Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Ferguson97]

Another dump of about 3500 just dropped.

Peltola 49%
Begich 26%
Palin 25%

If the final result is Pelolta 50.1% does she win?

[Brittain33]

Another dump of about 3500 just dropped.

Peltola 49%
Begich 26%
Palin 25%

If the final result is Pelolta 50.1% does she win?

The batch was 49%. She’s far from 50%.

[soundchaser]

Another dump of about 3500 just dropped.

Peltola 49%
Begich 26%
Palin 25%

If the final result is Pelolta 50.1% does she win?

She probably needs to be at 40-41% in the first round to stand a chance. It'll be close either way.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another dump of about 3500 just dropped.

Peltola 49%
Begich 26%
Palin 25%

If the final result is Pelolta 50.1% does she win?

Yes, if one candidate had a majority of the first-round votes, they would be elected.  But as noted above, the 49% was only for that batch, and there's no way she'll get to 50%+1 overall.

[wbrocks67]

So off current projections Peltola is at 47% against Palin.

How does that work out? If there's at least 50-75K votes left, Peltola seems like she should easily be able to get to 40-42% of the first round vote, which easily puts her into contention with Palin for round 2.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So off current projections Peltola is at 47% against Palin.

How does that work out? If there's at least 50-75K votes left, Peltola seems like she should easily be able to get to 40-42% of the first round vote, which easily puts her into contention with Palin for round 2.

A polling expert said 9.5% to Peltola from the RCV.

[soundchaser]

So off current projections Peltola is at 47% against Palin.

How does that work out? If there's at least 50-75K votes left, Peltola seems like she should easily be able to get to 40-42% of the first round vote, which easily puts her into contention with Palin for round 2.

A polling expert said 9.5% to Peltola from the RCV.

9.5% added to her final result in the first round. Still a lot of votes to go before that percentage comes into play.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So off current projections Peltola is at 47% against Palin.

How does that work out? If there's at least 50-75K votes left, Peltola seems like she should easily be able to get to 40-42% of the first round vote, which easily puts her into contention with Palin for round 2.

A polling expert said 9.5% to Peltola from the RCV.

9.5% added to her final result in the first round. Still a lot of votes to go before that percentage comes into play.

Do we know when we get another vote dump?

[soundchaser]

Do we know when we get another vote dump?

I think the technical answer is "¯\_(ツ)_/¯"

(Not until tomorrow, at least.)

[wbrocks67]

So off current projections Peltola is at 47% against Palin.

How does that work out? If there's at least 50-75K votes left, Peltola seems like she should easily be able to get to 40-42% of the first round vote, which easily puts her into contention with Palin for round 2.

A polling expert said 9.5% to Peltola from the RCV.

9.5% added to her final result in the first round. Still a lot of votes to go before that percentage comes into play.

Right, so I think the poll came into play here, basically saying that when Mary got 41% in the first round against Palin, it then went to about 51/49 in the 2nd round. So, the 9.5-10% is about right.

So key here is for her to hit that 41% mark or higher.

[windjammer]

Looking at cynic's estimation on twitter, the dem candidate is going to end up at 39%. If that is true I think Palin is going to win this.

[wbrocks67]

Looking at cynic's estimation on twitter, the dem candidate is going to end up at 39%. If that is true I think Palin is going to win this.

Depends also on how many ballots are out, he says 18-30k, but I've also seen as high as 50k.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Looking at cynic's estimation on twitter, the dem candidate is going to end up at 39%. If that is true I think Palin is going to win this.

Ew. This really is going to be the worst freshman class of Republicans ever!

[GeorgiaModerate]

From yesterday:

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1559882241743982592

[Progressive Pessimist]

From yesterday:

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1559882241743982592

I will always be fascinated at how Alaska is such a reverse of the political geography in nearly every other state.

[It’s so Joever]

From yesterday:

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1559882241743982592

I will always be fascinated at how Alaska is such a reverse of the political geography in nearly every other state.

Isnt Hawaii also that?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

From yesterday:

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1559882241743982592

I will always be fascinated at how Alaska is such a reverse of the political geography in nearly every other state.

Isnt Hawaii also that?

Yes, but in Hawaii it's 80% blue vs 70% blue.

[windjammer]

Btw,
I don't know where to post this but.

It is true that according to the polls inflation is more important than abortion for voters.

I have been Reading that for some twitter pundits and for some posters, the abortion issue is going to fade away. I absolutely don't believe so as to me this is wishful thinking from pro life people. People are so passionate about this issue so if you really think that they are going to forget about it "with Time" you're deadly wrong. Clearly an unpopular ruling that is impacting their lives and additionnally the evangelical base of the GOP is going to constantly push to ban abortion even in case of rape.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Btw,
I don't know where to post this but.

It is true that according to the polls inflation is more important than abortion for voters.

I have been Reading that for some twitter pundits and for some posters, the abortion issue is going to fade away. I absolutely don't believe so as to me this is wishful thinking from pro life people. People are so passionate about this issue so if you really think that they are going to forget about it "with Time" you're deadly wrong. Clearly an unpopular ruling that is impacting their lives and additionnally the evangelical base of the GOP is going to constantly push to ban abortion even in case of rape.

Well the horror stories (read USGD and that's about half of it) keep it in the news, while inflation held to zero last month.

While inflation still has a plurality, it used to be like 40% and now it's more like 25%.

[UncleSam]

Btw,
I don't know where to post this but.

It is true that according to the polls inflation is more important than abortion for voters.

I have been Reading that for some twitter pundits and for some posters, the abortion issue is going to fade away. I absolutely don't believe so as to me this is wishful thinking from pro life people. People are so passionate about this issue so if you really think that they are going to forget about it "with Time" you're deadly wrong. Clearly an unpopular ruling that is impacting their lives and additionnally the evangelical base of the GOP is going to constantly push to ban abortion even in case of rape.

Well the horror stories (read USGD and that's about half of it) keep it in the news, while inflation held to zero last month.

While inflation still has a plurality, it used to be like 40% and now it's more like 25%.

Inflation was literally not zero, it was still like 8% annually. It just didn’t increase over the prior month.

Very annoyed that people keep posting this blatantly untrue misunderstanding in the presidents’ part of how inflation works.

Anyway yes abortion will remain impactful through November but it does seem as though the impact it has will be less then than it would have been over the summer. Such is the nature of politics.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Btw,
I don't know where to post this but.

It is true that according to the polls inflation is more important than abortion for voters.

I have been Reading that for some twitter pundits and for some posters, the abortion issue is going to fade away. I absolutely don't believe so as to me this is wishful thinking from pro life people. People are so passionate about this issue so if you really think that they are going to forget about it "with Time" you're deadly wrong. Clearly an unpopular ruling that is impacting their lives and additionnally the evangelical base of the GOP is going to constantly push to ban abortion even in case of rape.

Well the horror stories (read USGD and that's about half of it) keep it in the news, while inflation held to zero last month.

While inflation still has a plurality, it used to be like 40% and now it's more like 25%.

Inflation was literally not zero, it was still like 8% annually. It just didn’t increase over the prior month.

Very annoyed that people keep posting this blatantly untrue misunderstanding in the presidents’ part of how inflation works.

Anyway yes abortion will remain impactful through November but it does seem as though the impact it has will be less then than it would have been over the summer. Such is the nature of politics.

Month-over-Month was zero. That's what the headlines said. Obviously YoY is still high, because that's how math works.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1560399780219682818

[UncleSam]

Btw,
I don't know where to post this but.

It is true that according to the polls inflation is more important than abortion for voters.

I have been Reading that for some twitter pundits and for some posters, the abortion issue is going to fade away. I absolutely don't believe so as to me this is wishful thinking from pro life people. People are so passionate about this issue so if you really think that they are going to forget about it "with Time" you're deadly wrong. Clearly an unpopular ruling that is impacting their lives and additionnally the evangelical base of the GOP is going to constantly push to ban abortion even in case of rape.

Well the horror stories (read USGD and that's about half of it) keep it in the news, while inflation held to zero last month.

While inflation still has a plurality, it used to be like 40% and now it's more like 25%.

Inflation was literally not zero, it was still like 8% annually. It just didn’t increase over the prior month.

Very annoyed that people keep posting this blatantly untrue misunderstanding in the presidents’ part of how inflation works.

Anyway yes abortion will remain impactful through November but it does seem as though the impact it has will be less then than it would have been over the summer. Such is the nature of politics.

Month-over-Month was zero. That's what the headlines said. Obviously YoY is still high, because that's how math works.

No, that is not how the math works because inflation is not a month to month statistic, it is an annualized statistic due to how it fluctuates. No serious economist would ever quote this number as being of any significance whatsoever, the inflation rate in July was 8.5% annualized over last year, same as it was in June. Anything else is literally misinformation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moderator note: the inflation discussion is off-topic for this thread.  Take it elsewhere (USGD would be a good board, and there's probably already at least one thread there).  Future posts on the topic in this thread will be deleted.

[JMT]

When should we expect to get another batch of votes counted in Alaska?