MD-SEN 2024: Cardin retiring, Hogan IN

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trone should be fine but Hogan might be able to pull it off against Alsobrooks. She is very similar to the typical Anthony Brown, Ben Jealous tier candidates he has faced in the past. And if Trump improves in Maryland a bit, that 30 pt defecit suddenly becomes a more manageable 25 point one. Factor in that Alsobrooks isn't a self funder like Trone, and suburban whites using Hogan and Trumps contrast to justify ticket splitting, a Senator Hogan starts becoming more and more of a possibility.

[JMT]

Larry Hogan’s only semi-serious primary opponent has now dropped out and endorsed him. Seems like Hogan will definitely win the nomination:

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1758483382650941896?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno...

[Unelectable Bystander]

I don’t buy Hogan making this seat competitive until I see it with my own eyes.

It is worth mentioning R’s virtually never recruit A+ candidates and clear the field for them. Another sign of improved leadership under Daines.

If we are still talking about this race in 8 months then it will probably end up like Tennessee 2018. Not close margin wise but a sign that the national environment is gone.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't be competitive because Trone is gonna win the primary

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Raskin is all in for Angela.

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1759349198367953022?s=46

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1760826947104305499?t=2zzxweHaqwnEkAnZSdiNRw&am...

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1760826947104305499?t=2zzxweHaqwnEkAnZSdiNRw&am...

Good. Kelly Schultz almost certainly wouldn't have won, but the gubernatorial race would have been considerably closer and the MD GOP would have done much better downballot.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any path to a Hogan GE victory will require Hogan winning back a large number of college-educated moderates and softer liberals who really do not like Trump and the current state of the Republican Party.

If Hogan wants any chance, he needs to carve out concrete positions around questions like if he will support McConnel for speaker, if he will support national legislation to enshrine abortion, ect, ect.

Any failure to take clear stances of these things will quickly erode trust and allow Dems to attack him in ways that close any path to victory.

Keeping this at safe D for now. Nearly everything has to go right for Hogan for me to move it to likely D.

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1760826947104305499?t=2zzxweHaqwnEkAnZSdiNRw&am...

I am begging the GOP to burn their money on this race.

[Mr. Smith]

Hogan's got the same chance Bredesen has in 2018...or Espy for that matter.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hogan's got the same chance Bredesen has in 2018...or Espy for that matter.

He has a better chance but we are targeting TX too, Allred, Brown and Tester according to polls are doing better than Ds are in MD

Didn't the DS say the same about Robert Ehlrich over OMalley and Hogan over Anthony Brown, they couldn't win

As of now, Hogan has the advantage with Biden losing in polls that's not QU

If Biden loses we will wind up with 49 seats if Biden wins we can wind up with TX and NEB cancelling our MD and WV

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Any path to a Hogan GE victory will require Hogan winning back a large number of college-educated moderates and softer liberals who really do not like Trump and the current state of the Republican Party.

If Hogan wants any chance, he needs to carve out concrete positions around questions like if he will support McConnel for speaker, if he will support national legislation to enshrine abortion, ect, ect.

Any failure to take clear stances of these things will quickly erode trust and allow Dems to attack him in ways that close any path to victory.

Keeping this at safe D for now. Nearly everything has to go right for Hogan for me to move it to likely D.

Hogan will likely come out in support of abortion rights and Obamacare. I think Mitch McConnell is going to let him say what he needs to say to have the best chance of getting elected.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Hogan's got the same chance Bredesen has in 2018...or Espy for that matter.

Hogan has a much bigger hill to climb than those two did.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Any path to a Hogan GE victory will require Hogan winning back a large number of college-educated moderates and softer liberals who really do not like Trump and the current state of the Republican Party.

If Hogan wants any chance, he needs to carve out concrete positions around questions like if he will support McConnel for speaker, if he will support national legislation to enshrine abortion, ect, ect.

Any failure to take clear stances of these things will quickly erode trust and allow Dems to attack him in ways that close any path to victory.

Keeping this at safe D for now. Nearly everything has to go right for Hogan for me to move it to likely D.

Hogan will likely come out in support of abortion rights and Obamacare. I think Mitch McConnell is going to let him say what he needs to say to have the best chance of getting elected.

.

.I agree that Hogan can win, they said the same thing about Hogan chances with Anthony Brown

[wbrocks67]

He's also now saying he won't vote for Biden or Trump.

https://twitter.com/DavidABergstein/status/1765740766767239211?s=20

[Kung Fu Kenny]

He's also now saying he won't vote for Biden or Trump.

https://twitter.com/DavidABergstein/status/1765740766767239211?s=20

Taking this opportunity (and every other opportunity that arises) to remind folks that anti-Trump Republicans are almost exclusively comprised of Bush and Reagan Republicans...of course it's not surprising that they're not actually "moderate", they're just nicer in tone.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

His chances of winning went from 0.8% to 0.6% with that interview.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is a poll shows him winning by the same amount Trone is leading the primary 23 we just have to wait for another poll

[UWS]

Alsobrooks has a decent chance of winning the Democratic nomination in Maryland thanks to AA support. As she did during the most recent primary debate, she is attacking Trone for his donations to pro-life anti-abortion Republicans which will hurt David Trone as abortion has become a key issue after the repeal of Roe v. Wade.

https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/politics-power/national-politics/alsobrooks-trone-forum-senate-I6EPVZCFFRFUTMAH4UFALPAY3A/

Trone also supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership which could hurt Trone among progressive voters

[Woody]

Impact on his primary run?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/03/21/david-trone-congress-racial-insult/

Senate hopeful Rep. David Trone (D) used a racial slur during a congressional budget hearing Thursday and later apologized, saying he misspoke and did not know what the word meant.

Trone dropped a derogatory word for Black people into a brief speech praising President Biden’s tax proposals toward the end of a friendly exchange with the director of the Office of Budget and Management.

“So this Republican ji----o that it’s the tax rate that’s stopping business investment, it’s just completely faulty by people who have never run a business,....”

“Today while attempting to use the word bugaboo in a hearing, I misspoke and mistakenly used a phrase that is offensive. Upon learning the meaning of the word I was deeply disappointed to have accidentally used it, and I apologize,” the statement said.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I can’t believe there are people who actually think this guy is going to overcome a likely Biden +30 win in the state.

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1770425360284348478?s=46

[Kung Fu Kenny]

I believe that he used it by accident, but I definitely don't believe he doesn't know what it means. He used the wrong word, but it still exists in his brain. That's not a fake word that you just make up on the spot when you intend to use a different word, like "irregardless" or "half-hazard" or something.

Either way, I doubt this has any impact on the primary and it probably won't be a news story in a week.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

"I'm not going to speculate on any issue" buddy you are running for the UNITED STATES SENATE, why would you act surprised when people ask you your positions on issues??

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, he's done. All he has is name recognition so far, and that won't buoy him by the time a Democratic nominee is set.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/WesternLensman/status/1771148570734805227?t=Ge6PJIHylAl9X7cV...