UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Shot:

“Putting up corporation tax at a time when we’re trying to attract investment to this country isn’t going to deliver growth. We need to be competitive”. - Liz Truss, 20th September.

Chaser:
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1580864760073326593

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1580868139692134400

[Torrain]

The fact we're going to have our fourth chancellor in 4 months* is just insane. The Conservatives can now barely govern themselves, let alone the country.

*Sunak, Zahawi, Kwarteng, ___.

[Torrain]

Need to double-check some of the dates, but assuming we end up with a new chancellor (and not a retread) I think Rachel Reeves has equalled Harold Wilson and John Smith for 'most chancellors shadowed' at four.

Good chance she breaks the record at this rate - she's only been in position for one year, compared to the 4-5 years the others served in the shadow cabinet.

[Torrain]

While we're doing weird chancellor statistics - the Conservatives have now had more Chancellors in 2022, than Labour have had in total since 1967.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1580868139692134400

Last thirty seconds of Brief Encounter playing out in the Truss–O'Leary household this afternoon, I'm sure.

The remake we probably deserve for electing*this omnishambles, but not the one anyone wanted.

*Sort of. Technically. 

[Torrain]

Rumour doing the rounds (via the Times news team) is now that Truss will clear out most/all of the juniour Treasury ministers too, and that Hunt is the frontrunner to become Chancellor.

Not sure whether even Jeremy Hunt wants to take on that most poisoned of chalices.

[Torrain]

Presented without context:

[Torrain]

Rumour doing the rounds (via the Times news team) is now that Truss will clear out most/all of the juniour Treasury ministers too, and that Hunt is the frontrunner to become Chancellor.

Not sure whether even Jeremy Hunt wants to take on that most poisoned of chalices.

Any chance the sociopath Simon "fool's paradise" Clarke gets junked as well?

Haven't seen anything about that, unfortunately. Clarke is one of the few true believers in Truss as PM, so I get the feeling he'll cling on in cabinet, like Dorries did with Johnson. There was a time when he was talked about as a replacement chancellor (particularly when Sunak resigned -as he was no.2 at the Treasury for much of Sunak's tenure), but thankfully he seems to be too close to Trussonomics 1.0 for that to happen now.

[Torrain]

Hunt in as Chancellor - will be announced at the press conference:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1580898615647617025

I look forward to the wave of freudian slips (and Ofcom complaints) that will greet this announcement.

[Torrain]

This sets Hunt up to be the caretaker during a leadership election.

Yeah - short of a Truss-level screw-up (which you definitely can't rule out with Hunt), he's in the big leagues for the rest of this parliament.
Literally got a "Caretaker PM?" text or two from family when the announcement came through.

Even if the reported Sunak-Mordaunt coup were to somehow happen next week, I think PM Sunak, Mordaunt at FCD Office and Hunt at Treasury is the median outcome, to try and project a modicum of stability.

[Torrain]

Truss speech is... very Truss. Full five minutes of "growing up in Leeds made me a libertarian, and I've got a mandate to cut all of the taxes", before she swerved into the u-turn.

[Torrain]

First three questions - from the Telegraph, Sun, and BBC, all asking whether Truss will resign, with BBC's Chris Mason directly asking whether she has any remaining credibility. Followed up by Peston quoting former Conservative chancellors who've said she's 'trashed the party's reputation' on the economy.

Truss hasn't given a straight answer, or admitted any real culpability to any of the issues. She then ran away, having only taken four questions.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1580920454713573376

[Torrain]

In order to avoid speaking to reporters as he arrived home Jeremy Hunt briefly shut his wife out of the house.

[Torrain]

Here we go...
https://twitter.com/SimonClarkeMP/status/1580942174237077504

[Torrain]

Here we go...
https://twitter.com/SimonClarkeMP/status/1580942174237077504

Zahawi seems to be going out to bat for her as well, once again showcasing his dreadful political judgement.

Maybe he hopes to be next week's chancellor? Incredible how adept he is at backing the wrong horse (*insert heating stables using parliamentary expenses joke here*).

[Torrain]

Here we go...
https://twitter.com/SimonClarkeMP/status/1580942174237077504

Over/under on Brady announcing today that 178 has been hit out-of-nowhere?

Nvm, they've answered my question:

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1580949356324102144

Man - that's impressively bad for the government.

[Torrain]

I mean, this is UK General Discussion, not just the Conservative Party, so given the state that the country’s in (never mind the governing party) the only appropriate title can be:

We’re f*****.

It's all a bit of a clusterTrussterf**k.

The long term economic and reputational damage is going to be a bitter pill to swallow.

[Torrain]

Very kind of Truss and Hunt to give Private Eye a cover for next week’s edition:

The gags basically write themselves - “we’re the only ones left!”

[Torrain]

It’s been pointed out to me that the caretaker, interim chancellor Zahawi lasted longer than his ‘permanent’ replacement. Which isn’t important, but it is sort of wild.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1581032339635044352
Collapse your government speed run

Coffey’s quote in the article “we’re going to prove the flipping OBR wrong” makes me worry that some in the cabinet have learnt nothing from the chaos of the past week.

 Thinking you had a better grasp of the UK economy than *checks notes* employed government economists (with backgrounds in mathematics rather than classics) is how we got into this mess in the first place.

They have the democratic right to make policy, but ignoring every warning along the way (see Tom Scholar, Rishi Sunak, and every economist other than Minford) is just political malpractice.

[Torrain]

Hunt's first media round as chancellor is very on-brand. He's said all departments will be forced to make efficiency statements, and just repeated "all departments" when asked if Dept. of Health funding would be ring-fenced. Potentially quite a fight on his hand getting that past the Commons, especially given the current funding issues with the NHS, and the waiting time crisis.

He also implied that the UK would draw back from it's target to spend 3% of GDP on defence by the end of the decade - which Ben Wallace has previously briefed to the press is a red line for his resignation. Will be interesting to see who blinks first - given that losing either minister would likely start a resignation spiral that could see Truss out in days rather than weeks or months.

The FT has a good overview: https://www.ft.com/content/e4c1191e-b085-4929-87e8-ae8c4f1d33d9

Defence spending debate covered in the Telegraph live-blog: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/15/liz-truss-appoints-jeremy-hunt-new-chancellor-corporation-tax/

[Torrain]

The Times: Chemists to prescribe antibiotics under Coffey health plan

Please, make it stop.

Coffey's literally admitted today that she's handed over half-finished antibiotic prescriptions to family to treat colds. That's literally the worst, and most mis-informed thing you can do with antibiotics. It's almost impressively bad.

I'm all for giving pharmacists more power (to reduce pressure on GPs) - but antibiotics require clear diagnosis of a bacterial infection - and education to prevent their usage for viral infections (where they do precisely nothing). Having worked in a chemist during my undergrad, there are some very quick and imprecise decisions made at rush hours, and there are a concerning number of people badgering you for antibiotics, (which they don't know you can't give them) for their tickly throats etc.

Given the current antibiotic-resistant bacterial epidemic in India, a result of lax antibiotic prescription law over there, it's simply malpractise to repeat that mistake here.

[Torrain]

There's an obvious flaw with that plan, and that's the need to ensure an unopposed return.

Isn't the easiest way for the grey-suited types to do that just to set an unreasonably high nomination threshold?

I'm not talking a majority of MPs (that would be way too inflammatory), but surely Brady is tempted to set it at either 100 MPs (max 3 possible candidates) or 150 MPs (max two candidates), which a Sunak-Mordaunt team should be able to clear (and potentially secure enough nominations to cut anyone else off from running...), unlike almost any other candidate.

I guess the risk for the party is that either Boris coralls the anti-Sunak vote, or a Braverman-type becomes the defacto candidate of the Right, with one just making the threshold, forcing a membership ballot.

It all goes back to the fact that its nigh-impossible to get 200, let alone 300 Tory MPs to agree on anything other than their opposition to a snap-election these days...