How many incumbent Republican Senators get Tea Partied out?

[morgieb]

Cochran. He's in the low 40s this far out and Pubs want someone more conservative by a 20pp margin. Same numbers as Lugar. Cornyn and Enzi definitely not, Alexander maybe.

TX Republicans also want someone more conservative than Cornyn by a 20 point margin.

Stockman is far more of a joke than McDaniel is though IMO.

[morgieb]

If Stockman does primary Cornyn, can we kick Texas out of the Union?

[morgieb]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

The difference is that as of now there is no viable Democrat running in MS unlike in IN or MO.

I'm guessing that most people think that Travis Childers (who as an ex-white Congressman is definitely a viable candidate) will run.

Harry raises some valid points, though I still think Mississippi would be no worse than a toss-up for any Republican.