Probably as good as it can get here barring an absolute bloodbath for Trump. So many don't realize that Clinton didn't even come close to hitting the bottom with white rural voters in NC, and NC's growth elsewhere is only enough to barely offset any further rural losses under optimal conditions. This has been an ongoing phenomenon in every post-2008 election.
I'm fully expecting this is the year that GA leapfrogs NC margin-wise.
NC had a lightning fast D trend in 04 and 08, just like in VA. It seemed liked after Obama won NC in 08 that NC was a future D state, and was one cycle behind VA. NC did trend 1 point D in 2012, and then a few decimal points D in 2016. People must be over hyping the Research Triangle's growth in NC.
The (good) Sunbelt states had almost unimaginable growth between 2002-2007; it's part of the reason VA swung 14 points, NC 13 points and GA 11 points between '04 and '08. Arguably the size and composition of growth in GA was more influential in the '08 margin than in the other states (where persuasion played a greater role).
Of course, when the housing market collapsed (followed by the recession), states like GA, NC & VA saw their out-of-state growth essentially cease for several years. Obama '08 in NC enjoyed the benefits of both that immense, fleeting out-of-state growth and the ancestral branding loyalty that comes with a closed primary state where one party dominance was all-encompassing (for the most part) up until that point; it's easy to forget that NC has only had 3 GOP governors in the past 100 years, and only 1 (McCrory; 1 term) in the 21st century. The latter effect has continued to play more of a role in rural areas than people know, but it's wearing off quickly. Whites in NC could fall to 25% D under the right circumstances (was 31% in 2012 and 29-30% in 2016).
