Ontario Election 2022

[CumbrianLefty]

A better comparison for NES might actually be Ralph Goodale. The guy just kept winning and winning in a province where being a Liberal candidate usually only wins you a participation trophy. Of course, he kept winning until he lost. Being in Trudeau's cabinet did him no favours in Regina.

Anyway, back to OnPoli. An interesting by-product of the 2018 election is that universal swings are gonna be really bad at predicting Liberal strength. In 2018, personal brand played a big role in the few ridings where the Liberals didn't get absolutely humiliated.

For example, 338Canada says Eglinton-Lawrence will be the 5th most Liberal-friendly seat in the 416, that Mississauga-Lakeshore is the most Liberal-friendly seat in Mississauga, and that Oakville is more likely to go Liberal than Ajax.

Obviously, universal swings are never perfect, but the ridings I mentioned are typically much less Liberal than their surroundings. Expect to see some really bad riding projections this time out.

I think looking at history of riding and demographics as well as issues of day probably a better predictor than uniform swing.  Uniform swing largely a British thing anyways where it seemed to work in past although they now use a thing called MRP, but those polls are expensive and usually survey 10K to 20K thus why they can accurately call ridings.  I don't believe anyone is willing to pay a pollster that much.  They probably do this for parties, which cost a lot of money, but never public.

MRP is a polling method designed to provide you with those more accurate demographic projections. Uniform Swing doesn't have anything to do with the way the polls are carried out. And on the point of public polls, the YouGov MRP was probably the biggest poll of the 2017 election - and memorable as being the only actual pollster who was remotely correct (other than the Exit Poll itself, if you want to count that).

Survation says hi.

Most notable is that both were openly laughed at in public by certain other pollsters - at least a few of whom almost went out of business due to the scale of their polling failure then.

[CumbrianLefty]

I just love that Ontarians reacting with the normal "I'm leaving" decleration keep naming more right wing places like Alberta or Sasketchwan as their destination.

Do lots of people still think Sask is innately left wing?

Alberta *is* going that way tbf, but from a distinctly right wing starting point.

[CumbrianLefty]

Was the PC candidate in Thornhill even Jewish? Might not be with a name like Smith. Do you think some Jews didn't show up because of this?

There are some Jews named Smith including former Ontario Liberal leader Stuart Smith

It really needs to be remembered that far from all Jews have "obviously" Jewish names.