TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[IceSpear]

I think you are whistling by the graveyard. 

Could be wrong, but I think it is more a case of "this Blue Dog don't hunt no more."

I don't see a whole lot of difference here as compared to, for example, TN-04 in 2010. Which had nothing to do with Kavanaugh... And everything to do with Partisanship...

Lincoln Davis, the Dem incumbent, was a good ole boy Blue Dog who all the rural folk in middle Tenessee were very happy with... until they weren't...

Here is a funny quote from a newspaper article at the time:

http://archive.knoxnews.com/news/4th-district-house-candidates-get-dirty-television-ads-from-outside-interest-groups-heat-up-davis-d--358412541.html/

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This article is from October 19... Yes, later in October than we are currently...

The final actual margin was not even remotely "somewhere in between." It was an a 57.1% - 38.6% ruralstomping. And he was a good ole boy even up to mid-October!!!

What happened? Partisanship, the same thing that is happening in TN now.

Great post.

This post/article should be required reading for anyone freaking out over House race polls that are within the margin of error and go heavily against the conventional wisdom about the district's partisanship (two examples off the top of my head, FL-27 and WV-03.)

[SCNCmod]

Bredesen needs to cut some good ads on pre-existing conditions... especially if he can find any footage of Blackburn wavering on or not requiring pre-existing condition protection.  This seem to be the one issue that for some ... takes favor over MAGA.  If the race tightens again- and he can peel off 2% via healthcare policy (this would dissolve a 4pt margin in the polls).

Also- this is a prime race where negative ads could be effective.  Bredesen is a known and well like name in TN... Many are less familiar with Blackburn- which means there is an opening to define her in a way that makes some voters weary of her. (and there is a lot to work with with Blackburn- just dig up some of her crazier moments/ comments).  Plenty of Moderate Republicans have always seen Blackburn as too far out there in Hack-land... Bredesen needs to illustrate this to those less familiar with her.

A popular 2 term Governor (who has led in polls much of the this race) running against Marsha Blackburn... I find it hard to believe that even in TN, Blackburn is not beatable (It just requires Bredesen campaign to turn it up a notch and run a savvy campaign the remaining 3 weeks). Show some energy, make enough people doubt Blackburn, and highlight 1 or 2 issues that Dems still hold the popular ground on (like pre-existing conditions).

[Blair]

Bredesen needs to cut some good ads on pre-existing conditions... especially if he can find any footage of Blackburn wavering on or not requiring pre-existing condition protection.  This seem to be the one issue that for some ... takes favor over MAGA.  If the race tightens again- and he can peel off 2% via healthcare policy (this would dissolve a 4pt margin in the polls).

Also- this is a prime race where negative ads could be effective.  Bredesen is a known and well like name in TN... Many are less familiar with Blackburn- which means there is an opening to define her in a way that makes some voters weary of her. (and there is a lot to work with with Blackburn- just dig up some of her crazier moments/ comments).  Plenty of Moderate Republicans have always seen Blackburn as too far out there in Hack-land... Bredesen needs to illustrate this to those less familiar with her.

A popular 2 term Governor (who has led in polls much of the this race) running against Marsha Blackburn... I find it hard to believe that even in TN, Blackburn is not beatable (It just requires Bredesen campaign to turn it up a notch and run a savvy campaign the remaining 3 weeks). Show some energy, make enough people doubt Blackburn, and highlight 1 or 2 issues that Dems still hold the popular ground on (like pre-existing conditions).

It's way too late in the cycle for this- and in all fairness the last paragraph pretty much sums up what Bredesen had done

[Technocracy Timmy]

Just like how Ron Johnson was DOA, Anthony Brown was going to easily be elected governor, and Mark Warner was totally safe. Blackburn is still favored, but an upset is still very possible.

Given the RCP trend, the only upset on November will be you crying when Tennessee deplorables elect Marsha handedly.

[ON Progressive]

With Heidi heading for defeat and Beto’s chances of winning getting slimmer by the day, TN is probably the Dem’s best shot at the 51st seat now.

TN isn't happening.

Just like how Ron Johnson was DOA, Anthony Brown was going to easily be elected governor, and Mark Warner was totally safe. Blackburn is still favored, but an upset is still very possible.

Ron Johnson was never DOA like people claimed. There were polls showing him only barely behind in the final week.

Anthony Brown was running for governor, and those type of races tend to be much less polarized than federal races. Especially true in a state like MD where the legislature will never be Republican.

Mark Warner was running in a Virginia that wasn't quite blue yet (indeed, Virginia's blue trend isn't exactly complete yet), and the key flaw with your argument there is: he still won.

Bredesen has to run in a deeply Republican state that hasn't elected Democrats to anything federally in an eternity with an electorate that probably doesn't know him as much as they would've if he ran before 2018. He was last elected over a decade ago, so lots of his voters have died or moved out of state while they get replaced by people who don't even remember his governorship.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/11/bredesen-backlash-kavanaugh-support-894393

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[Calthrina950]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/11/bredesen-backlash-kavanaugh-support-894393

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Bredesen is done for at this point, so this is just another bad sign of how things have developed in Tennessee.

[freepcrusher]

what I don't get is - don't senate races start to break to the "out party" in october? Yes, Tennessee is a GOP state, but the democrats are the out party. This is what happened in the polls in 2014. Like even in a blue district like IL-10, Dold surprised people by reclaiming his seat.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Honestly, there's an upside to Bredesen losing big as it seems he will. It's a great lesson for """MODERATE""" democrats who think they can win by acting like Republicans, that they're gonna pay a price for it. The base will only stick with you up to a point.

[UWS]

Honestly, there's an upside to Bredesen losing big as it seems he will. It's a great lesson for """MODERATE""" democrats who think they can win by acting like Republicans, that they're gonna pay a price for it. The base will only stick with you up to a point.

They would surely not have won with a Bernie Sanders like candidate either in Tennessee.

[SCNCmod]

How do Bredesen & Blackburn compare regarding their social media strategies... esp Facebook?  (not necessarily who has the most there... but how effective are each of the campaigns efforts)

[Blair]

Honestly, there's an upside to Bredesen losing big as it seems he will. It's a great lesson for """MODERATE""" democrats who think they can win by acting like Republicans, that they're gonna pay a price for it. The base will only stick with you up to a point.

They would surely not have won with a Bernie Sanders like candidate either in Tennessee.

People aren’t generally calling for a Bernie Sanders type candiate.

It always annoys me when people call out moderates such as Bredesen as being useless politicians, only to be told ‘oh so you want Sanders people running then’.

It’s not Bredesen ideology that annoys me- it’s his lack of political courage, and his complete lack of authenticity

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Honestly, there's an upside to Bredesen losing big as it seems he will. It's a great lesson for """MODERATE""" democrats who think they can win by acting like Republicans, that they're gonna pay a price for it. The base will only stick with you up to a point.

They would surely not have won with a Bernie Sanders like candidate either in Tennessee.

People aren’t generally calling for a Bernie Sanders type candiate.

It always annoys me when people call out moderates such as Bredesen as being useless politicians, only to be told ‘oh so you want Sanders people running then’.

It’s not Bredesen ideology that annoys me- it’s his lack of political courage, and his complete lack of authenticity

Yeah, there’s a reason everyone hated Evan Bayh, but you never really hear the base complaining about Joe Donnelly.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Honestly, there's an upside to Bredesen losing big as it seems he will. It's a great lesson for """MODERATE""" democrats who think they can win by acting like Republicans, that they're gonna pay a price for it. The base will only stick with you up to a point.

They would surely not have won with a Bernie Sanders like candidate either in Tennessee.

People aren’t generally calling for a Bernie Sanders type candiate.

It always annoys me when people call out moderates such as Bredesen as being useless politicians, only to be told ‘oh so you want Sanders people running then’.

It’s not Bredesen ideology that annoys me- it’s his lack of political courage, and his complete lack of authenticity

Yeah, there’s a reason everyone hated Evan Bayh, but you never really hear the base complaining about Joe Donnelly.

The Democrats are in the minority these days, and badly so, because they've lost sight of the fact that, in many instances, half a Democrat is better than no Democrat at all.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Honestly, there's an upside to Bredesen losing big as it seems he will. It's a great lesson for """MODERATE""" democrats who think they can win by acting like Republicans, that they're gonna pay a price for it. The base will only stick with you up to a point.

They would surely not have won with a Bernie Sanders like candidate either in Tennessee.

People aren’t generally calling for a Bernie Sanders type candiate.

It always annoys me when people call out moderates such as Bredesen as being useless politicians, only to be told ‘oh so you want Sanders people running then’.

It’s not Bredesen ideology that annoys me- it’s his lack of political courage, and his complete lack of authenticity

Yeah, there’s a reason everyone hated Evan Bayh, but you never really hear the base complaining about Joe Donnelly.

I was never into the Evan Bayh hype during his 2016 Senate race personally. I thought that he was going to lose throughout every part of the cycle.

[Blair]

Honestly, there's an upside to Bredesen losing big as it seems he will. It's a great lesson for """MODERATE""" democrats who think they can win by acting like Republicans, that they're gonna pay a price for it. The base will only stick with you up to a point.

They would surely not have won with a Bernie Sanders like candidate either in Tennessee.

People aren’t generally calling for a Bernie Sanders type candiate.

It always annoys me when people call out moderates such as Bredesen as being useless politicians, only to be told ‘oh so you want Sanders people running then’.

It’s not Bredesen ideology that annoys me- it’s his lack of political courage, and his complete lack of authenticity

Yeah, there’s a reason everyone hated Evan Bayh, but you never really hear the base complaining about Joe Donnelly.

The Democrats are in the minority these days, and badly so, because they've lost sight of the fact that, in many instances, half a Democrat is better than no Democrat at all.

That's not what my argument was at all- I'd still vote for Bredesen, and god knows if I was a US citizen and wealthy enough I'd be contributing to the DSCC and Bredesen- I'm just saying that the Democratic Party needs to recruit more politicians who actually have balls.

We picked Bredesen- who is the exact type of person who republicans say the Democrats need, and look at how well he's performing? I'm sick of the Democrats nominating crap politicians are so afraid of there own shadow that they sell out before they even lose the election.

Virtually all the half-democrats have lost re-election...

Landrieu
Bayh
Lincoln
Pryor

I'm sure the list goes on

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Virtually all the half-democrats have lost re-election...

Landrieu
Bayh
Lincoln
Pryor

I'm sure the list goes on

I think this has more to do with the fact that they were running in unwinnable states in unwinnable years than being half or full Democrats. Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill for example, would have been doomed if he had to run in 2010 or 2014, and would be doomed in 2018 if it were a Hillary midterm.

But it is true, being moderate/conservative doesn't bring you much (if anything) as a Dem these days, and one thing it does definitely do is hurt your fundraising and it makes your base less excited than otherwise (see exhibit Beto).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just saw a Blackburn ad on the national Tennessee-Auburn football telecast.

[TML]

TBH, although I was happy that Bredesen led in the polls for a while, down inside I always had a feeling that his campaign style might be, to put it diplomatically, less than optimal. Compared to Doug Jones' campaign, here are some areas where I think Bredesen didn't do as well as Jones did:

-Be more aggressive in attacking his opponent

In this current political climate, running a campaign which is too civil often ends up working against the candidate running that campaign. IMO, the Jones campaign was more aggressive in attacking Moore than Bredesen has been in attacking Blackburn.

-Do less to alienate progressive base voters

The Cook Political Report currently rates TN as less right-leaning than WV or ND and right in line with AL, so I think Bredesen would have been in better shape had he positioned himself closer to Jones or Tester than Manchin or Heitkamp. Indeed, during Jones' 2017 campaign, one particular political commentator stated that the problem with moving Jones toward the center/left is that such a move would turn off progressive base voters.

Now, logic tells me that Bredesen is on track to becoming the next Evan Bayh, but if by some chance he recovers and pulls this one out, I hope he can change his style to align himself closer to Jones/Tester than Manchin/Heitkamp, since his current style will probably not make him stick around for long should he get in.

[SCNCmod]

TBH, although I was happy that Bredesen led in the polls for a while, down inside I always had a feeling that his campaign style might be, to put it diplomatically, less than optimal. Compared to Doug Jones' campaign, here are some areas where I think Bredesen didn't do as well as Jones did:

-Be more aggressive in attacking his opponent

In this current political climate, running a campaign which is too civil often ends up working against the candidate running that campaign. IMO, the Jones campaign was more aggressive in attacking Moore than Bredesen has been in attacking Blackburn.

-Do less to alienate progressive base voters

The Cook Political Report currently rates TN as less right-leaning than WV or ND and right in line with AL, so I think Bredesen would have been in better shape had he positioned himself closer to Jones or Tester than Manchin or Heitkamp. Indeed, during Jones' 2017 campaign, one particular political commentator stated that the problem with moving Jones toward the center/left is that such a move would turn off progressive base voters.

Now, logic tells me that Bredesen is on track to becoming the next Evan Bayh, but if by some chance he recovers and pulls this one out, I hope he can change his style to align himself closer to Jones/Tester than Manchin/Heitkamp, since his current style will probably not make him stick around for long should he get in.

I get the feeling he was recruit to run of sorts... and likely would not seek re-election.

[Wisconsin+17]

There was a time when Democrats dominated the senate and routinely had 65+ supermajorities. The attitude in this thread is why that changed.

[Storr]

There was a time when Democrats dominated the senate and routinely had 65+ supermajorities. The attitude in this thread is why that changed.

Not really...what changed was the Great Depression ended. Democrats had majorities of 65+ from 1935 to 1943. Other than that, the only other time Democrats have had a 65+ majority was from 1963 to 1967.

[Virginiá]

There was a time when Democrats dominated the senate and routinely had 65+ supermajorities. The attitude in this thread is why that changed.

Not really:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses

1933 - 1943 and 1959 - 1969, and even then, some of those times they didn't actually have a super-majority (as in 2/3). Sometimes barely under, like 64 or 66 seats. Even during Watergate, the best they could muster was 61 seats. I think for a while there, the filibuster was also 2/3rd, but then again they didn't abuse it as much either.

Most of the time they only had <60 seats.

[Wisconsin+17]

36 years of super majorities, including control of congress from 1933 to 1994. That's 61 years of democrat control...

What changed was the hard tack you took over Clarence Thomas. There used to be democrats in places like Nebraska before. (and those Nebraska Dems pretty much vote the same as the Rs now).

[Virginiá]

36 years of super majorities, including control of congress from 1933 to 1994. That's 61 years of democrat control...

What changed was the hard tack you took over Clarence Thomas. There used to be democrats in places like Nebraska before. (and those Nebraska Dems pretty much vote the same as the Rs now).

No, you said "65+ supermajorities." Where? 1935 - 1943 and 1959 - 1969 were the primary time periods where Democrats had unambiguous super-majorities (you can't count 60+ if your idea of a super majority relies on the filibuster, which hasn't always been 60+). But most of the time Democrats controlled the Senate between 1933 - 1994, it was majorities under 60 seats, and more under 65. I'm not guessing. I even gave you a link to see for yourself.

And what changed wasn't entirely within the control of Democrats. They weren't going to be America's dominant coalition forever. Republicans were building up support since the 1960s, well before Democrats' multi-generational control of Congress ended, so it's not exactly like Democrats tacking left killed them. Voters were content to boot out conservative and centrist Democrats alike all across the south (and elsewhere).

Funny enough you mention Thomas. His confirmation is probably what will kill Biden's chances of winning the nomination today. Democrats had a comfortably Senate majority back then, they could have tanked Thomas completely, but they didn't, and aren't exactly remembered too fondly by the left for their handling of that either.

The fact is, starting a bit before Eisenhower but also with the civil rights movement in the 60s, Republicans were gaining ground across the country and it was only a matter of time before they ended Democratic control of Congress. I imagine the 2000s and 2010s will be remembered in a similar vein - the span of time where GOP control of America began eroding at its foundation.