which candidate will win the appalachia region?

[Sam Spade]

What color is the sky?

Clinton-colored.

Pink?

[Firefly]

What color is the sky?

Clinton-colored.

Pink?

That could be interpreted a couple of different ways...

[Sam Spade]

What color is the sky?

Clinton-colored.

Pink?

That could be interpreted a couple of different ways...

Precisely what I had in mind...

[Nym90]

Would be interested to see the numbers from 2000 and 2004 for each region before I answer this question. Anyone have the time to add them up?

Mitty is correct that racism is not as big of a factor in this region as most assume. It was a very strongly pro-Union area during the Civil War, for just one example.

I actually think Obama will do surprisingly well here. Not any worse than Kerry, at least (which is saying almost nothing, but still, most people seem to assume he'll do worse than Kerry, which I highly doubt).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2000 results in the ARC's Central Appalachia: Bush 53.2, Gore 46.8 (Nader et al ignored; it's not as though anyone actually vote for him up there anyway). That's a margin of about 50,000. The central area is defined in a rather odd way though (which may just be a reflection of the way the ARC was drawn up). State figures:

Kentucky: Bush 56.9, Gore 43.1 (note that a majority of votes cast in the central area were cast in Kentucky)
Virginia: Bush 50.5, Gore 49.5
Tennessee: Gore 50.8, Bush 49.2 (Gore win obviously due to a personal vote; Smith county is included in this area)
West Virginia: Gore 52.7, Bush 47.3

The area extends into areas which, while clearly Appalachian, are quite clearly not part of *central* Appalachia, while not including a large part of the central Appalachian coalfield. A tighter drawing of the area would result, I think, in a Gore win.

Not done this for the other two areas (because it would take forever and I have things to do) or for 2004 (I don't want to get too depressed).

[Sbane]

Obama will lose because he is an "elitist" muslim.

[??????????]

Obama will lose because he is an "elitist" muslim.

Obviously you've never been to Appalachia.

[JohnCA246]

I'll go out on a limb and say Obama wins the coal belt of the Central Appalachia.  I do think race will be an issue, but I'd say he gets about what Kerry got, maybe a little better.  Outside the KY WV border region I expect him to get clobbered though.

[Eraserhead]

What color is the sky?

be patient, spade.

we'll see.

More on this later.

[Keystone Phil]

What color is the sky?

be patient, spade.

we'll see.

More on this later.

I don't know. Ask me Thursday.

[WalterMitty]

i wonder what criteria the arc used to determine which counties were 'appalachian' and which werent.

i dont understand why forsyth and davie counties in nc are considered part of appalachia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll go out on a limb and say Obama wins the coal belt of the Central Appalachia.  I do think race will be an issue, but I'd say he gets about what Kerry got, maybe a little better.  Outside the KY WV border region I expect him to get clobbered though.

That's not really out on a limb since Kerry won there.

[NOVA Green]

I'll go out on a limb and say Obama wins the coal belt of the Central Appalachia.  I do think race will be an issue, but I'd say he gets about what Kerry got, maybe a little better.  Outside the KY WV border region I expect him to get clobbered though.

That's not really out on a limb since Kerry won there.

BRTD: Do you have the tallies for us here? I think just about everyone has been too lazy to total up the 100+ counties involved for 2000 and '04?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll go out on a limb and say Obama wins the coal belt of the Central Appalachia.  I do think race will be an issue, but I'd say he gets about what Kerry got, maybe a little better.  Outside the KY WV border region I expect him to get clobbered though.

That's not really out on a limb since Kerry won there.

BRTD: Do you have the tallies for us here? I think just about everyone has been too lazy to total up the 100+ counties involved for 2000 and '04?

I'm referring to just the Coal Belt, and that can be derived simply by looking at the map.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

i wonder what criteria the arc used to determine which counties were 'appalachian' and which werent.

i dont understand why forsyth and davie counties in nc are considered part of appalachia.

They were drawn up by Congress IIRC

[WalterMitty]

i wonder what criteria the arc used to determine which counties were 'appalachian' and which werent.

i dont understand why forsyth and davie counties in nc are considered part of appalachia.

They were drawn up by Congress IIRC

oh that explains it.

[JohnCA246]

Well I say go out on a limb, because it seems everyone is saying hell get trounced  in the coal belt.  I'm a bit more optimistic, but dont see us winning the state by any means.