How many incumbent Republican Senators get Tea Partied out?

[7,052,770]

Cochran and McConnell seem like they're in the most danger, but recent polling looks like Alexander may be too.  Graham, Cornyn, Enzi, and Collins are plausibly vulnerable.

I'll be cautious and say 2, but it's more likely to be 3 than 1.

[7,052,770]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

[7,052,770]

You really think McDaniel cannot win? In Mississippi? Under any circumstances?

Sure he could win. I'm just extremely skeptical that he can hold it together for a whole year. The guy is a loose cannon and is despised by the Republican establishment.  They'll be digging and baiting him through the primary, and if he makes it through it, the national Democratic Party will take over the digging and baiting.

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

While they might seem close on paper, they really aren't. Mississippi voters are inelastic.

While Mississippi voters are certainly less elastic than most states in presidential elections, we're talking about a state that as recently as 2008 elected 2 Democrats to Congress in overwhelmingly white Republican districts. 

Plus, McDaniel is nowhere close to your typical Republican.  A typical Republican office holder like Stacey Pickering would beat Childers by 10 points or more.  This reminds me of the Personhood Amendment -- the absurdly terrible proposal to ban abortion and birth control and make police investigate miscarriages.  Everyone was certain it would pass because "It's Mississippi!" but it actually failed 60-40 because it was that terrible.

[7,052,770]

Republicans in Mississippi are far more inelastic than they are in either of those, regardless of the Presidential numbers.

Again, due to the quality of candidates, Mississippi districts with PVI of R+16 and R+21 elected Democrats to Congress as late as 2008.  And despite Mississippi's reputation as a conservative, anti-abortion state, it soundly rejected an abortion ban in 2011 because of the wording.

No one is arguing that Cochran could lose in the general, or that a legitimate Republican like Reeves, Pickering, or even Gregg Harper would lose the Senate race to any Democrat.  But McDaniel is not like that. He's Akin times Mourdock plus Angle.  I think a lot of posters on this thread just aren't grasping how much of a joke McDaniel is.

In Congressional races, Mississippian Republicans have voted for good Democratic candidates over terrible Republican ones.  It is not out of the question that (after 6 more years of favorable demographic drift), one of those same 2 Democrats who already beat a terrible Republican candidate in an overwhelmingly white Republican district could beat another terrible Republican candidate in a statewide race, when the state as a whole is less Republican that MS-1.

[7,052,770]

It's like a broken record here...  Yet again, those "elasticity" numbers are based on presidential elections.  If Mississippi is so impossibly inelastic for the Republicans, how do you explain Mississippi's two most Republican house districts electing Democrats as late as 2008?

Yes, those were good Democratic candidates vs. poor Republican candidates.  And that's precisely what Childers vs. McDaniel would be.