OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

A lot of Democrats here also voted in the Republican primary to oppose Trump in Franklin County, so the numbers there may actually be a few points worse than they look for Balderson in Franklin County.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It'll be a real heartbreaker if O'Connor narrowly loses thanks to Manchik (G-Moscow)

The Green Party in Franklin County often runs Republican plants who are literally trying to throw elections (most notably Bob Fitrakis), so...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fitrakis is a lot of things, and I hate him, but a Republican plant is a bit far. He's on the Green Party's national committee.

--

Interesting piece in the WSJ about the race.

TL;DR: "Balderson has been an 'unsteady campaigner' who has "struggled to raise money and is failing to motivate GOP voters." Stivers, the National Republican Congressional Committee chair who represents the neighboring 15th District, urged Balderson last month to spend more time fundraising and less time on his Ohio Senate duties. Balderson “said he isn’t aware of Washington angst about his fundraising."

Just reporting what I’ve heard Re: Fitrakis

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Obviously this is extremely anecdotal, but a friend of mine from Dublin who was a big #NeverTrumper, but has never voted Democratic in his life aside from voting for Cordrey over DeWine in the 2010 AG election (although he wrote-in Kasich in 2016 Presidential election) is canvassing for O'Connor this weekend.  He said the things that convinced him to support O'Connor were 1) O'Connor's pledge to vote against Pelosi for Speaker (which seems to have been the deciding factor in this case) and support a different Democrat instead and 2) Balderson's comment about giving guns to mentally ill people.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH CD-12 EV Numbers to Date Elsewhere within Franklin Co....

Worthington---- 6.6% of 2016 Vote Share.



EV numbers look atrocious for PUBS even in a City that just recently started voting DEM for PRES in larger numbers in 2012.

Westerville-



This is a City that went +10% Mitt Romney in '12 and DEM margins are +20%, not even including the other vote in Early Voting!!!

I could pull up similar insane numbers for Dublin, etc.... but really I would not be surprised to see final Franklin County SE numbers looking extremely lopsided for O'Connor considering such an extremely poor Republican EV performance in Franklin County, which I suspect is NOT a typical scenario, and also how even relatively historically PUB friendly municipalities are not turning out their voters.

Next I think I'll take a look at the EV numbers by place for Delaware County and match against historical election results, to give us another election weekend teaser....

THANKS AGAIN EBSY!!!!

@ Badger: I now accept my accolades

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like I might be buying some shares of Balderson on election night.

This although I think O’Connor wins at this point.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like I might be buying some shares of Balderson on election night.

Do the two of you want to lose money lol?

We’ll see!

I correctly called the AL Sen special and the margin, but sadly wasn’t on PredictIt at the time.

If I’m right and O’Connor wins, that’s great; if he loses then at least I’ll make a few bucks

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH CD-12 EV Numbers to Date Elsewhere within Franklin Co....

Worthington---- 6.6% of 2016 Vote Share.



EV numbers look atrocious for PUBS even in a City that just recently started voting DEM for PRES in larger numbers in 2012.

Westerville-



This is a City that went +10% Mitt Romney in '12 and DEM margins are +20%, not even including the other vote in Early Voting!!!

I could pull up similar insane numbers for Dublin, etc.... but really I would not be surprised to see final Franklin County SE numbers looking extremely lopsided for O'Connor considering such an extremely poor Republican EV performance in Franklin County, which I suspect is NOT a typical scenario, and also how even relatively historically PUB friendly municipalities are not turning out their voters.

Next I think I'll take a look at the EV numbers by place for Delaware County and match against historical election results, to give us another election weekend teaser....

THANKS AGAIN EBSY!!!!

@ Badger: I now accept my accolades

Hey man, when did I ever doubt you that Franklin County turnout was going to kick butt for O'Connor?

You were pretty skeptical for a while that O’Connor could win Dublin or Westerville

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

More anecdotals: My mom is a registered Republican (voted Kasich in the 2016 primary) and my parents’ house (very wealthy part of Gahanna) has been visited five times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from the Balderson folks.  My aunt and uncle (independent and Republican, respectively) live in a particularly country clubby part of New Albany and have been visited three times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from Balderson’s campaign.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

More anecdotals: My mom is a registered Republican (voted Kasich in the 2016 primary) and my parents’ house (very wealthy part of Gahanna) has been visited five times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from the Balderson folks.  My aunt and uncle (independent and Republican, respectively) live in a particularly country clubby part of New Albany and have been visited three times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from Balderson’s campaign.  

So what do their ballots look like if they are voting?

All O’Connor (along with one of my cousins who is also a Republican) except for my uncle who isn’t going to vote because while he doesn’t like Balderson, he’ll never support a Democrat.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

More anecdotals: My mom is a registered Republican (voted Kasich in the 2016 primary) and my parents’ house (very wealthy part of Gahanna) has been visited five times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from the Balderson folks.  My aunt and uncle (independent and Republican, respectively) live in a particularly country clubby part of New Albany and have been visited three times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from Balderson’s campaign.  

Do you want me to post the numbers from Gahanna and New Albany with EV numbers as of Yesterday (Courtesy of Ebsy....    )    ?

Although I lived in Ohio for Four Years 20+ Years ago in College, I was basically 20 Minutes from Dayton and 50 Minutes from both Columbus and Cinci, so don't pretend to have any of detailed knowledge of the State from a local perspective anymore, although I remember how excited the College Students on my campus were when Bill Clinton won Ohio in '92 (First time in '64???).

What I *suspect* we might be seeing in Metro Columbus (Based upon '08 > '16 PRES results) is a pattern that we observed for the first time in recent American Electoral History in some of the major Metro areas of the West Coast back in '88 (Seattle, Portland, Bay Area Suburbs) where suburban voters started to identify more with the residents of the "City" as opposed to the traditional City/Suburban political, social, and economic divide.

It's early on yet, but we are starting to see in the heavily Ancestral Republican suburbs of North Franklin County (Including the City of Columbus proper) move heavily Democratic at the Presidential Level.

We have yet to see these types of movements at other Federal Elections (With a few exceptions and a few Cities), let alone see the impact at down-ballot Statewide Races where the Republican Coalition still holds strong, and the Democratic Coalition is much more dependent upon large turnouts in the Cities, Ancestral White Union Democrats throughout, swing voters in the 'Burbs, and keeping margins down in the Rurals, especially in places like SE OH.

Still, at the end of the day a "New Democratic Winning Coalition" in Ohio will inherently involve both a mixture of rapidly swing DEM voters in places like the wealthier 'Burbs of Columbus, combined with high turnout in the Cities, AND regaining those WWC voters that were more than happy to vote for Barrack O'Bama in both '08 and '12 and swung hard Trump in '16....

Yeah, Gahanna and New Albany numbers would be great! Thanks

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’ll have on-the-ground turnout reports after work.  I may also have anecdotals about some combination of Dublin, New Albany, Worthington, Heath (a city in Licking County), and Powell as well, but no promises.  

More anecdotals:
- A friend of mine (registered independent who *very* reluctantly voted for Hillary to stop Trump and whose family lives in Powell and consists of an independent who also reluctantly voted for Hillary and three Republicans, two of whom voted for Trump - the parents - and one of whom wrote-in a Kasich/Gary Johnson ticket of all things) said he’s voting for O’Connor along with everyone in his family except the dad who is voting for Balderson b/c he’s “tough on immigration.”  

- Yard sign report: Three in Gahanna, one in Columbus, and one in Dublin for O’Connor.  I have literally seen only one Balderson sign this cycle and it was in Hilliard (Stivers’ district ).  No non-Franklin County yardsigns for anyone when I drove to The Wilds about a month/3 weeks ago.  A number of houses in Gahanna and New Albany where this is the first major race where I’ve ever seen them without a yard sign for a Republican.  Franklin County is definitely gonna do its part for O’Connor

Full-disclosure: I don’t go to the other (non-Franklin County) parts of the district too often.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Bring on the anecdotal turnout and weather reports

Beautiful weather in Franklin County atm.

jbd, Grandview is entirely within be 15th, not the 12th.

Also two stories.

1: Similar to jbd’s situation, a good family friend of mine in Powell has been canvassed 5 times by the O’Connor campaign. She’s a professor at OSU and a regular Democrat, so I guess they just want to make sure everyone turns out.

2: Per NOVA’s point about Licking looking concernin for O’Connor, I know for a fact that the Denison College Democrats were pleading with the O’Connor campaign to help them get students absentee ballot request forms back in May, and the O’Connor campaign basically shrugged it off at the time. Now, evidently, theyve been scrambling to try and pull more student votes out of Licking, and they’re just not there since school isn’t in.

 My bad, good catch.  Re: Point #2: I agree regarding Licking County just from what I’ve heard anecdotally.  Badger can vouch that I once said O’Connor’s path to victory probably involved losing by less than usual in Licking County.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The weather is still good in Franklin County!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The weather is still good in Franklin County!

No rain in NoFrankCo, blue wave canceled?

Currently projected to have clear skies for the rest of the day

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Clear skies and decent turnout at my precinct.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Guys, those of us with enough common sense to put the dips[inks]ts on full ignore don't have to see any of their commentary - until you mindlessly quote it and break the system. Stop it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

O'Connor still refusing to concede strengthens my belief that he is milking this for all the resistance bucks he can get before they find a new shiny object

What’s that over there?  Oh right, it’s a morality lecture from someone best known for repeatedly, deliberately, and meliciously spreading false domestic violence allegations