Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Non Swing Voter]

Monmouth poll had high rates of approval for vaccine mandates, mask mandates, masking in schools, etc., so.... not great for Youngkin.

It's fair to say that running in Virginia is not great for Youngkin.  He should take his sideshow down to North Carolina.

[Torrain]

Monmouth poll had high rates of approval for vaccine mandates, mask mandates, masking in schools, etc., so.... not great for Youngkin.

It's fair to say that running in Virginia is not great for Youngkin.  He should take his sideshow down to North Carolina.

To be fair, I’d much rather Youngkin was the GOP gubernatorial candidate in NC than Pat McCrory or Mark Robinson.

[Non Swing Voter]

Monmouth poll had high rates of approval for vaccine mandates, mask mandates, masking in schools, etc., so.... not great for Youngkin.

It's fair to say that running in Virginia is not great for Youngkin.  He should take his sideshow down to North Carolina.

To be fair, I’d much rather Youngkin was the GOP gubernatorial candidate in NC than Pat McCrory or Mark Robinson.

Well yeah, the further south you go... I'm sure McCrory would be an upgrade for whoever is running in South Carolina, etc.

[jamestroll]

Will we reach 100 pages? We aren't even at 50 yet..

[Non Swing Voter]

Will we reach 100 pages? We aren't even at 50 yet..

It's 2 months from the election so yes.  It will probably get 20 pages on election night alone.

[wbrocks67]

Trumpkin's campaign has truly been awful.

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1436698805127290886

[MT Treasurer]

Ah, yes, Ben Tribbett, noted objective observer of VA politics since the early 2000s.

Up next: Tim Kaine calling Youngkin's campaign "awful."

[wbrocks67]

Ah, yes, Ben Tribbett, noted objective observer of VA politics since the early 2000s.

Who posted it has no relevance on the content.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Youngkin put his campaign logo on a f**king 9/11 remembrance post.

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1436669527668965380?s=20

[Non Swing Voter]

Youngkin: The most god awful general election campaign I've ever seen.  I'm guessing he gets it to within 8 points by Election Day based on the ridiculous spending he's obviously doing, but JFC what a waste of money. 

The only two people in America who think his campaign has been competent are MT Treasurer (thinks Arlington is located in Fairfax county) and THG (no parenthetical necessary).

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1437768503499575298

lmao

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1437768503499575298

lmao

T Mac has run one of the most flawless campaigns I've seen in this state.  It should theoretically be a good year for Republicans but given T Mac's campaign versus the atrocious "campaign" (if you can call it that at this point) of Youngkin, this could be a larger win than expected. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

[jamestroll]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

[Non Swing Voter]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

Not sure how that is possible.  He does have a lot of signs, he had them in the GOP "primary" as well.  But I see more TMac signs.  Are you only driving through exclusive parts of Great Falls or something?

[jamestroll]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

Not sure how that is possible.  He does have a lot of signs, he had them in the GOP "primary" as well.  But I see more TMac signs.  Are you only driving through exclusive parts of Great Falls or something?

Oakton, Fairfax, Tysons, Vienna are where I am the most.

[Canis]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

From my experience in Cali, a lot of campaigns have stopped using Signs as they often become litter and don't break down and are horrible for the environment and the data on signs is that they don't help a campaign at all for how much they cost to produce. So the lack of T-Mac signs maybe because he's not using any. Also, Republican campaigns use signs a lot and they often don't ask for permission to put them up so who knows how much of those signs are people buying them and putting them up instead of campaign volunteers just putting them up on their own. I've seen a few Elder signs and some Yes signs but I know where I live is gonna vote massively against the recall just due to how democratic leaning my area is. I saw an equal amount of Trump and Biden signs before the election and Biden won my area 69-29 basically.

[Non Swing Voter]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

Not sure how that is possible.  He does have a lot of signs, he had them in the GOP "primary" as well.  But I see more TMac signs.  Are you only driving through exclusive parts of Great Falls or something?

Oakton, Fairfax, Tysons, Vienna are where I am the most.

There are Terry signs allover Tysons and Vienna. 

[jamestroll]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

Not sure how that is possible.  He does have a lot of signs, he had them in the GOP "primary" as well.  But I see more TMac signs.  Are you only driving through exclusive parts of Great Falls or something?

Oakton, Fairfax, Tysons, Vienna are where I am the most.

There are Terry signs allover Tysons and Vienna. 

Where??? Literally every single house on some streets in Vienna have youngkin signs.

[Non Swing Voter]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

Not sure how that is possible.  He does have a lot of signs, he had them in the GOP "primary" as well.  But I see more TMac signs.  Are you only driving through exclusive parts of Great Falls or something?

Oakton, Fairfax, Tysons, Vienna are where I am the most.

There are Terry signs allover Tysons and Vienna. 

Where??? Literally every single house on some streets in Vienna have youngkin signs.

Well I don't exactly peruse all the streets of Vienna but I've definitely seen Tmac signs.  The Youngkin signs are just bigger, redder, and thus more noticeable.  In terms of Tysons if you drive on the Leesburg pike towards the mall you will see a lot of T Mac signs.  Lots of signs in and around McLean too.  Obviously Reston and other more urbanized spots are going to be all T Mac.  Plus like you said, the high rise buildings are going to have tons of T Mac voters.

Based on todays results in CA it's safe to say that Fairfax is going to vote for Terry by an extremely wide margin, which means Youngkin's pathetic waste of money vanity campaign has no chance.

[wbrocks67]

Hotline Josh at it again.

This analysis isn't even factually correct, given that Morning Consult just had a poll out this week that has 6 in 10 adults agreeing with Biden's new vaccine mandates.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1438109088970264580

[beaver2.0]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

Not sure how that is possible.  He does have a lot of signs, he had them in the GOP "primary" as well.  But I see more TMac signs.  Are you only driving through exclusive parts of Great Falls or something?

I think I see more Youngkin signs between Alexandria and Fort Hunt.  Now that may be confirmation bias at work, but I'll try to take a count today.

[jamestroll]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

Not sure how that is possible.  He does have a lot of signs, he had them in the GOP "primary" as well.  But I see more TMac signs.  Are you only driving through exclusive parts of Great Falls or something?

I think I see more Youngkin signs between Alexandria and Fort Hunt.  Now that may be confirmation bias at work, but I'll try to take a count today.

There are streets in extreme biden areas that literally every house has a youngkin sign lol

[Pollster]

Yard signs as a campaign tactic are intended to increase the perception of social acceptability for supporting the candidate - the idea is that they reinforce the idea that "you are not alone."

The data do show that this does tend to have non-negligible effects on independent/non-ideological voters who live in highly partisan areas, which is why you will often see R signs in D areas, and vice versa. There is some great writing about how Doug Jones' 2017 campaign made great use of this tactic in the Birmingham suburbs and Mobile area.

Data also show that they are far more effective in local races and ballot measure campaigns.

[Non Swing Voter]

Yard signs as a campaign tactic are intended to increase the perception of social acceptability for supporting the candidate - the idea is that they reinforce the idea that "you are not alone."

The data do show that this does tend to have non-negligible effects on independent/non-ideological voters who live in highly partisan areas, which is why you will often see R signs in D areas, and vice versa. There is some great writing about how Doug Jones' 2017 campaign made great use of this tactic in the Birmingham suburbs and Mobile area.

Data also show that they are far more effective in local races and ballot measure campaigns.

I dunno, I saw a lot of Trump signs in Fairfax county in 2020 and he got walloped worse than any Republican in a long time there.  I suppose you could argue he would have been walloped worse but how would we know.