🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mello]

That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.

Yeah, the poll results are quite surprising. It's just one poll, though, and the PSD rising trend was already visible, just like in the PS, plus, I also believe this is the best PSD share in a poll in 5 years or so. Also, some Rangel supporters had a meltdown, yesterday, on social media because of this poll. Oh, well.

Now, more seriously, I don't know if Rio's strategy of "stability at all costs", isn't sounding like music to the ears of many voters. Rio is campaigning that he's ready to talk to the PS and/or the right (CDS and IL), in order to have a stable government, the PSD winning or losing. At the same time, the PS is still undecided on which strategy to follow: talk to the right, mend things with the left or bank everything on an absolute majority? Plus, Rangel is also very vague about the "PS talk" issue, and continues pressing on the ludicrous fantasy, IMO, of a PSD absolute majority. Even though Rio's strategy is trashed daily on the media and by his internal foes, amid a pandemic surge, economic anxiety and uncertainty about the future, maybe Rio's speech is just what voters want to hear. That's my view.

That Rangel wasn't reading the room, meaning voters overall, was clear for some time now as no single poll shows him ahead of Rio, even in PSD voters. Now, let's see if the PSD members also read the room, meaning, what polls are saying, of course.

What polls? Was there any poll besides Pitagórica's and an Aximage poll earlier this month that had something like 38-31 with PSD voters? I think all the other polls only had

I don't think party structures matter much at all during the primary era. Nobody's going to vote because some guy they barely know at the Distrital supports this or that candidate. The causation runs the other way around.

[Mello]

What polls? Was there any poll besides Pitagórica's and an Aximage poll earlier this month that had something like 38-31 with PSD voters? I think all the other polls only had

I don't think party structures matter much at all during the primary era. Nobody's going to vote because some guy they barely know at the Distrital supports this or that candidate. The causation runs the other way around.

Hi there Mello Welcome to the forum. Nice to see another fellow Portuguese poster around here

There was a RTP-CESOP poll that had Rio leading Rangel 48-41% in the PSD electorate. Intercampus did also a poll, but only the data from the overall electorate was released and had Rio up 49-34%. They didn't release details of the PSD electorate data.

I can agree that party local big bosses don't have the power they once had, especially when leaders were elected by delegates in the past, but they still have some power and can sway members to one side or another, maybe not the majority, but a pretty big portion who can still make or break.

I missed that Catolica poll, thanks.

Pretty impressive how not only PSD voters seem to be a good proxy for PSD members, as you point out; but how relatively small sub-samples seem to be representative (the total sample of that poll was 878, so roughly a subsample of ~225 PSD voters).

Does Pitagórica have a left wing bias?

No, I don't think so. Pitagórica is, however, a polling company that has a lot of shifts between polls, and this tracking poll is like a rollercoaster: It started with the PS at around 10 points ahead of the PSD, then the gap closed and last weekend the PSD surpassed the PS, but since then the PS has grown again and the PSD dropped a bit.

Their 2019 tracking poll was pretty good - perhaps the most accurate one?. Didn't have these wild swings - very unusual to see this on tracking polls. No idea if it's mostly noise or undecided voters were flocking to PSD earlier in the campaign and later deciders in the last few days are going massively to PS.

Their European elections poll was also very good, their local elections poll in Lisboa was widely off the mark but so were most. Not enough data to calculate house effects but they don't seem to have a bias.


Rumour has it today's Sic/Expresso's poll is going to show PS-35, PSD-33, IL-6, CH-6, CDU-6, BE-5, PAN-2, so it seems an aggregate should show a slight PS advantage.

[Mello]

1 - I actually don't think a scenario where Chicão remains CDS leader is that implausible: good chance he's their only MP on the next legislature - that's probably the best case scenario at this point. And if that happens, there's zero chance he'll ever give up the job (except if, miraculously, he somehow manages to leverage that into a government position in the event of a Rui Rio right-wing government), regardless of who's in charge of the party.

Not really sure there are enough anti-Chicão members left to win an internal dispute in that scenario - I doubt many will be interested in the task in the first place.

Even if CDS elects no one - is the party worth saving for those people? Life as a political party without parliamentary representation is absolute hell in Portugal. Especially wrt finances. Off the top of my head, I can't think of any party that has recovered from losing AR representation? PRD? MDP/CDE? PDC?  PPM? That party of pensioners whose name eludes me right now (ps - had to check: PSN - Partido da Solidariedade Nacional - elected Manuel Sergio in 1991, no MPs in 1995, officially dissolved in 2006)?

I do think the most likely scenario is that Melo, Meireles or someone else supported by that Portas group makes a last effort to save and revive the party. But it's not far-fetched they'll just give up and a comatose CDS just goes on into a slow death under Chicão or one of his close friends.

CDS was, to a very large extent, a coalition of IL and Chega voters - the trouble is that Chega has hitherto been too low-brow, too acerbic, populist, and too much of a personality cult for most CDS members on that more conservative, traditionalist, wing (not necessarily their voters though); and IL is a bit too radical, socially liberal, strident, for those on the more liberal wing (once again, not necessarily the voters).

From Monday, they'll have larger parliamentary groups, will presumably moderate the tone (especially if they're in a majority), gain respectability - hardly surprising if, after taking over their voters, they (along with PSD) also capture what has always been CDS' biggest asset, their cadres and influencers. And this effect will be compounded if Rio becomes PM.

2 - Extremely sceptical that the entire infected/quarantined voters kerfuffle had any sort of non-negligible impact. I don't think the topic had any staying power and it didn't seem the criticism was particularly focused on the government/PS.

[Mello]

Big age gap in this poll:

18-24 years old: (10% of the electorate)

24% PSD
  8% PS
  8% BE
  6% IL
  5% CHEGA
  2% PAN
  1% CDU
  1% CDS
45% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

25-44 years old: (28%)

22% PS
20% PSD
  9% IL
  7% CHEGA
  5% BE
  5% CDU
  2% PAN
  1% CDS
29% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

45-64 years old: (35%)

31% PS
30% PSD
  5% CHEGA
  3% BE
  3% IL
  2% CDU
  1% PAN
  1% CDS
  1% Livre
23% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

65+ years old: (27%)

38% PS
25% PSD
  9% CDU
  2% CHEGA
  2% BE
  2% IL
  1% CDS
  1% Livre
20% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

Poll conducted between 18 and 24 January 2022. Polled 1,003 voters. MoE of 3.10%

Contra recent trends in some Western countries, in Portugal the right-of-center vote is younger, more female and more educated - although age is the only robust gap.  

sondagens-ics-ul.iscte-iul.pt/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Sondagem-ICS_ISCTE_Janeiro-22_final.pdf

sondagens-ics-ul.iscte-iul.pt/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Quadros_18-a-24-Janeiro-2022.xlsx



By the way, speaking of historical parties slowly dying, age tabs on this and other polls are increasingly ominous to the PCP. I suspect everyone at Soeiro Pereira Gomes today is praying -one would hope not literally but perhaps morale is that low- for either a right-wing majority or a left-wing majority that allows them to be opposition from the left.

Otherwise, their next leader - either Ferreira or Oliveira - will face even bigger headwinds to revive the party, even if they try to "modernize" to become more attractive to younger voters (and don't say silly stuff about North Korea and whatnot). A large part of their voting base is socially conservative rural voters - hence their positions on euthanasia or bullfights, and why they're relatively low-key in other social issues (they probably have the most socially conservative voting bases besides Chega and CDS and mostly because of abortion) - and therefore trying to gain ground with young urban voters becomes, at the very least, arduous; if not flat out insurmountable when they're forced to vote for the budgets and their strategy of strident/principled style of opposition to the government of the day's economic policy sounds sort of hollow. The PCP has vast amounts of money/real estate patrimony, and enough members truly committed to the caus, to hang on for a while but it's not simple to foresee how they turn their fortunes around.

[Mello]

Campaign update:

- The last day of the campaign is being marked by the words of Augusto Santos Silva, Foreign minister, that in a TV interview said that the most likely outcome of the elections may be a "gentleman's deal" between PS and PSD in order for either one of them to govern with some stability. Rio has said he's on board with that idea, and is challenging Costa to say the same;

Such an arrangement will last, *at most*, the necessary time to pass the government program and the budget for what's left of this fiscal year; I then expect a left/right ideological majority to rule for the remaining of the legislature, either via government coalitions, parliamentary agreements or a mix of both.

told CNN Portugal that a very low turnout of those isolated/infected would benefit the PS and CDU, as these parties have a very strong base in older voters, while other parties like PSD, BE, IL and CHEGA have a much more younger voter base, that is the one currently being affected by the wave of Covid infections, and could be hurt electorally in this scenario.

This is a very good point. I was thinking that it'd benefit the opposition parties because polls suggest their voters are marginally more enthusiastic about voting and CDU because their voters are traditionally very assiduous, but the age gap in the epidemic curve certainly changes things. Probably a very residual impact though. 

[Mello]

Traditionally simple (non-weighted) last-week polling averages have been very accurate for general elections. Decimal points eliminated:


PS - 35 - [34-37]
PSD - 33 - [31-34]
Chega - 6 - [5-8]
BE - 6 - [5-7]
CDU - 5 - [5-6]
IL - 5 - [3-5]
PAN - 2 - [1-3]
Livre - 2 - [1-2]
CDS - 2 - [1-2]

---

Those with a preference for more complex modeling (and FAR less proven) can check
jrdaniel.shinyapps.io/paragrafo/

Controlled for pollster quality, sample size and house effect; extrapolated to electoral districts by weighting the polls internal tabs for regions (mind uncertainty and size effect, those are very small subsamples).

gyazo.com/0d7bb00addc4811385566a4a2a945548.png

[Mello]

Each district has a different ballot, as some parties don't run in all districts, but this is the ballot given to voters in Santarém district:

Can confirm my ballot looked like this.

Voted at around 2pm; I was the only voter at my polling station in exurban/rural Ribatejo, with literally no other voter nowhere in sight. First time voting in Portugal in years so was a tad surprised; was told this wasn't too unusual for this time of the day but that turnout seems a bit lower. Poll workers were wearing plastic coverall suits and the place was extremely white inside, which gave the thing a slightly dystopian vibe.  

[Mello]

^ I'm not sure if you are having trouble with links/images since you are a new user, but the gyazo takes one to a online models results. And as we saw when the PSD drew level with PS for a moment last week, the modeled distribution suggests anything less than a 2% PS lead could be a nail-biter. A popular vote/seat count winner difference would be an interesting result that's for sure.

Yeah, I am blocked. The gyazo wasn't supposed to be there; it's merely a jrdaniel.shinyapps.io/paragrafo/ main page screencap which I added to check if images bypassed the block.

And yeah, PSD voter dispersion should be more efficient if it's close. In the case of a very close election, it can go down to which small party, if any, elects from the 9/10 seat districts like Coimbra, Leiria, Faro, Santarém.

[Mello]

Can confirm my ballot looked like this.

Voted at around 2pm; I was the only voter at my polling station in exurban/rural Ribatejo, with literally no other voter nowhere in sight. First time voting in Portugal in years so was a tad surprised; was told this wasn't too unusual for this time of the day but that turnout seems a bit lower. Poll workers were wearing plastic coverall suits and the place was extremely white inside, which gave the thing a slightly dystopian vibe.  

If you voted in those Estado Novo style schools, they are all painted white. Polling workers have to use those suits because of infected people that could show up. It's recommended to vote after 6pm, but you never know.

It's a ghastly, modern-looking, 'Junta de Freguesia' building, with those elongated windows near the ceiling, like horizontal arrowslits, and artificial lighting. They seem to have removed most furniture/decor, which enhanced that clinical feeling. I understand why they were wearing the suits, but the result was still that amusing ambiance.

[Mello]

Leaked exit poll results have been showing PS overperforming and PSD underperforming re: last week polls all day.

[Mello]

I'm catching up, football oblige, but I think PS will get an absolute majority.

In a way, sort of a silver lining for the parties at the Socialists' left.

As for CDS, I really doubt they'll elect anyone. As of now, the projection for the last MPs from Lisboa look like this:

Lisboa CH 1.93 46 Sim Pedro Manuel de Andrade Pessanha Fernandes
Lisboa PCP 1.90 47 Sim Duarte Le Falher de Campos Alves
Lisboa IL 1.90 48 Sim Bernardo Alves Martinho Amaral Blanco
Lisboa PS 1.88 49 Não João Miguel Maçarico Nicolau
Lisboa PSD 1.82 50 Não Alexandre Bernardo de Macedo e Lopes Simões
Lisboa PS 1.80 51 Não Ricardo Jorge Monteiro Lima
Lisboa PS 1.72 52 Não Vera Lúcia Raimundo Braz dos Santos
Lisboa PSD 1.69 53 Não João Carlos da Silva Bastos Dias Coelho
Lisboa       CDS  1.66 54     Não  Francisco José Nina Martins Rodrigues dos Santos

[Mello]

I estimate PS will end up with 116 to 119 seats. It's implausible they won't reach the majority as the freguesias still out shouldn't be particularly weak for them.

Difficult to see how Catarina Martins can stay as BE's leader after this debacle. Martins, Sousa, Rio, Chicão - 4 out of 7 leaders will soon be gone.

Corvo has had interesting politics the last couple of decades, with PPM, featuring the island's teacher, and CDS, featuring the island's mailman, often having great results.

[Mello]

IL gets a seat in Braga as the last parish drops.

They'll end up the night with 8 seats: 4 from Lisboa, 2 from Porto, 1 from Setubal and 1 from Braga.

After campaigning heavily in Braga with hopes of getting back the seat they lost in 2019, the PCP gets 2.6% and the 6th spot. This isn't the slow death I wrote about earlier.

[Mello]

Will the various Left-wing parties learn a lesson from this and form electoral pacts next election?

Nah.

Livre and MAS are already BE spin-offs - egos and typical far-left sectarianism- and it's unlikely they'll go back to the fold.

Zero chances of any electoral pacts involving the PCP (besides the one with the satellite environmentalist fake party - which for the first time since its existence won't have parliamentary representation).  

The absolute majority is a silver lining to those parties. Not sure they'd resist a few more years of having to prop tPS governments

[Mello]

34 seats left…

PS 105 (+11)
PSD 69 (-1)
CHEGA 10 (+10)
I.LIBERAL 5 (+5)
PCP-PEV 4 (-5)
BE 3 (-13)

Any chance peg breaks from the commies

If you mean PEV, it isn't a de facto independent party; rather a PCP appendage, a marketing ploy they concoted in the early 80s to 1) shut the door on a potential green party on the left that could compete to their votes 2) soften their image, allowing them to run and show on the ballot with anodyne name and logos, like CDU and a honeycomb instead of the communist and hammer and sickle (with the additional benefit of not losing so many votes to parties like the PCTP/MRPP and UDP that also had the hammer and sickle on their logo).

[Mello]

Livre elects an MP.

I think the CDS will be wipe out.

What about PAN? Could still get a seat? Only 21 seats left and it’s like this:

PS 110 (+12)
PSD 72 (-1)
CHEGA 11 (+11)
I.LIBERAL 6 (+5)
PCP-PEV 5 (-5)
BE 4 (-14)
LIVRE 1 (+1)

Could get just one in Lisbon, but it will be a close call.

I think she'll get in with some margin (relatively speaking, that is)

Lisboa   PAN   1.99   44   Sim   Paula Inês Alves de Sousa Real
Lisboa   CH   1.98   45   Sim   Pedro Manuel de Andrade Pessanha Fernandes
Lisboa   IL   1.98   45   Sim   Bernardo Alves Martinho Amaral Blanco
Lisboa   PS   1.93   47   Sim   Rita Mafalda Nobre Borges Madeira
Lisboa   PSD   1.85   48   Sim   Alexandre Bernardo de Macedo e Lopes Simões
Lisboa   PS   1.85   49   Não   João Miguel Maçarico Nicolau