OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7
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  OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7
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Author Topic: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7  (Read 107118 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #750 on: August 06, 2018, 06:04:45 PM »

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #751 on: August 06, 2018, 06:25:44 PM »

O'CONNOR IS SCREWED, prove me wrong Ohio and I will be too busy celebrating!
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136or142
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« Reply #752 on: August 06, 2018, 06:33:10 PM »

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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
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« Reply #753 on: August 06, 2018, 06:38:36 PM »

O'CONNOR IS SCREWED, prove me wrong Ohio and I will be too busy celebrating!
Yeah, he needed a 60-40 split in EV'S, the Green Party is too strong, and Franklin needed to be much higher. Likely Balderson and it won't be particularly close. Red avatars here constantly moving goal posts after O'Connor's collapse in EV numbers.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #754 on: August 06, 2018, 06:55:42 PM »

Balderson is a moron https://mobile.twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1026615126613524481
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IceSpear
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« Reply #755 on: August 06, 2018, 07:10:59 PM »

Question for y'all: looks like most people agree Balderson is the slimmest of favorites going into tomorrow. If Balderson wins, is O'Connor screwed in November? If O'Connor wins, does he become the favorite in November?

It depends on the turnout. If this is a super low turnout election, then we’re headed for another tossup. If it’s more normal, Lean D. If Balderson wins, all-but Safe R.

Balderson winning by 1 point would not make the race safe R. For all we know, the political environment could be even better for Democrats in November than it is now. Critz did far better in the special election in 2010 than he did in the general election, where he only narrowly squeaked by.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #756 on: August 06, 2018, 07:11:32 PM »
« Edited: August 06, 2018, 07:30:08 PM by Virginiá »


Buckeyenut is a nut, but he was right turning down this futile job that would have been a waste of time cuz meet your new congressman, SON OF BALDER:

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #757 on: August 06, 2018, 07:13:37 PM »


I see where future congressman Balderson is coming from. I  would rather have O'Connor stayed in the countryside, better for election chances, but oh well.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #758 on: August 06, 2018, 07:28:30 PM »

Whether O'Connor wins or not, the fact it's a photo-finish in a district that should be an easy win for the republicans spells big trouble for them.

Morris's take:



It really would be but the Trump and Republican bragging (even though they have no right to brag with this somewhat pointless race being as close it might be) will be insufferable. Like Massguy said:

If Republicans hold this ditrict: "Where's your "blue wave" libtards? HA HA HA HA"

The media will probably join in with the usual "WHERE IS THEIR MESSAGE?!" schtick.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #759 on: August 06, 2018, 07:49:07 PM »

Franklin County could hits as high as 30% tomorrow https://mobile.twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1026608562892668930
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #760 on: August 06, 2018, 07:57:12 PM »


So what? That's not going to prevent a win by future congressman Balderson.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #761 on: August 06, 2018, 08:13:55 PM »

Whether O'Connor wins or not, the fact it's a photo-finish in a district that should be an easy win for the republicans spells big trouble for them.

Morris's take:



It really would be but the Trump and Republican bragging (even though they have no right to brag with this somewhat pointless race being as close it might be) will be insufferable. Like Massguy said:

If Republicans hold this ditrict: "Where's your "blue wave" libtards? HA HA HA HA"

The media will probably join in with the usual "WHERE IS THEIR MESSAGE?!" schtick.

Pat Tiberi won by 37 points, but the red wave is on the horizon if Balderson wins by 1 point. Smiley

Get ready for these hot takes if he wins, lol.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #762 on: August 06, 2018, 09:13:06 PM »



Bashing the places that will cast well over 50% of the vote (it's possible these two counties are over 60%) is such a great electoral strategy.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #763 on: August 06, 2018, 09:17:49 PM »

OH CD-12 EV Numbers to Date Elsewhere within Franklin Co....

Worthington---- 6.6% of 2016 Vote Share.



EV numbers look atrocious for PUBS even in a City that just recently started voting DEM for PRES in larger numbers in 2012.

Westerville-



This is a City that went +10% Mitt Romney in '12 and DEM margins are +20%, not even including the other vote in Early Voting!!!

I could pull up similar insane numbers for Dublin, etc.... but really I would not be surprised to see final Franklin County SE numbers looking extremely lopsided for O'Connor considering such an extremely poor Republican EV performance in Franklin County, which I suspect is NOT a typical scenario, and also how even relatively historically PUB friendly municipalities are not turning out their voters.

Next I think I'll take a look at the EV numbers by place for Delaware County and match against historical election results, to give us another election weekend teaser....

THANKS AGAIN EBSY!!!!



@ Badger: I now accept my accolades Tongue

Hey man, when did I ever doubt you that Franklin County turnout was going to kick butt for O'Connor? Wink

You were pretty skeptical for a while that O’Connor could win Dublin or Westerville Tongue

I deny any recollection. Tongue

New Albany, yes. I think that hesitancy disappeared when I learned that Hillary actually carried Dublin and Westerville. 

Really no idea where this race is going to go. Nova and Buckeye nut both make excellent points even if they tend to contradict. Tongue

The best I can say is that if O'Connor wins, come November the races at least lean O'Connor. Not even tilt. If he pulls this off, I can't imagine a democratic incumbent being thrown out barring Scandal like circumstances considering what November is likely to look like.

Ok--- since both of you have been paging the Dublin City- 14% of 2016 GE PRES Vote Share!!! results (Franklin County Portion Only), here are the EV numbers as of Yesterday, courtesy of Ebsy's data-set.   Smiley



Is this data bad news for the Democrat or Republican in this Special Election?

Honestly, I'm of slightly split minds on this one....

1.) If O'Connor ekes out a narrow win in CD-12, he will likely need to perform extremely well in Cities like Dublin, compared to any historical Democratic performance at either the Statewide or Presidential level.

2.) Although these EV numbers show the largest Democratic margins ever in Dublin in recent years for a Statewide/Federal Election, I'm still not convinced those numbers will hold up once the ED Vote comes in.

Still, playing Devil's Advocate with myself, we only know the DEM/REP/OTHER on the basis of last Primary Election that the voter participated in.... It's entirely possible that you have Republican voters who last voted in the 2016 GE for Kasich, switched to HRC in the GE, or people that voted PUB in the '18 Primary for Statewide elected offices, that are totally receptive to voting for Danny O'Connor for US-Congress from OH CD-12.

3.) Of course it is entirely possible that Danny O'Connor, who is charismatic and well-known Senior Franklin County elected official might perform quite well in a City called Dublin where 16% of the Population trace their Ancestry directly to Ireland.

Probably making too much of all that, but still it's worthy of some consideration, especially considering the historical nature of the "White Catholic Swing Vote", especially in places like the Upper MidWest.

Any thoughts on final margins in the Dublin City part of Franklin County? I'm thinking O'Connor needs to win it by something like +10% to jack up the margins as part of a buffer against PUB margins in Delaware (Especially considering that Dublin in some ways shares more in common with the Townships of SW Delaware County politically than it does with the Columbus City portions of Franklin County), as well as the inevitable PUB victories in the other Counties within CD-12.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #764 on: August 06, 2018, 09:19:08 PM »

That statement seems to imply that he's counting on doing poorly in the most populous counties and is down to trying to scrape up a narrow win by getting enormous margins out of the rural and/or less populous ones.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #765 on: August 06, 2018, 09:32:49 PM »

That statement seems to imply that he's counting on doing poorly in the most populous counties and is down to trying to scrape up a narrow win by getting enormous margins out of the rural and/or less populous ones.

That's part of the reason I was extremely surprised that Trump shifted his "Media Circus" gig from Licking County to Delaware County, unless their internals are showing poor numbers out of Delaware County, hence the Orange Township appearance.

Last time I remember Trump doing this stunt was in PA CD-18, when he went to Moon Township in South Allegheny County, and it's somewhat questionable as to how well that worked versus Trump having gone to the "Ancestral Dem" Counties of Washington and Greene where Obama was able to do a 50-50, but Trump decimated HRC in '16.

What I mean by this, is that virtually all of the regular posters on Atlas that spend any time on threads like this, know exactly where the Obama '08/'12 > Trump '16 swings occurred. Some of us only track by County, and obviously in larger Metro Areas, devil is in the details because swings can happen both ways in larger population counties, which is why when possible I like to drill down the municipal level.

Honestly, I don't know what thoughts occur within Trump's brain and that of his closest political consultants, but personally if I were to be advising his entry into the OH CD-12 race, I would have sent him into the major Obama '12 > Trump '16 swing portion of the District, and let Balderson deal with the Suburban/Exurban Columbus voters who might well be receptive to voting for a "normal Republican" for US-Congress but still find Trump toxic on a wide range of political, economic, social issues, not to even mention the fundamental character of the Man in terms of how he views his fellow Citizens that he was elected to serve and represent abroad and domestically.

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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #766 on: August 06, 2018, 09:35:16 PM »

More anecdotals: My mom is a registered Republican (voted Kasich in the 2016 primary) and my parents’ house (very wealthy part of Gahanna) has been visited five times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from the Balderson folks.  My aunt and uncle (independent and Republican, respectively) live in a particularly country clubby part of New Albany and have been visited three times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from Balderson’s campaign.  
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #767 on: August 06, 2018, 09:36:09 PM »

More anecdotals: My mom is a registered Republican (voted Kasich in the 2016 primary) and my parents’ house (very wealthy part of Gahanna) has been visited five times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from the Balderson folks.  My aunt and uncle (independent and Republican, respectively) live in a particularly country clubby part of New Albany and have been visited three times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from Balderson’s campaign.  

So what do their ballots look like if they are voting?
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #768 on: August 06, 2018, 09:41:02 PM »

More anecdotals: My mom is a registered Republican (voted Kasich in the 2016 primary) and my parents’ house (very wealthy part of Gahanna) has been visited five times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from the Balderson folks.  My aunt and uncle (independent and Republican, respectively) live in a particularly country clubby part of New Albany and have been visited three times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from Balderson’s campaign.  

So what do their ballots look like if they are voting?

All O’Connor (along with one of my cousins who is also a Republican) except for my uncle who isn’t going to vote because while he doesn’t like Balderson, he’ll never support a Democrat.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #769 on: August 06, 2018, 09:42:41 PM »

More anecdotals: My mom is a registered Republican (voted Kasich in the 2016 primary) and my parents’ house (very wealthy part of Gahanna) has been visited five times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from the Balderson folks.  My aunt and uncle (independent and Republican, respectively) live in a particularly country clubby part of New Albany and have been visited three times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from Balderson’s campaign.  

So what do their ballots look like if they are voting?

All O’Connor (along with one of my cousins who is also a Republican) except for my uncle who isn’t going to vote because while he doesn’t like Balderson, he’ll never support a Democrat.

Oh nice, kudos to all of yall, even the one who sat it out, better than a ballot for balderson!
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #770 on: August 06, 2018, 09:42:44 PM »

More anecdotals: My mom is a registered Republican (voted Kasich in the 2016 primary) and my parents’ house (very wealthy part of Gahanna) has been visited five times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from the Balderson folks.  My aunt and uncle (independent and Republican, respectively) live in a particularly country clubby part of New Albany and have been visited three times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from Balderson’s campaign.  

So what do their ballots look like if they are voting?

All O’Connor (along with one of my cousins who is also a Republican) except for my uncle who isn’t going to vote because while he doesn’t like Balderson, he’ll never support a Democrat.
Seems like O'Connor voters are more motivated than Balderson voters, even though the supposed "Sleeper Red Wave" is at stake here.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #771 on: August 06, 2018, 09:47:06 PM »

I am convinced O’Connor’s got this.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #772 on: August 06, 2018, 09:59:33 PM »

More anecdotals: My mom is a registered Republican (voted Kasich in the 2016 primary) and my parents’ house (very wealthy part of Gahanna) has been visited five times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from the Balderson folks.  My aunt and uncle (independent and Republican, respectively) live in a particularly country clubby part of New Albany and have been visited three times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from Balderson’s campaign.  

Do you want me to post the numbers from Gahanna and New Albany with EV numbers as of Yesterday (Courtesy of Ebsy.... Smiley    )    Huh?

Although I lived in Ohio for Four Years 20+ Years ago in College, I was basically 20 Minutes from Dayton and 50 Minutes from both Columbus and Cinci, so don't pretend to have any of detailed knowledge of the State from a local perspective anymore, although I remember how excited the College Students on my campus were when Bill Clinton won Ohio in '92 (First time in '64???).

What I *suspect* we might be seeing in Metro Columbus (Based upon '08 > '16 PRES results) is a pattern that we observed for the first time in recent American Electoral History in some of the major Metro areas of the West Coast back in '88 (Seattle, Portland, Bay Area Suburbs) where suburban voters started to identify more with the residents of the "City" as opposed to the traditional City/Suburban political, social, and economic divide.

It's early on yet, but we are starting to see in the heavily Ancestral Republican suburbs of North Franklin County (Including the City of Columbus proper) move heavily Democratic at the Presidential Level.

We have yet to see these types of movements at other Federal Elections (With a few exceptions and a few Cities), let alone see the impact at down-ballot Statewide Races where the Republican Coalition still holds strong, and the Democratic Coalition is much more dependent upon large turnouts in the Cities, Ancestral White Union Democrats throughout, swing voters in the 'Burbs, and keeping margins down in the Rurals, especially in places like SE OH.

Still, at the end of the day a "New Democratic Winning Coalition" in Ohio will inherently involve both a mixture of rapidly swing DEM voters in places like the wealthier 'Burbs of Columbus, combined with high turnout in the Cities, AND regaining those WWC voters that were more than happy to vote for Barrack O'Bama in both '08 and '12 and swung hard Trump in '16....
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #773 on: August 06, 2018, 10:01:06 PM »

More anecdotals: My mom is a registered Republican (voted Kasich in the 2016 primary) and my parents’ house (very wealthy part of Gahanna) has been visited five times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from the Balderson folks.  My aunt and uncle (independent and Republican, respectively) live in a particularly country clubby part of New Albany and have been visited three times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from Balderson’s campaign.  

Do you want me to post the numbers from Gahanna and New Albany with EV numbers as of Yesterday (Courtesy of Ebsy.... Smiley    )    Huh?

Although I lived in Ohio for Four Years 20+ Years ago in College, I was basically 20 Minutes from Dayton and 50 Minutes from both Columbus and Cinci, so don't pretend to have any of detailed knowledge of the State from a local perspective anymore, although I remember how excited the College Students on my campus were when Bill Clinton won Ohio in '92 (First time in '64???).

What I *suspect* we might be seeing in Metro Columbus (Based upon '08 > '16 PRES results) is a pattern that we observed for the first time in recent American Electoral History in some of the major Metro areas of the West Coast back in '88 (Seattle, Portland, Bay Area Suburbs) where suburban voters started to identify more with the residents of the "City" as opposed to the traditional City/Suburban political, social, and economic divide.

It's early on yet, but we are starting to see in the heavily Ancestral Republican suburbs of North Franklin County (Including the City of Columbus proper) move heavily Democratic at the Presidential Level.

We have yet to see these types of movements at other Federal Elections (With a few exceptions and a few Cities), let alone see the impact at down-ballot Statewide Races where the Republican Coalition still holds strong, and the Democratic Coalition is much more dependent upon large turnouts in the Cities, Ancestral White Union Democrats throughout, swing voters in the 'Burbs, and keeping margins down in the Rurals, especially in places like SE OH.

Still, at the end of the day a "New Democratic Winning Coalition" in Ohio will inherently involve both a mixture of rapidly swing DEM voters in places like the wealthier 'Burbs of Columbus, combined with high turnout in the Cities, AND regaining those WWC voters that were more than happy to vote for Barrack O'Bama in both '08 and '12 and swung hard Trump in '16....

Yeah, Gahanna and New Albany numbers would be great! Thanks Smiley
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Gass3268
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« Reply #774 on: August 06, 2018, 10:45:36 PM »



He's another big time on the ground Ohio guy who thinks tomorrow will be good for Democrats.
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