2020 New York Redistricting

[Progressive Pessimist]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

[Progressive Pessimist]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

[Progressive Pessimist]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

Sure, but that's nearly impossible given the geography of most states.

[Progressive Pessimist]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

Sure, but that's nearly impossible given the geography of most states.

Dems should be able to win the PA and MI houses in a half decent year with the current maps.   

That still wouldn't be enough for an Electoral College win under these hypothetical rules.

[Progressive Pessimist]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

Sure, but that's nearly impossible given the geography of most states.

Dems should be able to win the PA and MI houses in a half decent year with the current maps.   

That still wouldn't be enough for an Electoral College win under these hypothetical rules.

They should also be able to tie the Arizona legislature and win the house in the NH legislature in this scenario.  With that, they would be able to win the electoral college.  Dems can’t keep losing winnable state legislatures and hope to survive.

True. If it does come to this hopefully more attention than ever can be given to state legislature races, and maybe American voters will take note.

It's still such an asinine idea though. Why does having a simple popular vote-one person; one vote system in this country have to be so difficult?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I endorse ProgressiveModerate's gerrymander. I really hope an influential New York Democrat somehow comes across this thread.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Expect a redraw now:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/10/nyregion/hochul-chief-judge.html

If the Democrats just need to play it a bit more conservative, then the best thing to do is still pair Ithaca with Syracuse and not split up the Albany area like that map above. One R seat on Long Island and four R seats Upstate probably works. Maybe a Lean D but only Lean seat based around Staten Island.

yes, Wilson is a strong signal here that the redistricting fight is a serious challenge - reminder he said the Hochulmander was legal and fair in his dissent.

However, this gets to the second point, which is that the Hochulmander is not coming back, even if the legislature can remap again. The 2022 elections shook up the players in congressional NY politics so one could expect different priorities and goals. For example:

- SPM is gone and him the desire to make NY-18 drawn to his specifications. But there is now a republican in NY-17. so one might theorize that the lower valley districts around the 2022 results in the regions seats. Also gone is Jones's outreach and curious appeal among the Hasidic towns in the region.

- Brandon Williams is not John Katko, so not as much resources need to devoted to Syracuse as before. Also the original map seemed to be designed to bring Brindisi back but he didn't bite.

- Claudia Tenney showed she could hop districts and still get elected, so there's not much point trying to force upstate R v R primaries in the safe seats.

- There are three additional GOP representatives in districts drawn to reelect democrats on the Hochulmander, not to mention two more who were targeted by that map but got more reasonable seats under the remap. One can imagine Dems prioritizing the first group more than before and perhaps the second a bit less, especially if former players like Suozzi want to come back (even though in his case the battle is already won).

- Goldman effectively replacing Maloney means that there are now different desires coming out of the Manhattan region's districts, and would certainly have cascading effects on things like what the Hochulmander's NY-10.

- NEW: Suozzi is all but running for his old seats vs Santos. He would probably prefer a district that more resembles the 2020 version than the new one which heads towards the southern Republican-leaning part of Oyster Bay, even though he's been elected county-wide before.

- In general, the increased scrutiny placed on new lines implemented during mid-decade remaps means tentacles and visual peculiarities are not appreciated, even though biased partisanship is achievable through other means.

I agree with you here. I am jaded enough to want a New York gerrymander, but for the reasons you laid out, it absolutely should not be a re-do of the 2022 proposal and to decrease the chances of backfiring really consider taking the current incumbents into account and how best to either protect or oust them.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lol

https://twitter.com/MrSantosNY/status/1734675608737612045?s=20

Does he do parties?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wasserman keeps on wishcasting that Dems are gonna control themselves but it doesn't appear there's any reason for them to.

And frankly, they shouldn't.

[Progressive Pessimist]

My upstate proposal



Every Dem seat in this map would have held in 2022.

Hideous, but effective.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If NY Dems fail to eliminate Lawler, they have failed entirely. He is probably the most insufferable accident of 2022. (At least Santos was and is entertaining.)

Even Santos seems to hate him the most of all his New York colleagues.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not against another upstate Republican vote sink.

Then again, it might just be me having low standards with how the state’s congressional delegation looks now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's political theatre ya'll! It's going to be an aggressive gerrymander

I certainly hope so. Democrats need to play dirty and shoring up Suozzi and pretty much just netting NY-22 for sure was really not worth any of this.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I’d be happy with this had the R states been fair but they never are - so this is a disgusting move that makes it easier for the fascist party to gain power

I wouldn't say easier, but about the same.