabama.

[BudgieForce]

Oh...so Limoliberal really is a troll. I just thought he needed a Xanax or something.

[BudgieForce]

Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

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Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

[BudgieForce]

Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

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Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

About freaking out over turnout reports.

[BudgieForce]

Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

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Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

About freaking out over turnout reports.

We're reaching peak atlas once again

It happens every damn time.

[BudgieForce]

Limestone county on pace for 40% turnout

https://t.co/msdK042e8V

Not what the article actually says:

Probate Judge Charles Woodroof said he and Limestone County Sheriff Mike Blakely had visited about half the county's 25 precincts by lunch today. Woodroof believes the turnout is at least 30 percent and could be closer to 35.

“If we have a good late afternoon push, we could hit 40 percent,” he said. “That's pretty good for a two-person ballot.”

He's making some bold assumptions when he says turnout could hit 40%.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Is Baldwin considered R or D leaning?

Trump received 77% last November

!!

What are the chances Russell is right??

We wont know untill results come in.

[BudgieForce]

There is reportedly very nice weather in 'Bama so no "Rain in NoVa" panic posts necessary.

I feel like we should make shirts saying: "I survived the Rain in NoVa"

Didnt stop LimoLiberal from trying.

[BudgieForce]

Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?

Has anyone ever paid close enough attention to an Alabama race to know this?

The last competitive statewide election in Alabama seems to have been all the way back in 2002 so we're more or less going in blind.

[BudgieForce]

Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?

Has anyone ever paid close enough attention to an Alabama race to know this?

The last competitive statewide election in Alabama seems to have been all the way back in 2002 so we're more or less going in blind.

Erm, no, not really.

Dem. Lt.G. Jim Folsom Jr. won with 50.61% of the vote in 2006, and now-Gov. Kay Ivey only beat him with 51.47% of the vote in 2010.

Oh, okay. Lets use that as a bench mark then.

[BudgieForce]

FWIW, predictit seems unimpressed by all the turnout reports on twitter

The prices are virtually the same as they were this morning, with moore actually 1 cent higher

Well Im unimpressed by predictit so...

[BudgieForce]

I wonder who's feeling more confident. Fox or Emerson?

Emerson probably doesn't give two craps about how accurate they are.

[BudgieForce]

The close Lt. Governor race makes me a little hopeful enough republicans are willing to cross over.

[BudgieForce]

One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

Thats probably really bad for Moore?

[BudgieForce]

This looks like a narrow Jones victory...

TBH, it doesnt look like anything right now.

[BudgieForce]

Thats not bad if true.

[BudgieForce]

Moore campaign rn...

Dont jinx it dude.

[BudgieForce]

CNN: 55% unfavorable opinion of Roy Moore

Oh wow...

[BudgieForce]

I mean, the Virginia exit polls scewed right so who knows.

[BudgieForce]

40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.

40% pro-choice in ALABAMA??

WITFIGO???

I meant to say 54% are pro-choice. Poor wording

You should fix that.

[BudgieForce]

Conventional wisdom tells us Moore should have no issue winning this race.
Though for some reason, it feels like there's more at stake here than say, GA-06.

The stakes are unbelievably higher. Ossoff winning would have been a symbolic victory. Jones winning is the death of the tax bill and a much easier 2018 map.

Dont get ahead of yourself there. Republicans can very well rush the tax bill before Strange leaves.

[BudgieForce]

I really hope these exit polls are accurate.

[BudgieForce]

“The Democrats are back, baby!” - some poor sap’s wishful thinking.

"Yo soy Tim Kaine"

[BudgieForce]

Very anecdotal: Optimist Park in Huntsville is going to hit 50% turnout. Voted for Trump 2/1
https://mobile.twitter.com/davidknews/status/940720369777946624

Clinton was a really bad fit for Alabama.