2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[jravnsbo]

Edwards is dead int he water, if he was ever started.

He is trailing Bush in his home state of NC by a wide margin and would offer little to a ticket, let alone nominee.

I agree somewhat with what you say about a candidate's region, and if Edwards were to get the nomination that could spell trouble in the South for Bush, especially since Bush seems to stray further to the center and away from the right wing with his policies.  I think Edwards is the most likeable and electable candidate of all the Democratic nominees.  But, does not look like he will get the nomination though.

[jravnsbo]

Dean is still way ahead in NH.  Clark has justy passed Kery but sutill is 20 pts behind Dean.

Don't you love how the news continues to make news?

[jravnsbo]

only 300 votes different in 2000, plus GOP picked upa  house seat there i believe.

Still think it would have went GOP if FL wasn't called early, as many have specualted nationally.

Arizona-Went for Bush 51-45% despite Gore not campaigning there.  Likely Republican 2004 but not out of reach.

Colorado-Denver is liberal as hell, but the rest of the state is very conservative, so Republican for the near future.

New Mexico-Has gone Dem in recent Presidential Elections but drifting republican.  Will only go dem is Richardson is VP.

[jravnsbo]

i was talking NM, in response to the post about it.  See I quoted it.

[jravnsbo]

Illinois- just wait until they get to know Dean!  and his unfavorables are already aheado f his favorable, not a good sign for him.

[jravnsbo]

Didn't the Democrat WV gov say he wasn't running again b/c of an affair or soemthing?

The GOP might be able to make WV less of a one party state, I won't deny that, but that's about it.
I think that you lot have a good chance at making FL a GOP fortress though...

[jravnsbo]

GOP could make hay out of that, running against corruption and bad policies in the state government for gov.  Just like Dems will be able to do in CT in 2006 and GOP did in KY this year with Gov Patton's sex scandal.

If people want that change it can result in more GOP votes across the board.  Just something to look for.

Didn't the Democrat WV gov say he wasn't running again b/c of an affair or soemthing?

Officially yes.
Actually Wise isn't running for re-election because as a result of his affair he was going to suffer the humilation of losing in the Democratic Primary...

[jravnsbo]

Dean does have that problem with Jewish voters.  Also with Jewish voters, one would imagine theey always want a President that is Strong on the defense of Israel or at least protectionist of them.  Does Dean fit that bill?  He was againbst getting rid of Saddam, which did make ISrael safer.  No more Scuds coming there way or tyrannt paying for suicide bombers.  Also Bush has been taken the game right at the enemies of Israel and would definately be seen as strong.  

Not sure about NY, but I'm sure this will help him among Jewish voters.

[jravnsbo]

Disgraceful-- I have a few other names for them, like murderous terrostic thugs to be nice!

<<On a related issue, Israel supporters here were listening when Dean said we "shouldn't take sides in the Middle East".>>
I'm Jewish, and I am not offended by the remark and do not know anyone who is.  I'm sure some people are though.

How about calling members of Hamas "soldiers"?

[jravnsbo]

Also in FL, which seems to be getting better all the time for President Bush.

Dean does have that problem with Jewish voters.  Also with Jewish voters, one would imagine theey always want a President that is Strong on the defense of Israel or at least protectionist of them.  Does Dean fit that bill?  He was againbst getting rid of Saddam, which did make ISrael safer.  No more Scuds coming there way or tyrannt paying for suicide bombers.  Also Bush has been taken the game right at the enemies of Israel and would definately be seen as strong.  

Not sure about NY, but I'm sure this will help him among Jewish voters.

There's no question that if the contest is Bush-Dean, there will never be a starker contrast between two candidates on the issue of support for Israel.

The rise in anti-Semitism on the European left is another reason that more Jews are feeling uncomfortable with Euro-American multilateralism on matters regarding the Middle East.

I'd say that if the Democrat is anti-war or has a muddy position, we're going to see an accelerated erosion of the Democratic Jewish vote. With two million Jews in New York City, that's gotta matter.

[jravnsbo]

either one would be a huge win for GOP>

MN will be close, like it usually is, although I think it leans Democrat as there isn't going to be a strong Greenie standing this year.
The GOP can only win if turnout is low in strongly Democrat areas.
I actually think that the GOP have a better chance at winning in Wisconsin than MN.

[jravnsbo]

Besides politics I always have the "4 year test" can I stand to have this person speak to me for 4 years from the Oval office.  Gore failed that test with me.  

By far not the only factor for me, but sit back , close your eyes and visualize each candidate addressingthe nation and see if they fit the job.

[jravnsbo]

But Bush is doing the job and shows he can, he has already checked this block.

[jravnsbo]

I think i got your point, but you are missing a few words

But Bush is doing the job and shows he can, he has already checked this block.

Hm, I am still not convinced. He is allright as a texas governor or an oil tycoon, but I wouldn't really want him to be my president. Which he isn't, so I guess I shouldn't complain too much...

Haha...
The only Dem is would have trouble voting for is Kerry.

[jravnsbo]

Reread your own sentence, to get what i am saying.




The only Dem is would have trouble voting for is Kerry

[jravnsbo]

Hey no problem.  Call me on it.  Mine is b/c I type fast usually.  I really didn't know what he meant for a bit.

Reread your own sentence, to get what i am saying.




The only Dem is would have trouble voting for is Kerry

Look who's talking! If there is anyone on this forum (except for trolls of course) who does that it's you! ()No offense, JR)

[jravnsbo]

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/


good site with lots of political info.

[jravnsbo]

Agcat- we need your support.  Could you check out the IMPORTANT Thread registrationa dn simply post "I register" to register as  voter for the fantasy elections, thanks.

Yep.

[jravnsbo]

very encouraging news from Michigan!

Michigan Voters give the President a 63% Approval rating and 77% Approve Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm (+/- 5% according to a Detroit News 1/19/2004 poll).

[jravnsbo]

drove Gov now President Bush around IA for a day during 2000 campaign.

Oh and met Bush 41 when he was VP and came to my high school.

As an Iowan to a New Hampsh**te, I pass on the mantle of the "local"

Have 'fun'

I met Bill Bradley at work in 2000. Pretty neat.

[jravnsbo]

that could be a while, the dems don't know who it will be now.

I'm not making any more predictions until I am have some idea of who the Dem. nominee is going to be.

[jravnsbo]

Wide open yet and My dream scenario was a slugfest with Dean winning it.  Well looks like they may slug it out a bit, dean looks weakened but will not go out quietly, he has 48 more states to shout out and head to!

that could be a while, the dems don't know who it will be now.

I'm not making any more predictions until I am have some idea of who the Dem. nominee is going to be.

Exactly, that's why I'm not making any for the general election.  I predicted it would be BushvDean and Dean would get slaughtered, now there is a STRONG chance he may not tbe the nominee.  He still could be, but for now I'll hold judgment.

Alas, we Republicans are going to have to let go of our boy Dean.  It would've been lovely, but he's not going to make it.  In fact we'll be darn lucky if we get Kerry.  The worst one is Edwards, and as a pessimist, I would guess we'll get him.  He's beatable, as a left-wing trial lawyer, but his appearance and youth are all that will matter to an awfully lot of the emptier-headed voters.  But I'm still holding out hope for Kerry.

[jravnsbo]

Always thought we would have to.  That is why we have been registering 3 million people in key states, raising money like mad and I've been out registering real people also.

Dean is finished.  too bad guys, you might just have to work for this one.

[jravnsbo]

Yes I did see that on rollacall.  It follows upa  report that campuses are starting to trend GOP.  Excellent!

If people realize that the GOP is a good party, before they grow older and realize how much of their taxes the Democrats want to take, all the better.

Hello all:  

Its been quite some time since I last posted, and Kerry winning Iowa was a shock to me.  Anyway, two days ago I found an article from the Drudge Report that I think all of you should read so I shall post it here:

YOUNG VOTERS SAID TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS BUSH
 
Date:  Tuesday, January 20, 2004  

Morton Kondracke in fresh ROLL CALL:

"Here's a harrowing pair of facts for Democrats:  In 60 years, no Democrat has ever won the presidency without carrying the youth vote.  And right now President Bush's approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds is 62 percent, higher than his nationwide rating.  Top Republican strategists admit that the youth vote is fluid, but right now the trends are all in their direction, which they hope is a harbinger not only for 2004, but also a possible longer-term party realignment."

A Bush campaign official said, "Its called the history of political socialization.  Who are the most Democratic people in America? It's the over-65 age group.  Why? Because two presidents they knew best were Franklin Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover.  And who are the most Republican? People in their forties, who came of age in the last two years of Jimmy Carter and the first two years of Ronald Reagan.  If your politics were being formed during the last two years of Bill Clinton and the first two years of George Bush, there's a farily good chance that we'll have your support ."

Kondracke writes, "It seems impossible that a generation reared on free-love television and rap music, a generation far more tolerant of ethnic diversity and homosexuality than its elders, could support the GOP, whose base is anchored in the religious right.  In fact, Demcratic theorists such as Ruy Teixeira, John Judis, and Stan Greenburg look upon the expanded role of minorities, cosmopolitan regions, and diversity-minded young people to produce an 'emerging Democratic majority' through the force of demography.  

"But, at the moment, the numbers support the view of GOP leaders that young people are trending Republican because they like Bush."

END  - www. drudgereport.com/flash4.htm    

That's that.

I encourage any responses to this posting.  
Sleep tight and vote for Howard Dean.


So long from the Empire State.

[jravnsbo]

latest poll has Dean within 3-4%, zogby one.  

Lots of polls out there though.

I think Dean willa t least be 2d.  Kerry likely to win yet, and a battle for 3-5, with Clark falling fast.

welcome Nick.