2020 CDU Leadership Contest

[Pick Up the Phone]

They're gonna have to beg Merkel herself to run again, aren't they?

This is quite unlikely. Although she appears to have been the one who staged the disposal of AKK:
- Her now infamous claim of a new election in Thuringia (without any constitutional right to do so) was the first call for this, and immediately the CDU presidium took over this position
- She fired Mr Hirte, a confidant of Mr Mohring
- AKK famously unable to convince the only persons with a right to order new elections, the CDU Thuringia caucus
- The joint meeting of the coalition also ordered a new election and that the federal CDU had to take over this position, despite no right what ever to reign into intraparty affairs

What? Which infamous claim? Merkel's statement happened long after Söder and many others had already come out in favor of new elections. And she definitely has a constitutional right to call for them (just like any other German citizen); she only lacks the right to order them and that she didn't. I also find it difficult to establish a causal connection between the sacking of Hirte and AKK's decision. Hirte is a nobody who has created some bad headlines in the past. This was just the most convenient opportunity to (a) get rid of him and (b) convey the impression that the federal CDU is really serious about the Thuringia issue. Two birds - one stone.
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The lead candidate of the Baden-Württemberg CDU (next state election: 2021) has just endorsed Jens Spahn and called for a "changing of the guard" within the party. I'm not sure if another run will actually help him, as he has already raised his national profile in 2018. And that wa most likely his main goal.

It really is a pity that Merkel doesn't want to run again. Make no mistake: She is still by far the best candidate the CDU has to offer and the only one who would have the chancellorship on lock. Great chance for Habeck or Baerbock though.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Sorry but calling for a new election from South Africa (that's where she was at the moment) before AKK as nominal CDU chair is unheard of.

I know where she was. And no, Merkel was in this case just reacting to previous statements made by Söder, Lindner, and friends.

Every political commentator from Sueddeutsche (pro-SPD) to FAZ(conservative pro-CDU)  and Handelsblatt (Merkel's mouthpiece) sees it the same way:

Sorry, but the claim that "every political commentator sees it the same way" is as wrong as the one that the Süddeutsche is pro-SPD. It is nothing of that sort. If anything, its editorial stance has been vaguely supportive of my own party (Greens) in recent times. But even this doesn't necessarily apply to individual opinion writers of course.

By taking a leading role again, she dismantled AKK. Leading decisively is the most important qualitiy a leading politician has to prove. If not, bye bye, Felicia (or in this case, AKK).

She's the Chancellor. She was supposed to intervene at some point, especially since the whole Thuringia affair had an impact of Germany's image abroad. In any case, Merkel had no reason to dismantle or weaken AKK in any way.  

It is quite naive to expect Mrs Merkel issue a statement like this by chance.

Not by chance but because she didn't have any choice but to say something.

And have you ever heard of the autonomy of the local CDU branches? OK, this subsidiarity principle is quite hollow, and at least played to the outside.  
This breach of principle has damaged the CDU further. I do not like the AfD at all. Now they can repeat the mantra of the de-facto non-existent "left dictatorship" in Germany.

Come on, the AfD is repeating this nonsense since 2015 now. The Chancellor does something they don't like and these people shout "Dictatorship!!!" - it really doesn't matter at this point anymore. These people are mentally incapable of understanding the basic tenets of Germany's constitutional order, which allows Merkel to demand whatever she wants. As long as she doesn't formally intervene into state affairs, everything is fine.

And to quote FDR: "In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way." Mr Hirte was sacked by Mrs Merkel without any warning. Usually, this is a topic for the CDU presidium, where the political position are dealt with(political proportion like x women, y men, and z number of Eastern Germans etc.).

Of course, things do happen by accident. More than 50% of politics is based on a seemingly endless series of accidents, miscalculations, suddenly emerging opportunity structures etc.

Yet in this case, as I said before, there were already calls to sack Hirte in the past. And the Chancellor has definitely the right to decide who should serve in her government and who shouldn't. This is her decision to make and her decision alone.

[Pick Up the Phone]

They're gonna have to beg Merkel herself to run again, aren't they?

This is quite unlikely. Although she appears to have been the one who staged the disposal of AKK:
- Her now infamous claim of a new election in Thuringia (without any constitutional right to do so) was the first call for this, and immediately the CDU presidium took over this position
- She fired Mr Hirte, a confidant of Mr Mohring
- AKK famously unable to convince the only persons with a right to order new elections, the CDU Thuringia caucus
- The joint meeting of the coalition also ordered a new election and that the federal CDU had to take over this position, despite no right what ever to reign into intraparty affairs

To me, the most likely new CDU chairperson will be PM Armin Laschet of NRW. Mrs Merkel hat about 40 % of the party officials at her command, as the election of AKK has shown. With support of the JU and 100 % of the CDU NRW delegates, this would suffice.

Mr Merz has no natural constituency. There may be a puppet candidate (like Mr Spahn) to siphon away some potential support from him and command it to the Merkelista side. Plus his main assets like the CDU East Germany(to be clear: the non ancien régime parts, these are the core supporters of Mrs Merkel, please remember that Mr Mohring et al are stemming from integrated former indenpendent parties which were the true drivers of the Revolution of 1989 like Demokratischer Aufbruch, Neues Forum and Deutsche Soziale Union) are now burnt toast.

Mertz is the best hope for the cdu he can win back some add voters

No, not necessarily. He might win back a few FDP voters (possibly pushing the party below the threshold) and mobilize a specific anti-Merkel segment within the CDU. Sure. But his selection would also create significant backlash and the center-left would have an easy time to depict Merz as a neoliberal Heuschrecke who must be stopped at all cost.

There is a reason why many SPD politicians secretly root for Merz and call him a "gift of God". Laschet would be considered far more dangerous.

[Pick Up the Phone]

This "team solution" thing is kind of weird. I don't know why all of a sudden politicians feel this is such a great idea. What's next? Two heads of government serving as "co-chancellor"?

I think Söder himself would actually be a stronger candidate than people think. He might be able to win back some conservative voters due to CSU's more hardline immigration stance, while he started to open the door to Greens. His administration in Bavaria has pursued a lot of environmental policies since he took office, what generally raised my opinion of him. He makes a more mature impression now than at the time he served as Bavarian finance minister. Söder also has some "youth factor", but has practical governing experience (even though state level is vastly different from Berlin).

The point with Söder (of whose development I'm also positively surprised) is that he has plenty of time and no pressure. There's hardly an incentive for him to leave Bavaria and risk the end of his political career at Age 53. His current position is safe enough and he can afford to wait for more stable times.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Plot twist: Former environment minister (2009-2012) und incumbent Bundestag foreign affaiers committee chairman Norbert Röttgen has officially announced his candidacy for the CDU chairmanship.

He'll probably not suceed, but it potentially blows the field and the process wide open. So far, AKK tried to tightly control events and this goes against it.

He is responsible for the worst showing of CDU in the history of NRW, so if elected, we might see a repeat of that on federal level.

First and foremost, Röttgen is another "I've got a score to settle with Merkel" candidacy similar to Merz' candidacy. In 2012, he was fired (and that literally means fired because he had refused to resign) by Merkel as environment minister and scuttblebutt is that he never got over it.

Would not be too surprised if we ended up with incoming candidacies of Roland Koch, Christian Wulff, Günther Oettinger and Jürgen Rüttgers.

Let's not forget good ol' Wolfgang Bosbach!

[Pick Up the Phone]

So, some questions:

-Why isn't Merkel running again? It seems she is the only good candidate CDU has and would lock the Chancellorship for them? Granted that runs the risk of making CDU into "the Merkel party", but I guess it is already that so

Merkel is seen by some in the CDU as the reason why the party lost votes in recent years. The CDU/CSU is currently far below their historical average at 26%-28%. If she'd run again she might become the longest-serving post-WWII Chancellor (and the second-longest overall after Bismarck) and it is already the case that talk about "the forever Chancellor" and "Merkel fatigue" makes the round. But maybe it is for that reason there's also a chance she might lose this time around.

Merkel doesn't have to care what a few CDU backbenchers think of her. She still one of the most popular politicians in Germany and if she were to run again in 2021 (and even in 2025), no other CDU candidate could realistically stop her.

However, to answer the question, she simply doesn't want to run again. Perhaps because she is exhausted by politics, perhaps because she's already feeling the signs of getting old, perhaps because she wants to get a position elsewhere (UN/EU/NATO...).

She never really explained it in detail, but only announced the following back in 2018:

"This will be my last term as Chancellor of Germany (...) I once said that I wasn't born as Chancellor and that is something, I have never forgotten. I strongly feel that the time has come to open a new chapter."

[Pick Up the Phone]

So, some questions:

-Why isn't Merkel running again? It seems she is the only good candidate CDU has and would lock the Chancellorship for them? Granted that runs the risk of making CDU into "the Merkel party", but I guess it is already that so

Merkel is seen by some in the CDU as the reason why the party lost votes in recent years. The CDU/CSU is currently far below their historical average at 26%-28%. If she'd run again she might become the longest-serving post-WWII Chancellor (and the second-longest overall after Bismarck) and it is already the case that talk about "the forever Chancellor" and "Merkel fatigue" makes the round. But maybe it is for that reason there's also a chance she might lose this time around.

Merkel doesn't have to care what a few CDU backbenchers think of her. She still one of the most popular politicians in Germany and if she were to run again in 2021 (and even in 2025), no other CDU candidate could realistically stop her.

However, to answer the question, she simply doesn't want to run again. Perhaps because she is exhausted by politics, perhaps because she's already feeling the signs of getting old, perhaps because she wants to get a position elsewhere (UN/EU/NATO...).

She never really explained it in detail, but only announced the following back in 2018:

"This will be my last term as Chancellor of Germany (...) I once said that I wasn't born as Chancellor and that is something, I have never forgotten. I strongly feel that the time has come to open a new chapter."

She resigned as party leader after suffering double digit losses in two consecutive state elections with intra-party discontent about her at an all-time-high. She knew that announcing this would be her last term would prevent any coup against her and she's smart to enough to remember Helmut Kohl getting voted out of office after four terms. The only reason she's not facing pressure to quit (and the unpopularity that comes along with this pressure) is because she has already announced that she will retire.

Double digit losses in consecutive state elections? Who cares, this has happened many times during her chancellorship. It also happened during the chancellorships of Schröder and Kohl by the way. "Intra-party discontent" at an all-time high? Not really. Do you remember the situation in 2011/2012 when the CDU lost Baden-Württemberg to Kretschmann/Schmid and failed to take back North Rhine-Westphalia from Kraft/Löhrmann? Not to mention the intra-party critics who attacked her over the Grand coalition's handling of the Euro crisis. Or the backlash after Fukushima and the Energiewende etc.

I also don't think that comparing her to Kohl works. Kohl was extremely unpopular during his last years in office (he trailed Schröder by several points and appeared as frustrated and helpless throughout the 1998 campaign), whereas Merkel is still extraordinarily popular and one of the main reasons why the CDU polls above 25%. 

[Pick Up the Phone]

New SPIEGEL poll has Merz and Röttgen far ahead for party leader among CDU/CSU voters, with Laschet far behind:

38% Merz
29% Röttgen
11% Laschet

But for Chancellor candidate, Söder is far ahead among CDU/CSU voters:

61% Söder
18% Merz
  8% Röttgen
  2% Laschet

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/cdu-vorsitz-merz-und-roettgen-liegen-klar-vor-laschet-umfrage-a-5c8232a4-55f5-41a4-9876-200b2903505a

LOL. Good to keep it mind that the voters' preference doesn't matter in the slightest. But shocking to see Röttgen at 29% - Laschet is still the favorite at the moment. Laschet as CDU chairman, Söder as candidate for 2021... seems like a reasonable compromise.

[Pick Up the Phone]

BILD is reporting that Spahn is strongly considering throwing his name in for Kanzlerkandidat in March (?) if his polling numbers remain strong.


But then can someone clarify this for me: if Merz or Laschet wins next week, do they have to submit their name separately for Kanzlerkandidat? Or can they just be like, "Nah, I want to be the candidate, ignore this guy"? How does this process work?

The party leader and the Chancellor candidate are not necessarily the same person. Schröder wasn’t SPD party leader in 1998 nor 2005. Neither were Peer Steinbruck and Frank Walter-Steinmeier in their respective bids, or Olaf Scholz this year, for that matter. As for the Union, Edmund Stoiber was Chancellor candidate in 2002 (though he was CSU leader).

It is separate from the leadership. The party elites may choose whoever they feel, though the leader is always a strong contender for the position and obviously plays a key role in the decision.

Basically this. There is no public contest for the position of Kanzlerkandidat as this is something the party elites decide. Think about the Merkel/Stoiber constellation in 2001/2002. There was a breakfast meeting in Stoiber's house ('Wolfratshauser Frühstück') and they made a decision. That's how things work here.

When it comes to the CDU/CSU, it is also important to keep in mind that we're talking about two different parties. And I really mean different. The CSU has its own party platform, its own leader, its own party-associated foundation (the Hanns Seidel Stiftung), its own political culture and is, in general, more hierarchically structured than the CDU. There is the strong expectation that the leader of the CSU has to be either Minister-President of Bavaria or Chancellor of Germany. In the CDU, there is no such thing, and in the SPD, the leader(s) can be literally anybody. For instance, Saskia Esken does not have a prominent position in parliament and Norbert Walter-Borjans is a former(!) state finance minister. Both are political lightweights.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Laschet as CDU chairman, Söder as candidate for 2021... seems like a reasonable compromise.

Do you still think Söder is the most likely chancellor candidate?

Good question. It's a bit unclear right now and much will depend on whether Söder really wants to leave his cushy position in Bavaria (where he can basically stay in power indefinitely). He did a great job in raising his national profile during the COVID-19 crisis and I would still consider him the likeliest candidate, but we first have to see who the new CDU leader will be. For example, I don't see Merz winning the leadership contest but giving Söder the Kanzlerkandidatur.

[Pick Up the Phone]

BILD is reporting that Spahn is strongly considering throwing his name in for Kanzlerkandidat in March (?) if his polling numbers remain strong.

That's a big 'if', but it makes sense. Spahn is quite popular right now, has high name recognition, and good reasons to try to seize the moment. And he wouldn't be a bad candidate. Elected to parliament at Age 22 (2002), he's both young and experienced - and the fact that he's openly gay doesn't matter to anyone but the far right. His main problem is the intra-party perception that he's way too power-hungry and would be well advised to 'wait his turn'. Many ambitious CDU/CSU politicians are afraid that if Spahn gets the Chancellorship in 2021, he could govern for 20+ years (hypothetical scenario of course), destroying their own career prospects. The German political system is about consensus and party loyalty after all.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Laschet is still the favorite at the moment.

Who do you think is the favorite now?

Do you expect Röttgen and Laschet's supporters to back the other in the second round against Merz?  (I assume Merz is certain to make the run-off). Or do some Röttgen supporters prefer Merz to Laschet?

EDIT: I'd also be very interested in answers from other German posters.

Yes, I still think that Laschet is favored. He has plenty of establishment support and Merz hasn't done anything over the last couple of weeks to improve his position. If anything, COVID-19 may have convinced even more delegates that now is not the time for experiments but for steady leadership.

And that's what Merz would be by the way. An experiment - NOT an anti-establishment option as others have already remarked. I think this is not unimportant as the difference between Merkel and Merz is one of style rather than substance. Ideologically, they are probably closer to each other than... let's say Charlie Baker and Rob Portman to give an U.S. example. Even the term Reaganite seems a little exaggerated (although I see the point). In the end, almost all of Merz's supposed conservatism is confined to three points: (1) free market positions; (2) Transatlanticism; (3) empty nostalgic gestures. I mean... the man has turned from being hardcore conservative to accepting same-sex marriage and talking favorably about environmentalism and a possible CDU-Greens coalition. He would face the same realities and problems as Merkel and he is pragmatic enough to know when he needs to adapt.

Agree that most of the non-Merz vote will eventually converge. Will it be enough for Laschet or will more Röttgen voters go for Merz than Spahn voters did last time? Hard to say but I don't see any good reason to think that Merz should feel confident about it.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Interesting that Söder is considered by many as the strongest possible Kanzlerkandidat. I was under the impression that CSU members were viewed as weak candidates on the national scale, coming across as too extreme and regionalist, tying in with the perception of Bavarian politics as being too separated from the rest of the country. Early on in his tenure as Minister-President, he was mostly making headlines for his push for “values”, e.g. the cross law, but I suppose his reputation has improved since then.

Well, only two CSU politicians were Kanzlerkandidaten in the past. And indeed, they were either considered too extreme (Franz Josef Strauß in 1980) or too regionalist (Edmund Stoiber in 2002). So the assumption is not entirely unfounded.

But you're absolutely right with your last sentence. Not too long ago, people thought of Söder as a conservative hardliner but this image changed drastically since he was elected Minister-President. He smartly positioned himself against Horst Seehofer (who appeared increasingly clumsy and gaffe-prone), started to praise environmentalism and adopt some ecological positions, softened his stance on immigration, and tried to be perceived as statesmanlike. Of course, this would not have been enough under most circumstances. But then came COVID-19. For Söder, the pandemic was (and still is) an absolute godsend and probably an once-in-a-lifetime chance to reshape his national image.

Also, the risk for the CDU/CSU is pretty limited as they will win the election either way. And Merz (too much baggage), Laschet (too vanilla), Spahn (too young and ambitious) or Röttgen (Who?) have their own issues... so the competition is not exactly fierce. I have no doubt hat the clear favorite would have been Ursula von der Leyen, had she not moved to Brussels.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Well, only two CSU politicians were Kanzlerkandidaten in the past. And indeed, they were either considered too extreme (Franz Josef Strauß in 1980) or too regionalist (Edmund Stoiber in 2002). So the assumption is not entirely unfounded.

But you're absolutely right with your last sentence. Not too long ago, people thought of Söder as a conservative hardliner but this image changed drastically since he was elected Minister-President. He smartly positioned himself against Horst Seehofer (who appeared increasingly clumsy and gaffe-prone), started to praise environmentalism and adopt some ecological positions, softened his stance on immigration, and tried to be perceived as statesmanlike. Of course, this would not have been enough under most circumstances. But then came COVID-19. For Söder, the pandemic was (and still is) an absolute godsend and probably an once-in-a-lifetime chance to reshape his national image.

Also, the risk for the CDU/CSU is pretty limited as they will win the election either way. And Merz (too much baggage), Laschet (too vanilla), Spahn (too young and ambitious) or Röttgen (Who?) have their own issues... so the competition is not exactly fierce. I have no doubt hat the clear favorite would have been Ursula von der Leyen, had she not moved to Brussels.

Didn't he actually get some support as a result of his skeptical/negative stance on Muttis "Wir schaffen das" open-door policy?

Maybe you meant legal immigration, but most people usually don't care that much about legal immigrants coming to fill high-skill or empty positions (truck drivers, welders, etc.)?

No, I mean asylum seekers. He has considerably moderated his previous hardline positions on this issue, even though he is certainly no second Angela Merkel. To give just one example, he asked the federal government to take in 'substantially more refugees' from the Moria camp back in September:

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/migration-soeder-will-substanziell-mehr-migranten-aus-moria-aufnehmen-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-200914-99-550796

Legal immigration is a different ball game, especially when the target group consists of highly-skilled migrants etc. - not even the AfD is officially opposed to admitting them.

[Pick Up the Phone]

As expected. The final result was perhaps a little closer than I had thought but well...

And a centrist Laschet CDU has a lot of appeal. Just like the centrist Merkel CDU did. In Germany, elections are typically won by appealing to the center and not by rallying die-hard party zealots. The CDU is in an excellent position right now.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

The question regarding Röttgen was pure sarcasm. With Röttgen's focus on foreign policy on federal level, it is quite clear he has no ambitions for a statewide office.

And regarding Laumann, yeah, I agree, he seems like the most likely choice (+he is already represented in the national Chair board).

Röttgen would actually be an excellent foreign minister. Better than Maas. I can't believe I'm saying this, given my party membership.

All of my fellow Saarländer Cabinet members are mediocre at best.

Imho: AKK > Maas > Altmaier imho (for minister performance only)

You think so? Altmaier seems to do a pretty solid job... at least that's what I hear from within the Berlin bubble. Maas, well, he didn't do much wrong either. But he obviously has an image problem.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

The question regarding Röttgen was pure sarcasm. With Röttgen's focus on foreign policy on federal level, it is quite clear he has no ambitions for a statewide office.

And regarding Laumann, yeah, I agree, he seems like the most likely choice (+he is already represented in the national Chair board).

Röttgen would actually be an excellent foreign minister. Better than Maas. I can't believe I'm saying this, given my party membership.

Röttgen clearly hopes to become FM in a centrist CDU-GRÜNE coalition. But so does Cem Özdemir and maybe even Annalena Baerbock. Given that the junior coalition partner usually gets the office (since 1966 at least), I don't see much of a chance for him. But perhaps Economic Cooperation/Development, which would be a nice consolation prize.

[Pick Up the Phone]

One important question is of course what winning means. Occupying the pivotal spot in the center of the spectrum with 34% can be more attractive than winning 38% but with a coherent adversarial bloc winning a majority.

Right, this is the point. Winning in the sense of staying in power is something completely different than getting as many votes as possible. That's why, to give a notable example, the emergence of the AfD has been a blessing in disguise for the CDU. It may have costed them a couple of voters but it also solidified a situation in which (a) the CDU remains the strongest party and (b) no coalition can be formed without it. Hence "excellent position".