Which is most likely to happen?

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Option 2 obviously, but still only about 30% chance.

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Jindal is leading by 31 points!  Bershear is leading by 23!

There hasn't yet been a real Mississippi poll yet, but Barbour's lead won't be that big...

[7,052,770]

There hasn't yet been a real Mississippi poll yet, but Barbour's lead won't be that big...

So? That doesn't mean that Barbour is going to lose, there is almost no way he can lose. While in the other races there are chances that they could lose (though unlikely). And I know you're going to respond that Barbour will lose just like Lott was supposed to lose according to you.

I've never once stated that Barbour will lose, so please don't put words in my mouth.  I do believe he has a better chance of losing than Jindal or Bershear though.  Those are pretty much locks; Barbour could plausibly lose if Eaves succeeds in getting enough of the Religious Right to come over to him (lately, he's been hitting Barbour on allowing the casinos to move onto land, which Barbour promised he'd never do).

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This is totally off-topic, but why do so many people misspell "Beshear?"

Weird, all this time I thought it was "Bershear"...