Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Updated 1m ago
33% REPORTED
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Patty Pansing Brooks
Democrat 22,372 +57.0%57.0%
Mike Flood
Republican 16,894 +43.0%43.0
Total reported
39,266

WOW!!!

Is this upset level results ?

If it holds yes. District hasn't changed much in shape and it was Trump+14 in 2020.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/Will_Bauer_/status/1541953265285435394
seems like the current results are a mix of Lancaster county and Madison County.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Updated 1m ago
33% REPORTED
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Patty Pansing Brooks
Democrat 22,372 +57.0%57.0%
Mike Flood
Republican 16,894 +43.0%43.0
Total reported
39,266

WOW!!!

Is this upset level results ?

I'm going to guess these are almost all from Lancaster County.

A lot of lancaster but there is some rural stuff mixed in. Also Brooks is carrying Sarpy so far!

[Senator Incitatus]

What are the dynamics here?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Updated 1m ago
33% REPORTED
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Patty Pansing Brooks
Democrat 22,372 +57.0%57.0%
Mike Flood
Republican 16,894 +43.0%43.0
Total reported
39,266

WOW!!!

Is this upset level results ?

I'm going to guess these are almost all from Lancaster County.

OK I reviewed it and actually not, Lancaster County is a bit ahead of the district at 46% in when the whole district is 36% but a chunk of Sarpy County (Omaha suburbs) is also in the district and Brooks is winning that with only 24% in. Of course there's no guarantee the remaining portion is Democratic...Sarpy is actually a Republican county, but the district wraps around the Iowa border to take in the eastern part which is most Democratic, probably as part of a soft gerrymander to give NE-02 a more Republican chunk of it.

[walleye26]

Are a lot of these reports early votes or Election Day? Does anybody know what NE reports first?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Updated 1m ago
33% REPORTED
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Patty Pansing Brooks
Democrat 22,372 +57.0%57.0%
Mike Flood
Republican 16,894 +43.0%43.0
Total reported
39,266

WOW!!!

Is this upset level results ?

I'm going to guess these are almost all from Lancaster County.

A lot of lancaster but there is some rural stuff mixed in. Also Brooks is carrying Sarpy so far!

The big question is which part of Sarpy is in. If it's almost all of the Democratic areas then it'll definitely swing R from here on and that's not really that impressive. But we really don't know.

[Politician]

WTF

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's mostly early vote, scrap what I said.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are a lot of these reports early votes or Election Day? Does anybody know what NE reports first?

Actually that's a good question. Like check out this from the Nebraska SoS site: https://electionresults.nebraska.gov/resultsSW.aspx?text=Race&type=CG&map=DIST

319/414 precincts partially reporting but 0/414 fully reporting. That implies these are just one type of vote, be it mail, early or election day...but we don't know which.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From Geoffrey Skelley on the 538 live blog:

Well, well, well, this is interesting. We’re looking at all the primaries tonight, but there’s also a special election in Nebraska’s 1st District for the remainder of the term in the current Congress. And now we’re on a surprise watch: Democratic state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks is leading by about 11 points right now over Republican state Sen. Mike Flood, with 36 percent reported per the Associated Press. Now, before we go crazy, it does look like a fair bit of rural turf in this relatively red district hasn’t reported, but still, this is not at all what we expected to see here. I have a hypothesis: the overturning of Roe v. Wade has juiced Democratic turnout in a super low-turnout special election (Nebraska doesn’t have other notable elections on the ballot; its primary was in May).

[walleye26]

It's mostly early vote, scrap what I said.

So in other words, she will lose this lead as the night goes on.

[Senator Incitatus]

I'm guessing Brooks will still lose, but it will be far closer than anyone expected.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's mostly early vote, scrap what I said.

So in other words, she will lose this lead as the night goes on.

Probably, but she does look likely to overrun Biden. So...we might have our first test case as to if the Roe overturn is boosting Democratic turnout.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

From Geoffrey Skelley on the 538 live blog:

Well, well, well, this is interesting. We’re looking at all the primaries tonight, but there’s also a special election in Nebraska’s 1st District for the remainder of the term in the current Congress. And now we’re on a surprise watch: Democratic state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks is leading by about 11 points right now over Republican state Sen. Mike Flood, with 36 percent reported per the Associated Press. Now, before we go crazy, it does look like a fair bit of rural turf in this relatively red district hasn’t reported, but still, this is not at all what we expected to see here. I have a hypothesis: the overturning of Roe v. Wade has juiced Democratic turnout in a super low-turnout special election (Nebraska doesn’t have other notable elections on the ballot; its primary was in May).

His theory doesn't really hold up with the fact that this is all mail/early vote though

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I mean there's a small chance dems outperform in the election day vote if a row effect exists, as the mail-in and early vote was mostly cast before the descion

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Per the NY Times estimates of remaining votes though, Brooks would have to lose what's left in Lancaster County about 57-43 to match Biden's percentage.

The only other counties in enough to extrapolate from are Sarpy (won't do because of the county split) and Dodge, and in Dodge Flood is underrunning Trump by 3.7 points, so with 50% in he'd need to win the rest about 68.5-31.5 to match Trump. Not impossible I guess.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

No matter how unlikely it is, a Dem upset in NE-01 would be absolutely insane.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

No matter how unlikely it is, a Dem upset in NE-01 would be absolutely insane.

It'll 100% be a rental but it'd be worth it for The Discourse alone.

[Pink Panther]

On CNN, Brooks is leading by 11 points while 61% of the vote has reported. Even though there's still a good chance of that lead evaporating as more vote comes in, this was clearly affected by the Dobbs ruling. I don't know any other reason for this.

[Pink Panther]

On CNN, Brooks is leading by 11 points while 61% of the vote has reported. Even though there's still a good chance of that lead evaporating as more vote comes in, this was clearly affected by the Dobbs ruling. I don't know any other reason for this.

And 10% more of the vote just came in, and the lead is now down to five

[Mexican Wolf]

Now it's down to a 5% lead with 71% of the vote in. It'll probably flip soon, but if Brooks holds on to a narrow lead, it'll still be a huge upset.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lancaster County is 82% in and the district is 71% in, so not going to hold. Still...going to an impressive swing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a weird side note, but it's weird to think about how theoretically NE Rs wanting to unpack NE-02 could lead to a 2D-1R delegation at some point this decade, even if NE stays pretty firmly R overall. NE-03 is a very effective pack.

Anyways it's good to see Dems appear to be matching Biden in this special election. Again though these can have weird dynamics.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Brooks fell behind in Sarpy but still lots of lancaster out and still leading by 5%....