Ohio redistricting thread

[Vosem]

One question I have is originally, I thought this new map is in place for 4 years since it failed to get bipartisan support, but it seems like consensus is there will be a redraw for 2024. Can someone explain what’s going on here.

Yes. Under the normal laws, if the state legislature fails to pass a bipartisan map, then the map holds only for 4 years and gets redrawn after 2 cycles. However, the map passed by the state legislature was (repeatedly) overturned by the state Supreme Court, with orders for the legislature to draw a new map. Eventually, after there wasn't time left to redraw the map again and Republicans had made substantial concessions, federal courts stepped in and ordered the map the state legislature had passed used, but only for the 2022 cycle; the old state Supreme Court order to redraw the lines remains in effect for 2024.

Republicans could presumably ask the new state Supreme Court to forgive this obligation (and if they don't meet it, the new state Supreme Court would probably order the current lines reused), but they haven't done so, probably because they expect to pass better, and perhaps substantially better, lines for the GOP before 2024. The agreement in the state House with the Democrats kind of puts all of this into question, because it's kind of inconceivable that Democrats would've agreed to back a Speaker without some sort of redistricting concessions, but the new Speaker was a hardliner on redistricting (vocal 13-2 supporter!) in the recent past, so nobody's sure what's going on. If concessions were made, they were probably made on the state House maps, since the Democrats negotiating have a personal interest in those.

My understanding from before the deal was that after the election the likeliest maps were 12-3, with a sink in Hamilton to go with the Cuyahoga and Franklin ones, but Sykes (especially) and Kaptur (kinda) put into significantly redder seats. That said, Sykes is a former leader of the Ohio state House Democrats and Kaptur has significant ties with congressional Republicans, so both of them might have ways to negotiate. (Peak stupid -- but which I could imagine, and would probably inspire a new redistricting referendum -- is a map where Sykes and Kaptur don't get worse seats, but Hamilton gets cut into pieces to try to doom Landsman, the OH Democrat with the least clout and worst relationship with the GOP).

[Vosem]

If the Ohio supreme court sides with the republicans. It means the map stays in place 2 additional years right ?

No; it means that many of the opinions from 2021 get overturned and the GOP could enact a map like the previously enacted proposal, though it's unclear that they have the numbers to enact something like this again in the state House. (This specific map is also a non-starter because it puts Miller and Sykes together in a seat which is only Leans R -- the NEOH lines would have to change, but it would certainly be possible to screw over Sykes pretty hard. On this map Landsman's seat is redder than on the real map but still notionally blue, but this map was enacted with some moderate components to try to please the old Court, so it might be that a new map would draw a notionally-red-in-2022 seat.)

[Vosem]

ProgressiveModerate's northeast Ohio configuration looks a lot like what I can imagine the Republicans ultimately adopting, but you drew Latta out of his seat, which he is unreasonably protective of, and you gave Wenstrup a much more competitive seat that I imagine he will fight like hell not to take. If the Hamilton County seat is going to move red, it's going to be placed with Warren, which it was with over the last decade, rather than with the counties to its immediate east, however much more 'clean' the latter plan seems to be.

[Vosem]

X, Vosem Badger what do you guys think? Will the court allow this?

Allow what?  A plaintiff can drop its lawsuit any time it wants; the Court has no say in that part.

So does that mean the current map will remain in place I would assume?

This particular lawsuit was an effort from Democratic-aligned groups to get the court to unilaterally adopt, or force the legislature to adopt, maps those groups would consider fairer. It was never very likely to succeed in its goals.

If the legislature does not redistrict, then the current maps will continue to be used. They have to redistrict for 2026 under the terms of Ohio's anti-gerrymandering rules, although my guess is that if they fail again then the courts would just use the current maps again.

Plaintiffs can always drop their suits if they wish. No court has any right to force anybody to continue suing someone.